You've had this opinion over 5 years. It is a FACT we're more likely to survive so until we're just as likely to go down or worse, please, shut up for a while.

To be honest I am not even thinking about us surviving.
For some while I have felt we will be relegated and I am not going to change my opinion.All very depressing and my poor wife has taken the brunt of my despair.

Late goals, unable to close the game,not defending corners properly, only 1 'clean sheet'in 10 games,main scorer on only 2 goals, lack of depth in squad - can only result in relegation.

I think that this post rather sums up your perception. Southampton lose out to a late goal against Arsenal and you take that as evidence that they will survive.

We lose out to a late goal against Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United and you take that as evidence that we will be relegated.

This is no criticism of you. It is perfectly normal to be pessimistic. But, as we have previously agreed, there is every chance that we will survive, and a chance that we will be relegated.

The last time we lost to a team currently in the bottom half was 16th September. I see no reason to think that our form against those sides will be significantly worse than it has been for 6 months in the 4 of the 5 games we have against those sides. Our only game against a top half side is Leicester at home, who we beat 3-0 earlier on in the season, whose season is over, and we've been playing well at Selhurst since 16th September. Even including teams outside the top 6 the only games we've lost since 16th September have been Newcastle Away (which was slightly unfortunate) and Everton Away (when they were in very good form at home).

You'll not be happy until the day we go down, but give it a rest until then maybe? It's quite irritating. You talk about whipping stats off the top of your head, but seem to ignore them completely when it comes to analysing the probabilities of us going down or staying up.

Edited by CambridgeEagle (09 Apr 2018 11.20am)

I talked about one specific incident, which was on Saturday morning, in conversation with a Brighton supporter.

In terms of stats one can use them to state what has actually happened (IE no goals in the last 3 games etc) but also use them for reasons of prognostication and interpret them how one sees fit.

One can talk about not playing teams in the "Top six" etc etc but as Hodgson rightly explained after we played Liverpool, one shouldn't assume that the upcoming 6 games will be easier than the previous 6 games.

I have done some analysis into the probabilities relating to our forthcoming games (I have for some weeks) not only based on stats but other factors as well and they have all pointed to us in the bottom 3.

I appreciate this is a very negative view but all I am doing is expressing what I genuinely believe.Hopefully my analysis is awry and I am totally wrong.

Edited by Willo (09 Apr 2018 11.42am)

I talked about one specific incident, which was on Saturday morning, in conversation with a Brighton supporter.

In terms of stats one can use them to state what has actually happened (IE no goals in the last 3 games etc) but also use them for reasons of prognostication and interpret them how one sees fit.

One can talk about not playing teams in the "Top six" etc etc but as Hodgson rightly explained after we played Liverpool, one shouldn't assume that the upcoming 6 games will be easier than the previous 6 games.

I have done some analysis into the probabilities relating to our forthcoming games (I have for some weeks) not only based on stats but other factors as well and they have all pointed to us in the bottom 3.

I appreciate this is a very negative view but all I am doing is expressing what I genuinely believe.Hopefully my analysis is awry and I am totally wrong.

Edited by Willo (09 Apr 2018 11.42am)