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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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Stirlingsays Flag 13 Mar 22 11.32am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

We are between a rock and a hard place. Nato cannot get involved. Whilst we admire the resilience and fortitude of the Ukrainian people, the longer they resist, the worse, and more dangerous it will get for everyone. So it seems the best thing would be a swift end to the military resistance and a retreat into non-cooperation and guerilla war. Occupying Ukraine would present Putin with a whole new set of problems.

Then the sanctions can do their work, taking a toll over time.

The problem is that the Ukrainian's don't see it that way, and the Russian's appear incapable of anything other than brutal tactics of destruction. So it's likely to be a long-drawn-out process in which the whole of Ukraine gets laid to waste, with a humanitarian problem of epic proportions, energy and food shortages in Europe and Putin under increasing pressure in Russia. Can we trust a pressured Putin?

Whether diplomacy can find a way through this quagmire is an open question, but so far the signs are not promising.

Putin isn't stupid, he isn't going to agree to a militarized Ukraine in a peace deal. The idea of guerilla war only becomes an option if this war doesn't end and he takes all Ukraine with no peace deal. Russia isn't a democracy, he'd send his police in and it wouldn't be pretty. The only way to less death is to give him a realistic 'out'.

Sanctions aren't going to work and indeed have never worked in changing regimes. All you are doing is pushing Russia into China's hands.....which is going from the pan into the fire.

South America, the middle east and sub continent will trade with both sides....there is no winning this and the sooner people can look at things realistically the better.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Mar 2022 11.33am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 13 Mar 22 11.41am Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Putin isn't stupid, he isn't going to agree to a militarized Ukraine in a peace deal. The idea of guerilla war only becomes an option if this war doesn't end and he takes all Ukraine with no peace deal. Russia isn't a democracy, he'd send his police in and it wouldn't be pretty. The only way to less death is to give him a realistic 'out'.

Sanctions aren't going to work and indeed have never worked in changing regimes. All you are doing is pushing Russia into China's hands.....which is going from the pan into the fire.

South America, the middle east and sub continent will trade with both sides....there is no winning this and the sooner people can look at things realistically the better.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Mar 2022 11.33am)

I am in total agreement.
He cannot be seen to have failed and has to be presented with a deal which he can present as a victory.

 

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eaglesdare Flag 13 Mar 22 11.50am Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

Does anyone remember why the UK and US went to war in Iraq? Maybe Putin had similar concerns for invading Ukraine! #doublestandards by most!

If Putin really did want the whole of Ukraine he would have had the country within a week! He has given every chance chance to those in charge to end the war! I don't buy into the MSM that the war isint going to plan for Russia!

Edited by eaglesdare (13 Mar 2022 11.52am)

 

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matthau Flag South Croydon 13 Mar 22 12.00pm Send a Private Message to matthau Add matthau as a friend

Just in case you don’t have the patience to watch the full documentary

[Link]

 

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Badger11 Flag Beckenham 13 Mar 22 12.04pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

Does anyone remember why the UK and US went to war in Iraq? Maybe Putin had similar concerns for invading Ukraine! #doublestandards by most!

If Putin really did want the whole of Ukraine he would have had the country within a week! He has given every chance chance to those in charge to end the war! I don't buy into the MSM that the war isint going to plan for Russia!

Edited by eaglesdare (13 Mar 2022 11.52am)

Wow if this is success I hate to see failure

 


One more point

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 13 Mar 22 12.33pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Putin isn't stupid, he isn't going to agree to a militarized Ukraine in a peace deal. The idea of guerilla war only becomes an option if this war doesn't end and he takes all Ukraine with no peace deal. Russia isn't a democracy, he'd send his police in and it wouldn't be pretty. The only way to less death is to give him a realistic 'out'.

Sanctions aren't going to work and indeed have never worked in changing regimes. All you are doing is pushing Russia into China's hands.....which is going from the pan into the fire.

South America, the middle east and sub continent will trade with both sides....there is no winning this and the sooner people can look at things realistically the better.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Mar 2022 11.33am)

I agree with this. However, I don't think that precludes either long term non-cooperation or guerilla resistance, which I believe is an inevitability. Putin doesn't possess the resources to police the level of determination that exists in the Ukrainian people. It doesn't have a cadre of sympathisers in Ukraine ready to take over. There's no Oswald Mosely in Ukraine.

Sanctions will work. The economic ones are already biting, but the cultural ones will hurt their pride even harder. They are the bargaining chips we can use to gradually extract concessions.

China is not a friend of Russia. It needs the west much more than it needs Russia because that's where it sells things. Sure, it will buy it's oil and some food, but that means we will buy what they got from the Middle East.

For sure, there are no winners. It's all a question of damage limitation and learning lessons, but we are where we are.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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Stirlingsays Flag 13 Mar 22 12.43pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

I agree with this. However, I don't think that precludes either long term non-cooperation or guerilla resistance, which I believe is an inevitability. Putin doesn't possess the resources to police the level of determination that exists in the Ukrainian people. It doesn't have a cadre of sympathisers in Ukraine ready to take over. There's no Oswald Mosely in Ukraine.

Sanctions will work. The economic ones are already biting, but the cultural ones will hurt their pride even harder. They are the bargaining chips we can use to gradually extract concessions.

China is not a friend of Russia. It needs the west much more than it needs Russia because that's where it sells things. Sure, it will buy it's oil and some food, but that means we will buy what they got from the Middle East.

For sure, there are no winners. It's all a question of damage limitation and learning lessons, but we are where we are.

There is a hard right in east Ukraine but they are a reasonable size in all eastern European countries....all that's a distraction on both sides....nothing in this war is about them.

Oswald Mosley (never fought against his own countrymen) so that's a slur. Russia don't need a 'hard right' as they have more than enough pro Russians in East Ukraine.

Personally, I don't see a successful resistance in East Ukraine but I guess we will see.....I see one if he tries to take all Ukraine...I don't think that would be sensible for Russia at all, as despite what Putin wants we won't stop supplying resistance.

I'd agree with your first sentence and last two two sentences, other than that I think you're being more hopeful than realistic.

Where I'm hopeful is that cold war 2 can be pulled back from....I think our politicians need to think longer term in reducing the suffering to everyone that cold war means.

Edited by Stirlingsays (13 Mar 2022 12.52pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 13 Mar 22 12.49pm Send a Private Message to Wisbech Eagle Add Wisbech Eagle as a friend

I have watched another Oxford Union presentation, which I found interesting, and revealing, from another well known former MI6 insider.

As with the one previously linked to, from Sir John Sawyer, this gives a detained, unemotional analysis of the background and thinking that lies behind recent events.

This is from Christopher Steele, who I also gave a link to before. That though was only a brief interview. This is very much longer, detailed and wide-ranging.

Steele, you will recall, was responsible for the "trump dossier", which he touches on in this presentation and makes a link to what he reported in that and what is happening in Ukraine.

He obviously knows what he is talking about. No politics here. Just facts. I recommend it:-

[Link]

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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kevlee Flag born Wandsworth emigrated to Lanc... 13 Mar 22 1.07pm Send a Private Message to kevlee Add kevlee as a friend

Originally posted by Willo

It really is all dependant on the content of the diplomatic talks and I for one never believed that diplomacy would bring about an immediate cessation of hostilities.

The west simply have to prevent a drawn-out conflict with human suffering and a destroyed Ukraine, and uncomfortable compromises will have to be made to prevent further bloodshed.[/quote]

But Willo, as you say, Putin will laugh at anything that is neagtive to him, or makes him look like what he did was wrong and so when you say "uncomfotable compromises" you really mean only from Ukraine and their many supporters around the globe. A one-way give in isnt a compromise. Its giving in.
From what I have read Putin isnt in a mood to compromise about anything. So, faced with that, what would you suggest? Persuade the Ukranian prople to capitulate and for all sanctions to cease?

 


Following Palace since 25 Feb 1978

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kevlee Flag born Wandsworth emigrated to Lanc... 13 Mar 22 1.08pm Send a Private Message to kevlee Add kevlee as a friend

Originally posted by kevlee

Originally posted by Willo

It really is all dependant on the content of the diplomatic talks and I for one never believed that diplomacy would bring about an immediate cessation of hostilities.

The west simply have to prevent a drawn-out conflict with human suffering and a destroyed Ukraine, and uncomfortable compromises will have to be made to prevent further bloodshed.[/quote]


But Willo, as you say, Putin will laugh at anything that is neagtive to him, or makes him look like what he did was wrong and so when you say "uncomfotable compromises" you really mean only from Ukraine and their many supporters around the globe. A one-way give in isnt a compromise. Its giving in.
From what I have read Putin isnt in a mood to compromise about anything. So, faced with that, what would you suggest? Persuade the Ukranian prople to capitulate and for all sanctions to cease?

Edited by kevlee (13 Mar 2022 1.08pm)

 


Following Palace since 25 Feb 1978

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Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 13 Mar 22 1.16pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by kevlee

Originally posted by Willo

It really is all dependant on the content of the diplomatic talks and I for one never believed that diplomacy would bring about an immediate cessation of hostilities.

The west simply have to prevent a drawn-out conflict with human suffering and a destroyed Ukraine, and uncomfortable compromises will have to be made to prevent further bloodshed.[/quote]

But Willo, as you say, Putin will laugh at anything that is neagtive to him, or makes him look like what he did was wrong and so when you say "uncomfotable compromises" you really mean only from Ukraine and their many supporters around the globe. A one-way give in isnt a compromise. Its giving in.
From what I have read Putin isnt in a mood to compromise about anything. So, faced with that, what would you suggest? Persuade the Ukranian prople to capitulate and for all sanctions to cease?

I am not calling for Ukraine to capitulate or sanctions to be ceased.

Perhaps a deal could be reached concerning NATO membership and/or regions in the Donbask which houses Russian speakers and perhaps with allegiance to Russia rather than Ukraine.

Unless a diplomatic solution is found, the barbarity and bloodshed within Ukraine will continue and maybe an extension of hostilities beyond this conflict.

 

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Forest Hillbilly Flag in a hidey-hole 13 Mar 22 1.23pm Send a Private Message to Forest Hillbilly Add Forest Hillbilly as a friend

Economists and other luminaries discussing sanctions on the radio yesterday.
Sanctions don't work. Sanctions only impact the poor. There were examples, such as Cuba and Iraq and others.

And lorries of aid, often get intercepted by military/militias, and much of it feeds/assists the fighters. Comparatively little gets to the needy, in spite of what we'd like to think.

Just a realistic perspective, in spite of best intentions.

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (13 Mar 2022 1.24pm)

 


I disengage, I turn the page.

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