Perhaps. When you've dealt with the wilful obtuseness of the likes of Kermit, and a complete unwillingness to actually accept a spectrum of opinion, it becomes exasperating.

He was essentially arguing (as he continued to do in his follow-up) that an economic forecast from one side is any less a "leap in the dark" than a forecast from the other side. It is either intellectual dishonesty or complete ignorance. I'm not sure I care too much either way.

So yes, I offer Kermit an apology and a shrug of the shoulders. He's made his mind up, and no alternative economic models nor dissenting opinion will change it. Likewise I. The difference is, I've formed my opinion from a spectrum of sources, weighted by their gains and vested interests.

I'd also like to apologise to nickgusset for use of his Surname. I'll add I don't mind being called "Monkey", but it's a matter of preference. For the record, I at least find his replies (for the most part) more considered.

Interestingly, this is also why I'm voting out, not because I necessarily think the UK will be better off in my lifetime, but so as to at least obtain the capacity to make those changes that are necessary to the UK national interest. The EU should exist to facilitate the interests of member states, not to dictate corporate agendas.

I doubt that any government is going to implement the reasons why I want to separate the UK from the EU, but it would at least retain that capacity for future governments who may be more socially orientated.

Thank you Nicholas for your response and your links.

To give you a straight answer, yes i do have some reservations.

Although I don't think anything will change (much) for the first to years post Brexit, I believe as the deadline does tick away there will be some slight economic turbulence. In order to demonstrate that I do infact have a sense of humour, I will explain my reservations as depicted by the popular motion film, Interstellar.

I believe that as our spaceship 'Endurance' launches (a Brexit vote) away from our dying planet (the EU), lots of people back home will be like "oh well what now?" while others aimlessly screech "THERE ISN'T ANYTHING WRONG WITH OUR PLANET AHHHHHHHHHH". Then comes the awkward wait as Endurance (the UK) just drifts towards the wormhole by Saturn (the two year notice period). As the UK finally reaches the worm hole things will be a bit shaky for a few moments as the UK passes through it, David Cameron's disembodied hand will appear at this point and shake the hand on his successor. The UK will then probably have the idea of leaving the EU but staying in the single market, it will plop itself down on a seemingly hospitable planet only to discover it faces an tidal wave of further EU sanctions and freedom of labour demands. After wasting alot of time stuck on the Wave Planet (the single market), the UK will finally escape again with a slight amount of uncertainty. Our solution will be to look to our MP's (Matt Damon) who while at first pretending to be on the side of the Brexit majority, only want to go home to the failing EU. There will be a constitutional crisis with many in the 'Join' camp just yelling "AAAAAHHHHH RACISM EVERYWHERE" as they launch their political coup. They will try to manually re-enter the EU but be blasted out to the void (back benches) by their own incompetence. Boris Johnson with the help of a robotic Michael Gove will save the UK from crashing, but at a terrible cost of time and people patience. With not enough willpower from the electorate we will then have no choice but to eject our politicians into the blackhole of trade deal negotiations with huge superpowers such as the USA, China, India etc. Somehow, our politicians will be able to signal to the ordinary folk back in the UK that its entirely possible for everyone to leave the idea of trading with a failing EU and instead step into whole new galaxy as we look at what the BRIC country planets and commonwealth solar systems have to offer.

We all live happily ever after, except for last remaining hold outs of the rapidly receding 'JOIN' campaign who sit in our new found economic boom with their arms folding saying "I miss the days when we had to bail the Greeks out".

Perhaps. When you've dealt with the wilful obtuseness of the likes of Kermit, and a complete unwillingness to actually accept a spectrum of opinion, it becomes exasperating.

He was essentially arguing (as he continued to do in his follow-up) that an economic forecast from one side is any less a "leap in the dark" than a forecast from the other side. It is either intellectual dishonesty or complete ignorance. I'm not sure I care too much either way.

So yes, I offer Kermit an apology and a shrug of the shoulders. He's made his mind up, and no alternative economic models nor dissenting opinion will change it. Likewise I. The difference is, I've formed my opinion from a spectrum of sources, weighted by their gains and vested interests.

I'd also like to apologise to nickgusset for use of his Surname. I'll add I don't mind being called "Monkey", but it's a matter of preference. For the record, I at least find his replies (for the most part) more considered.

What exactly are these projections based on that's more tangible than hard cash?

Let's use a conservative estimate on £100m after rebates.

+£52bn
+Services not being used by EU nationals
+Tax from UK produced items
= Tariffs on EU goods in and out
-EU VAT
-EU Income tax

It's quite easy to pick only the figures from one column and that's clearly how these politicised predictions are fabricated and if you're using an assumed EU growth against post Brexit UK contraction then you're doing the same.

And what you don't seem to be able to take on board is that the Brexiteers economic projections are much more based on optimistic and somewhat airy-fairy hopes built on nothing more at the moment than hot air and bullishness: 'That'll be an extra £350mill a week for the NHS guv'. Whereas EU economic projections are based are they not on things such as markets, contemporary conditions, future variables, historical flow charts, evidence-based analysis, etc. Real stuff.

Have a look a historical EU economic growth predictions over the last 15 or so years. Then let's see if still want to propose the two schools of predictions as being deserving of the same level of critical analysis. That they are both as you think, essentially, the same thing.

The EU is real. There are facts and figures from past and present to fall back on when making predictions.

Brexit and the future within exists only in your head.

Tell you what though. I have a prediction. I predict you will come back with some oh so cutting words to make you feel superior and right. It won't wash though. You may be articulate but you are also blinkered and a bit naive.

Edited by Kermit8 (13 Jun 2016 5.32pm)