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 Johnny Eagles  berlin 09 Dec 14 8.46am |
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There was a detailed interview on "Westminster Hour" with two polling experts who have done studies using samples of 90,000 people into voting intentions. The overwhelming motivation for people who say they will vote UKIP is not fear but disillusion with the three main parties. The majority of UKIP voters are not deserting another party; most of them haven't been voting at all.
...we must expand...get more pupils...so that the knowledge will spread... |
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We are goin up!  Coulsdon 09 Dec 14 9.00am |
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Quote nickgusset at 09 Dec 2014 7.39am
Oh dear.
The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money. |
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| Pawson Palace Croydon 09 Dec 14 9.23am |
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Quote We are goin up! at 09 Dec 2014 9.00am
Quote nickgusset at 09 Dec 2014 7.39am
Oh dear.
Plough.
Pride of South London |
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| Hoof Hearted 09 Dec 14 10.39am | |
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Quote The White Horse at 08 Dec 2014 5.47pm
Hoof, I'll keep it simple (upon your request): Given Bristol West contains at least 1 ward heavily populated by Asians, why did UKIP get just 1.2% of the vote there in 2010? Even if everyone who wasn't white refused to vote UKIP, the highest possible fraction of white voters voting UKIP was 1 in 70.
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| OknotOK Cockfosters, London 09 Dec 14 10.44am |
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Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 8.46am
There was a detailed interview on "Westminster Hour" with two polling experts who have done studies using samples of 90,000 people into voting intentions. The overwhelming motivation for people who say they will vote UKIP is not fear but disillusion with the three main parties. The majority of UKIP voters are not deserting another party; most of them haven't been voting at all. You would think people disillusioned with the three main parties would have been voting previously? But the rise of anti-establishment candidates and parties is a recognised phenomenon. And UKIP obviously benefit from it. As it would appear are the Greens and the SNP. The SNP holding the balance of power at Westminster would be intriguing as they currently don't vote on any English only issues. So it would lead to the situation Labour was worried about with regards to voting reform anyway - whereby their coalition could be stable and secure when voting on national policy but they could lose every vote related to non-national policies.
"It's almost like a moral decision. Except not really cos noone is going to find out," Jez, Peep Show |
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| sanitycheck 09 Dec 14 10.44am |
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Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 8.46am
There was a detailed interview on "Westminster Hour" with two polling experts who have done studies using samples of 90,000 people into voting intentions. The overwhelming motivation for people who say they will vote UKIP is not fear but disillusion with the three main parties. The majority of UKIP voters are not deserting another party; most of them haven't been voting at all. So most people intending to vote for UKIP didn't vote in previous elections? I'd like to see the study as that sounds like either a very bold claim or a very interesting finding. That aside, saying that those voters are motivated by disillusion and not fear is obviously an extreme simplification of the human condition. People are motivated by all kinds of complex factors and handing them a survey isn't going to draw out some kind of truth. Edited by sanitycheck (09 Dec 2014 11.01am)
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| Johnny Eagles berlin 09 Dec 14 10.52am |
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Quote sanitycheck at 09 Dec 2014 10.44am
Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 8.46am
There was a detailed interview on "Westminster Hour" with two polling experts who have done studies using samples of 90,000 people into voting intentions. The overwhelming motivation for people who say they will vote UKIP is not fear but disillusion with the three main parties. The majority of UKIP voters are not deserting another party; most of them haven't been voting at all. So most people intending to vote for UKIP didn't vote in previous elections? I'd like to see the study as that sounds like either a very bold claim or a very interesting finding. That aside, saying that those voters are motivated by disillusion and not fear is obviously an extreme simplification of the human condition. People are motivated by all kinds of complex factors and handing them a survey isn't going to draw out some kind of truth. Edited by sanitycheck (09 Dec 2014 10.48am) The relevant clip from the programme. The discussion was about who would win how many seats. As far as I recall they reckon: - Labour will do better than last time in England but will get destroyed in Jockland by the Ess n' Peeee - Lib Dems will not get destroyed thanks to a) incumbency and b) their opponents in marginals not doing that well - The Greens will come nowhere because all their voters will go back to Labour - UKIP will damage Tories most, Labour a bit, but not as much as people expect because mostly their votes will come from previous non-voters
I was just providing evidence for an additional and more significant factor (disillusion with the political elite) in response to Seth's assertion (forgive the paraphrasing, Seth) that it was all about fear. Obviously people are motivated by all kinds of complex factors. On the same programme last week there was a review of this book which talks about the primitive and emotional factors which drive voting behaviour. You seem keen to paint me as some kind of simpleton who argues in black and white terms. I think that's unfair.
...we must expand...get more pupils...so that the knowledge will spread... |
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| Johnny Eagles berlin 09 Dec 14 11.04am |
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nnnnngggh more double posting
...we must expand...get more pupils...so that the knowledge will spread... |
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| susmik PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 09 Dec 14 11.31am |
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Quote sanitycheck at 09 Dec 2014 10.44am
Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 8.46am
There was a detailed interview on "Westminster Hour" with two polling experts who have done studies using samples of 90,000 people into voting intentions. The overwhelming motivation for people who say they will vote UKIP is not fear but disillusion with the three main parties. The majority of UKIP voters are not deserting another party; most of them haven't been voting at all. So most people intending to vote for UKIP didn't vote in previous elections? I'd like to see the study as that sounds like either a very bold claim or a very interesting finding. That aside, saying that those voters are motivated by disillusion and not fear is obviously an extreme simplification of the human condition. People are motivated by all kinds of complex factors and handing them a survey isn't going to draw out some kind of truth. Edited by sanitycheck (09 Dec 2014 11.01am) I personally think that quite a few UKIP voters do so to give the major parties a good kick up the backside in the hope that things will change for the better. Politics is a funny thing as is Religion. I was always told "Do not argue about Politics or Religion as there is no ONE answer on either subject!
Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky. |
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Kermit8  Hevon 09 Dec 14 11.39am |
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UKIP is many things to many men it appears and not a club I particularly want to be in with some fans like Nick Griffin hopping aboard. Kinda tells us the direction in which they are probably going. The wrong one.
Big chest and massive boobs |
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| sanitycheck 09 Dec 14 12.31pm |
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Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 10.52am
You seem keen to paint me as some kind of simpleton who argues in black and white terms. I think that's unfair.
It just stood out to me in this thread the number of times you reduced things to arbitrary either/or choices. I don't think you or anyone else here is a simpleton, nor would I ever say that. It's not like you kept calling me a dimwit in this thread or anything I'll watch the video in a bit
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. That's your opinion though of course and you're welcome to it. 
.| Johnny Eagles berlin 09 Dec 14 12.52pm |
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Quote sanitycheck at 09 Dec 2014 12.31pm
Quote Johnny Eagles at 09 Dec 2014 10.52am
You seem keen to paint me as some kind of simpleton who argues in black and white terms. I think that's unfair.
It just stood out to me in this thread the number of times you reduced things to arbitrary either/or choices. I don't think you or anyone else here is a simpleton, nor would I ever say that. It's not like you kept calling me a dimwit in this thread or anything I'll watch the video in a bit
2. I didn't reduce anything to either / or choices. I provided criteria by which you can judge whether someone has a platform (eg, a twitter feed read by 8.6m twits) or not (eg, an angry blog read by Gusset and a half dozen of his loony mates). 3. I said I thought you might be rather dim, because you seemed to mix up my proposed criteria with what you kept calling a "binary view". Admittedly this was provocative. I hope there are no hard feelings. 4. It's a radio clip, not a video.
...we must expand...get more pupils...so that the knowledge will spread... |
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