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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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Stirlingsays 15 Mar 22 1.59pm
Originally posted by Grumbles That's not quite correct. Ukraine solely owned the nuclear weapons on its soil at the breakup of the CIS. At that point they theoretically had possession of 30% of CIS weapons. However to use the strategic ballistic missiles it would have required a total new strategic control structure; which Ukraine could not afford. Russia could not launch them. The silo's were positioned incorrectly for a strike on anyone but the US or Eastern Russia, the cruise missiles were “made non-operational” by the Russians prior to leaving them on Ukrainian soil. On the political side, it was a likely if Ukraine kept the nuclear weapons they would have been at least shunned by both sides. So instead they decided to get rid of them for “compensation” and protection assurances from all sides under the Budapest Memorandum. Nowadays several nationalist parties want them back [for some resason]. Not sure how the Ukraine can own weapons that it didn't pay for nor could operate. Regardless these are pedantic matters now. 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

15 Mar 22 1.59pm

Originally posted by Grumbles

That's not quite correct.

Ukraine solely owned the nuclear weapons on its soil at the breakup of the CIS. At that point they theoretically had possession of 30% of CIS weapons.

However to use the strategic ballistic missiles it would have required a total new strategic control structure; which Ukraine could not afford. Russia could not launch them.

The silo's were positioned incorrectly for a strike on anyone but the US or Eastern Russia, the cruise missiles were “made non-operational” by the Russians prior to leaving them on Ukrainian soil.

On the political side, it was a likely if Ukraine kept the nuclear weapons they would have been at least shunned by both sides.

So instead they decided to get rid of them for “compensation” and protection assurances from all sides under the Budapest Memorandum.

Nowadays several nationalist parties want them back [for some resason].

Not sure how the Ukraine can own weapons that it didn't pay for nor could operate. Regardless these are pedantic matters now.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Grumbles 15 Mar 22 2.03pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays Not sure how the Ukraine can own weapons that it didn't pay for nor could operate. Regardless these are pedantic matters now. Of course it owned them as part of the CIS.
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Grumbles 15 Mar 22 2.03pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Not sure how the Ukraine can own weapons that it didn't pay for nor could operate. Regardless these are pedantic matters now.

Of course it owned them as part of the CIS.

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 15 Mar 22 2.28pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays I hope I'm wrong but I'm starting to think that the peace negotiations aren't that serious and that both sides have settled on their paths. The west/Ukraine might have decided on not agreeing ceasefire terms and instead playing the long game of guerrilla warfare.....that means the cities get flattened and hundreds of thousands of people will die. For the west, the Democrats get to the November elections with them and the wall to wall media blaming everything on Putin. They also get to bleed Russia. Putin then has two decisions to make, provide better peace terms...which give the Ukraine and the US pause for thought ....or flatten the Ukraine and then get as many foreign mercenaries to hold it as possible...and I can see how that would go. Whatever transpires I'm starting to think that the Ukrainian civilians are the least of these power blocks concerns. It's a fecking disaster that was fully avoidable. Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 11.12am) There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about. One of those being that there is nothing we could have done, that would have avoided this. If you believe Ukraine to be a sovereign state, which most of the world, except Putin, does, then you cannot interfere in it any more than he can. It might be in our interests to see a swift end and a settlement which disfigures Ukraine, but that's not ours to negotiate. This is 100% Putin and any blame shifting suggests to me his clever propaganda via social media in the west is working. As it has in other areas in recent years. He is grinding his poison into the wounds which divide us. We are already in Cold war 2. It's going to last the rest of my lifetime and beyond. It will have many consequences, some already apparent, some yet to be seen. Energy and food security will become priorities. We will still need gas and oil whilst we move to renewables and nuclear, which cannot just be turned on. We need a bridge to them. I think Putin will lose. He has made massive miscalculations about the west's resolve and the way Ukrainians think. The economic hardships within Russia will demand his attention more than prolonging a war he now knows he can never win completely. China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so. For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 15 Mar 22 2.28pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I hope I'm wrong but I'm starting to think that the peace negotiations aren't that serious and that both sides have settled on their paths.

The west/Ukraine might have decided on not agreeing ceasefire terms and instead playing the long game of guerrilla warfare.....that means the cities get flattened and hundreds of thousands of people will die.

For the west, the Democrats get to the November elections with them and the wall to wall media blaming everything on Putin. They also get to bleed Russia.

Putin then has two decisions to make, provide better peace terms...which give the Ukraine and the US pause for thought ....or flatten the Ukraine and then get as many foreign mercenaries to hold it as possible...and I can see how that would go.

Whatever transpires I'm starting to think that the Ukrainian civilians are the least of these power blocks concerns.

It's a fecking disaster that was fully avoidable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 11.12am)

There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about.

One of those being that there is nothing we could have done, that would have avoided this. If you believe Ukraine to be a sovereign state, which most of the world, except Putin, does, then you cannot interfere in it any more than he can. It might be in our interests to see a swift end and a settlement which disfigures Ukraine, but that's not ours to negotiate.

This is 100% Putin and any blame shifting suggests to me his clever propaganda via social media in the west is working. As it has in other areas in recent years. He is grinding his poison into the wounds which divide us.

We are already in Cold war 2. It's going to last the rest of my lifetime and beyond. It will have many consequences, some already apparent, some yet to be seen. Energy and food security will become priorities. We will still need gas and oil whilst we move to renewables and nuclear, which cannot just be turned on. We need a bridge to them.

I think Putin will lose. He has made massive miscalculations about the west's resolve and the way Ukrainians think. The economic hardships within Russia will demand his attention more than prolonging a war he now knows he can never win completely.

China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Stirlingsays 15 Mar 22 2.40pm
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about. One of those being that there is nothing we could have done, that would have avoided this. If you believe Ukraine to be a sovereign state, which most of the world, except Putin, does, then you cannot interfere in it any more than he can. It might be in our interests to see a swift end and a settlement which disfigures Ukraine, but that's not ours to negotiate. This is 100% Putin and any blame shifting suggests to me his clever propaganda via social media in the west is working. As it has in other areas in recent years. He is grinding his poison into the wounds which divide us. We are already in Cold war 2. It's going to last the rest of my lifetime and beyond. It will have many consequences, some already apparent, some yet to be seen. Energy and food security will become priorities. We will still need gas and oil whilst we move to renewables and nuclear, which cannot just be turned on. We need a bridge to them. I think Putin will lose. He has made massive miscalculations about the west's resolve and the way Ukrainians think. The economic hardships within Russia will demand his attention more than prolonging a war he now knows he can never win completely. China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so. I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available. You think Putin loses....cool. I think everybody loses, especially the poor. I hope a pathway back can be found either with or without Putin as I regard the odds of surviving cold war 2 without a nuclear attack as less likely than cold war 1.....as at least those past politicians seemed to take it more seriously. There are just too many flash points around the world for this level of distrust and twitchy fingers. I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace. Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm) 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

15 Mar 22 2.40pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about.

China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so.

I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available.

You think Putin loses....cool.

I think everybody loses, especially the poor. I hope a pathway back can be found either with or without Putin as I regard the odds of surviving cold war 2 without a nuclear attack as less likely than cold war 1.....as at least those past politicians seemed to take it more seriously. There are just too many flash points around the world for this level of distrust and twitchy fingers.

I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace.

Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Nicholas91 The Democratic Republic of Kent 15 Mar 22 2.41pm
Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about. One of those being that there is nothing we could have done, that would have avoided this. If you believe Ukraine to be a sovereign state, which most of the world, except Putin, does, then you cannot interfere in it any more than he can. It might be in our interests to see a swift end and a settlement which disfigures Ukraine, but that's not ours to negotiate. This is 100% Putin and any blame shifting suggests to me his clever propaganda via social media in the west is working. As it has in other areas in recent years. He is grinding his poison into the wounds which divide us. We are already in Cold war 2. It's going to last the rest of my lifetime and beyond. It will have many consequences, some already apparent, some yet to be seen. Energy and food security will become priorities. We will still need gas and oil whilst we move to renewables and nuclear, which cannot just be turned on. We need a bridge to them. I think Putin will lose. He has made massive miscalculations about the west's resolve and the way Ukrainians think. The economic hardships within Russia will demand his attention more than prolonging a war he now knows he can never win completely. China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so. In BOLD: 1. Agree there, any continuation of war is of course a catastrophe however idealistic dreams of shaking of hands and a jolly down the battle cruiser is highly delusional. I'd suggest any resolution will be an act of damage limitations as opposed to a happy ending, which certainly isn't on the cards for Ukraine. 2. I can't see any blame that can proportionally put at anyone else's feet asides from Putin. Speculation regarding his views on NATO etc will only remain as such as I haven't seen any indication that he has deviated from his nonsensical, fabricated reasoning's for the war. If I am incorrect there, very sincerely happy to apologise for my ignorance and would welcome any enlightenment. 3. Yes agree, it may not completely mirror the first however this does seem to be very much the second instalment. Again would hold hands up happily to any gaps/shortcomings in my understanding or knowledge there. 4. I do also believe perhaps not that he will 'lose' but certainly what he had in mind is not going to become a reality. The longer this stretches on the more I see his position weakening but conversely also becoming more dangerous. Ironic that China may hold the key in this and it may well play into their own aspirations with regards to relationships with the west for them to play a significant role in drawing any semblance of a conclusion to this. Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!
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Nicholas91

The Democratic Republic of Kent 15 Mar 22 2.41pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

There are very few things we actually know about all of this, but as our understanding of Putin's thinking becomes clearer, there are some things we can be pretty confident about.

One of those being that there is nothing we could have done, that would have avoided this. If you believe Ukraine to be a sovereign state, which most of the world, except Putin, does, then you cannot interfere in it any more than he can. It might be in our interests to see a swift end and a settlement which disfigures Ukraine, but that's not ours to negotiate.

This is 100% Putin and any blame shifting suggests to me his clever propaganda via social media in the west is working. As it has in other areas in recent years. He is grinding his poison into the wounds which divide us.

We are already in Cold war 2. It's going to last the rest of my lifetime and beyond. It will have many consequences, some already apparent, some yet to be seen. Energy and food security will become priorities. We will still need gas and oil whilst we move to renewables and nuclear, which cannot just be turned on. We need a bridge to them.

China probably holds the keys and can broker a way out for him. Let's hope so.

In BOLD:

1. Agree there, any continuation of war is of course a catastrophe however idealistic dreams of shaking of hands and a jolly down the battle cruiser is highly delusional. I'd suggest any resolution will be an act of damage limitations as opposed to a happy ending, which certainly isn't on the cards for Ukraine.

2. I can't see any blame that can proportionally put at anyone else's feet asides from Putin. Speculation regarding his views on NATO etc will only remain as such as I haven't seen any indication that he has deviated from his nonsensical, fabricated reasoning's for the war. If I am incorrect there, very sincerely happy to apologise for my ignorance and would welcome any enlightenment.

3. Yes agree, it may not completely mirror the first however this does seem to be very much the second instalment. Again would hold hands up happily to any gaps/shortcomings in my understanding or knowledge there.

4. I do also believe perhaps not that he will 'lose' but certainly what he had in mind is not going to become a reality. The longer this stretches on the more I see his position weakening but conversely also becoming more dangerous. Ironic that China may hold the key in this and it may well play into their own aspirations with regards to relationships with the west for them to play a significant role in drawing any semblance of a conclusion to this.

Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!

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Nicholas91 The Democratic Republic of Kent 15 Mar 22 2.44pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available. You think Putin loses....cool. I think everybody loses, especially the poor. I hope a pathway back can be found either with or without Putin as I regard the odds of surviving cold war 2 without a nuclear attack as less likely than cold war 1.....as at least those past politicians seemed to take it more seriously. There are just too many flash points around the world for this level of distrust and twitchy fingers. I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace. Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm) It does, at the very least, pave the way for terrifying possibilities/circumstances for the rest of us. Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!
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Nicholas91

The Democratic Republic of Kent 15 Mar 22 2.44pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available.

You think Putin loses....cool.

I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace.

Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm)

It does, at the very least, pave the way for terrifying possibilities/circumstances for the rest of us.

Now Zaha's got a bit of green grass ahead of him here... and finds Ambrose... not a bad effort!!!!

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Grumbles 15 Mar 22 3.03pm
Originally posted by Nicholas91 It does, at the very least, pave the way for terrifying possibilities/circumstances for the rest of us. It is funny how the Zeitgeist changes in 20 years, if you ever read T Clancy's the Bear and the Dragon. Trash novel, but it is the thinking on geo-politics compared to now that interests me.
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Grumbles 15 Mar 22 3.03pm

Originally posted by Nicholas91

It does, at the very least, pave the way for terrifying possibilities/circumstances for the rest of us.

It is funny how the Zeitgeist changes in 20 years, if you ever read T Clancy's the Bear and the Dragon. Trash novel, but it is the thinking on geo-politics compared to now that interests me.

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 15 Mar 22 3.12pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available. You think Putin loses....cool. I think everybody loses, especially the poor. I hope a pathway back can be found either with or without Putin as I regard the odds of surviving cold war 2 without a nuclear attack as less likely than cold war 1.....as at least those past politicians seemed to take it more seriously. There are just too many flash points around the world for this level of distrust and twitchy fingers. I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace. Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm) For sure we all lose, at least in the short to mid-term. Ultimately, if a new era of reality emerges, we could win something. Ukraine could be seen as a watershed moment. I don't see a China/Russia "block" arising from this. I think China are very uncomfortable about Putin's behaviour and surprised at the west's reaction. The Chinese are much more measured and pragmatic than the Russian's under Putin. They need us as consumers. Russia doesn't consume nearly so much as we do. China is now the dominant partner in that relationship and may well, in time, expand its influence in Russia. It will certainly use its natural resources. This is the Chinese century, just as the 20th was the USA's, but that doesn't mean they want to wage wars. They want us to remain as customers, not see us obliterated. For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 15 Mar 22 3.12pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm not going to continually go over the same ground over how we got here and where the blame lies for what. You can think what you want and other opinions are available.

You think Putin loses....cool.

I view a China/Russia block as a disaster for the west both economically and for world peace.

Edited by Stirlingsays (15 Mar 2022 2.42pm)

For sure we all lose, at least in the short to mid-term. Ultimately, if a new era of reality emerges, we could win something. Ukraine could be seen as a watershed moment.

I don't see a China/Russia "block" arising from this. I think China are very uncomfortable about Putin's behaviour and surprised at the west's reaction. The Chinese are much more measured and pragmatic than the Russian's under Putin. They need us as consumers. Russia doesn't consume nearly so much as we do.

China is now the dominant partner in that relationship and may well, in time, expand its influence in Russia. It will certainly use its natural resources. This is the Chinese century, just as the 20th was the USA's, but that doesn't mean they want to wage wars. They want us to remain as customers, not see us obliterated.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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steeleye20 Croydon 15 Mar 22 3.45pm
A return to brinkmanship would have avoided the whole thing. The USA President should have told Putin any incursion into the Ukraine would not be tolerated and would be an act of war. The west is so weak no wonder he just walks all over it. We have no morals except property, assets and the debts to service them, so rather than get our hands dirty fighting we will 'sanction oligarchs', wait until we send in the accountants. You can hear the Ukrainians cheering at their barricades.
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steeleye20

Croydon 15 Mar 22 3.45pm

A return to brinkmanship would have avoided the whole thing.

The USA President should have told Putin any incursion into the Ukraine would not be tolerated and would be an act of war.

The west is so weak no wonder he just walks all over it.

We have no morals except property, assets and the debts to service them, so rather than get our hands dirty fighting we will 'sanction oligarchs', wait until we send in the accountants.

You can hear the Ukrainians cheering at their barricades.

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Spiderman Horsham 15 Mar 22 3.51pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 A return to brinkmanship would have avoided the whole thing. The USA President should have told Putin any incursion into the Ukraine would not be tolerated and would be an act of war. The west is so weak no wonder he just walks all over it. We have no morals except property, assets and the debts to service them, so rather than get our hands dirty fighting we will 'sanction oligarchs', wait until we send in the accountants. You can hear the Ukrainians cheering at their barricades. What would your Jezza have done? Mmmm
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Spiderman

Horsham 15 Mar 22 3.51pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

A return to brinkmanship would have avoided the whole thing.

The USA President should have told Putin any incursion into the Ukraine would not be tolerated and would be an act of war.

The west is so weak no wonder he just walks all over it.

We have no morals except property, assets and the debts to service them, so rather than get our hands dirty fighting we will 'sanction oligarchs', wait until we send in the accountants.

You can hear the Ukrainians cheering at their barricades.

What would your Jezza have done? Mmmm

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