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Raqqa captured

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 25 Oct 17 3.19pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm seeing no argument for the benefits of the Iranian deal here.

It's short term wishful thinking. From what I can see criticisms of that deal are justified.

Obama made the US look weak and scared. Putin knew it and just ignored him. Iran took his money and China and North Korea.....Well, so much for that pivot towards Asia.

No one on the map of nations respects weakness.....The real world isn't Google.

Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 1.58pm)

Trump is already making the US look weak though, he did nothing over North Korea, whilst talking up a crisis, and he'll do nothing over Iran. He's basically humiliated himself in regards to Russia and completely flipped his stance on China (from his election campaign).

The result of all that North Korea rhetoric, he just looked stupid. North Korea knows as long as it doesn't actually attack the South, US or Japan, the US can't do anything to them.

Similarly, Iran. There isn't a military solution that doesn't completely f**k up the stability of the Middle East. There is no proxy he can use to fight and back - as the US wisely did against IS.

All his done, is undermine the process that the rest of the world seems to think was making progress. If he takes on Iran, the US has to win, and quickly, and then occupy another hostile Middle East nation (another Iraq and Afghanistan).

Otherwise, whatever actions the US takes, will result in Iran accelerating its nuclear program, and breaking off any chance of a negotiated settlement.

 


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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 3.20pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

I don't think anyone was really looking at ISI. Attacks by the group with the Syrian civil war had slackened, as they'd focused their attention across the Iraqi border with Southern Syria, the same was true of Sunni Nationalists not involved with ISI as well - In both cases Jabhat al-Nusra benefited and would merge with ISI to become ISIS.

Obama definitely got it wrong, as did the US military - They'd seen the 'pacification of violence in Northern Iraq' as maybe being progress politically via the elections etc.


Parallels with Vietham.....I think by the time Obama came along the view of getting out was more important than what happened afterwards. Bush started it and Obama ended it.

Iraq being seen as Vietham had as a war that wasn't worth the cost.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Ray in Houston Flag Houston 25 Oct 17 3.24pm Send a Private Message to Ray in Houston Add Ray in Houston as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Sophistry.

[Link]

'For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq'.

'I was able to keep my promise and end the war in Iraq'.

And again, Bush has plenty to be blamed for.


The ultimate point being that the withdrawal happened in the way the Iraqis wanted it. Obama tried to negotiate keeping combat troops in Iraq right up until the end; the deal stumbling on legal protections for US service personnel that Iraq refused to give (you can't operate in a war zone if shooting someone can result in your arrest for murder).

So, yes, Obama campaigned on ending the war in Iraq and withdrawing troops - which was going to happen anyway - and also on ending the war in Afghanistan, which he did not do. It's impossible to know what Obama would have done without being handcuffed by the State of Forces Agreement but, considering he tried very hard to get out from under that agreement, it seems likely that getting out of Iraq was another campaign promise he was prepared to break.

Yes, taking credit for it was ugly. As I have said, there was a lot about Obama's presidency that I didn't like. Doing this was dumb politics and set Clinton up to be branded as the "creator if ISIS" by Trump. Honesty on all things at all times is the best policy; and one rarely practiced by politicians.

 


We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 3.36pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Trump is already making the US look weak though, he did nothing over North Korea, whilst talking up a crisis, and he'll do nothing over Iran. He's basically humiliated himself in regards to Russia and completely flipped his stance on China (from his election campaign).

Well, this is widening out to another point but ok.

Trump has already made more progress against NK than Obama ever did. He has China signing up to restrict trade with them coating trade in the billions.

There is no humiliation on Russia that I can see.

His relationship with China is still emerging. Obviously considerations like NK are part of tactics. It's not accurate to state either way yet.

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

The result of all that North Korea rhetoric, he just looked stupid. North Korea knows as long as it doesn't actually attack the South, US or Japan, the US can't do anything to them.

I wouldn't be so sure that Trump isn't going to drop a small nuke on Pyongyang, simultaneously carrying out massive attacks on their military on the border.

You are wrong to say that couldn't or wouldn't be done. It becomes a decision. It isn't one I'd make now but it's an option. I do actually see Trump as wanting a winnable war.

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Similarly, Iran. There isn't a military solution that doesn't completely f**k up the stability of the Middle East. There is no proxy he can use to fight and back - as the US wisely did against IS.

All his done, is undermine the process that the rest of the world seems to think was making progress. If he takes on Iran, the US has to win, and quickly, and then occupy another hostile Middle East nation (another Iraq and Afghanistan).

Otherwise, whatever actions the US takes, will result in Iran accelerating its nuclear program, and breaking off any chance of a negotiated settlement.

I don't know who has been proposing invading Iran or anywhere actually. These are economic devices in relation to Iran.

Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 3.39pm)

 


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 25 Oct 17 4.49pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I don't know who has been proposing invading Iran or anywhere actually. These are economic devices in relation to Iran.

Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 3.39pm)

Well the alternative to preventing Iran developing nuclear weapons would have to be military action, as without a deal that has value to them, they'll have no incentive not to develop nuclear weapons.

If the US just does its usual, few bombs and a missile or two, then Iran will adapt. Short of bringing down the entire regime, I can't see an alternative to the current deal that could be effective.

 


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 25 Oct 17 4.56pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I wouldn't be so sure that Trump isn't going to drop a small nuke on Pyongyang, simultaneously carrying out massive attacks on their military on the border.

You are wrong to say that couldn't or wouldn't be done. It becomes a decision. It isn't one I'd make now but it's an option. I do actually see Trump as wanting a winnable war.

Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 3.39pm)

I think he might try to order it, but there isn't really any feasible way US White House is going to let that slide, without the US being directly attacked first (and significantly I suspect).

Trump's a f**king idiot - but no one in the white house or republican party, are that stupid - Certainly, not so stupid as to 'fire first' at another country that's armed with nuclear weapons, even if the president ordered it.

The diplomatic fall out and consequences for a pre-emptive nuclear strike would be catastrophic, even for the US.

More likely it'd be a Amendment 23 (I think) and off to a secure hospital for the tango lad - possibly with 'chest pains', and Mike Pence sworn in.

 


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Ray in Houston Flag Houston 25 Oct 17 5.31pm Send a Private Message to Ray in Houston Add Ray in Houston as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

I think he might try to order it, but there isn't really any feasible way US White House is going to let that slide, without the US being directly attacked first (and significantly I suspect).

Trump's a f**king idiot - but no one in the white house or republican party, are that stupid - Certainly, not so stupid as to 'fire first' at another country that's armed with nuclear weapons, even if the president ordered it.

The diplomatic fall out and consequences for a pre-emptive nuclear strike would be catastrophic, even for the US.

More likely it'd be a Amendment 23 (I think) and off to a secure hospital for the tango lad - possibly with 'chest pains', and Mike Pence sworn in.


Trump has expressed dismay that the US has all these nukes but never uses them. He also wants to increase the size of the nuclear arsenal 10 fold; which is why Tillerson called him a "f***ing moron".

Trump is a petty and vindictive bully who operates on emotion, without facts and without consideration of the consequences of his actions. I am as certain now that Trump will launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on someone as I was certain that this would never happen with any previous president.

 


We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 5.43pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

I think he might try to order it, but there isn't really any feasible way US White House is going to let that slide, without the US being directly attacked first (and significantly I suspect).

Trump's a f**king idiot - but no one in the white house or republican party, are that stupid - Certainly, not so stupid as to 'fire first' at another country that's armed with nuclear weapons, even if the president ordered it.

The diplomatic fall out and consequences for a pre-emptive nuclear strike would be catastrophic, even for the US.

More likely it'd be a Amendment 23 (I think) and off to a secure hospital for the tango lad - possibly with 'chest pains', and Mike Pence sworn in.

We are just sitting in the audience watching the show. You are booing, while I'm watching with a bemused look on my face.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 5.46pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ray in Houston


Trump has expressed dismay that the US has all these nukes but never uses them. He also wants to increase the size of the nuclear arsenal 10 fold; which is why Tillerson called him a "f***ing moron".

Trump is a petty and vindictive bully who operates on emotion, without facts and without consideration of the consequences of his actions. I am as certain now that Trump will launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on someone as I was certain that this would never happen with any previous president.

Most people I talk to seem to regard what Truman did as the only option. Even though there was no requirement for an unconditional surrender.

Times change.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 5.51pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Well the alternative to preventing Iran developing nuclear weapons would have to be military action, as without a deal that has value to them, they'll have no incentive not to develop nuclear weapons.

If the US just does its usual, few bombs and a missile or two, then Iran will adapt. Short of bringing down the entire regime, I can't see an alternative to the current deal that could be effective.

That deal cements the regime in by improving the economy. It makes no difference to the nuclear question.

But regardless there is no need to attack Iran....it has enough enemies as it is. We are backing different horses.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Ray in Houston Flag Houston 25 Oct 17 7.59pm Send a Private Message to Ray in Houston Add Ray in Houston as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Most people I talk to seem to regard what Truman did as the only option. Even though there was no requirement for an unconditional surrender.

Times change.


There is a debate as to whether the second was really necessary - the inference being that one was for the Russians - but the logic for the first was pretty flawless.

Times do change, and we now have accords and agreements about using nuclear weapons which didn't exist in WW2 because, of course, the bombs weren't prevalent then.

One of the disturbing things about Trump's saber-rattling at North Korea is that he seems to conflate the population of the country with the dictator under whose boot the live (if you can call it living). He has threatened to wipe out the entire population because he doesn't like what Kim Jong-Un is doing. That's not how this works.

 


We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Oct 17 8.37pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ray in Houston


There is a debate as to whether the second was really necessary - the inference being that one was for the Russians - but the logic for the first was pretty flawless.

Times do change, and we now have accords and agreements about using nuclear weapons which didn't exist in WW2 because, of course, the bombs weren't prevalent then.

One of the disturbing things about Trump's saber-rattling at North Korea is that he seems to conflate the population of the country with the dictator under whose boot the live (if you can call it living). He has threatened to wipe out the entire population because he doesn't like what Kim Jong-Un is doing. That's not how this works.

What's the rational for the first bomb drop that killed over 200, 000 people and causes birth defects even today? There were other options.......I've often wrestled with this decision. Japan had no capacity to strike at the US anymore.

But North Korea do...and time will only see that capacity increase.

Strikes wouldn't wipe out the population of North Korea, only the capital and the military installations....especially those aimed at the South.

You focus upon Trump's immature wafflings and they are but North Korea are the ones aiming and shooting missiles into the sea of Japan and issuing threats.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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