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jamiemartin721 Reading 25 Oct 17 1.08pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
That's a different question. It's a question on Obama's decisions in Iraq. Not about Bush's decisions. IS did not grow rapidly until the US troops were gone....they took advantage of a lack of Iraqi unity. They'd been operating in Iraq since 2003, and were very active through out the decade or so. Around 2006/7 they formed ISI (Islamic State of Iraq) which was active in the formation and growth of ISIS in 2012 (ish) during the civil war, with ISI switching their focus from Iraq to the Syrian civil war, and backing Jabhat al-Nusra which would in 2013 merge with ISI to form ISIL aka ISIS. People seem to forget that the initial ISIS was an offshoot formed by the ISI. They were never not active in Iraq.
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jamiemartin721 Reading 25 Oct 17 1.15pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Delayed, nothing else...accept making them wealthier. Delayed or postponed. To all accounts of the monitoring agency, Iran is in compliance with the treaty. Realistically, you can only ever delay or postpone countries developing the capability for nuclear weapons - based on their need. Increasing the military threat Iran is under, surely only accelerates that need (Despite the traditional sabre rattling, having nuclear capability generally paves the way to being immune to 'regime changes'). The US can't start a war with Iran, without creating massive problems throughout Iraq (very close relationship with Iran).
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Stirlingsays 25 Oct 17 1.57pm | |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Delayed or postponed. To all accounts of the monitoring agency, Iran is in compliance with the treaty. Realistically, you can only ever delay or postpone countries developing the capability for nuclear weapons - based on their need. Increasing the military threat Iran is under, surely only accelerates that need (Despite the traditional sabre rattling, having nuclear capability generally paves the way to being immune to 'regime changes'). The US can't start a war with Iran, without creating massive problems throughout Iraq (very close relationship with Iran). I'm seeing no argument for the benefits of the Iranian deal here. It's short term wishful thinking. From what I can see criticisms of that deal are justified. Obama made the US look weak and scared. Putin knew it and just ignored him. Iran took his money and China and North Korea.....Well, so much for that pivot towards Asia. No one on the map of nations respects weakness.....The real world isn't Google. Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 1.58pm)
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Stirlingsays 25 Oct 17 2.04pm | |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
They'd been operating in Iraq since 2003, and were very active through out the decade or so. Around 2006/7 they formed ISI (Islamic State of Iraq) which was active in the formation and growth of ISIS in 2012 (ish) during the civil war, with ISI switching their focus from Iraq to the Syrian civil war, and backing Jabhat al-Nusra which would in 2013 merge with ISI to form ISIL aka ISIS. People seem to forget that the initial ISIS was an offshoot formed by the ISI. They were never not active in Iraq. I didn't say they weren't active. I specifically stated they didn't grow rapidly until the departure of US troops. What cities did IS hold in Iraq before the US departure? The US withdrawed in 2011. The first city captured was in 2014.
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Ray in Houston Houston 25 Oct 17 2.31pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
I don't remember now.....But he misread the situation on the ground and pulled out despite expressed concerns. With hindsight it should have been done slowly and carefully....well, that's my layman's view anyway. Obama was a micro manager who was useless on foreign policy. The US troop withdrawal from Iraq was negotiated and signed and cast in stone during the Bush administration in 2008. Remember when he had a shoe thrown at him? That was the joint press conference with the Iraqi Prime Minister to announce the Status of Forces Agreement that set the timetable for the complete withdrawal of US combat forces from all cities by mid-2009 and from the whole country by the end of 2011. Yes, the exit happened during Obama's administration, but he was executing a withdrawal that was handed to him by his predecessor and which was being enforced by the Iraqi government. If you want to blame the rise of ISIS on the US' withdrawal from Iraq - not an illogical position to take at all - then make sure you're blaming the right people for the decision. Hint: Obama isn't one of them.
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Ray in Houston Houston 25 Oct 17 2.39pm | |
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Originally posted by Penge Eagle
OK, I'm trying to think of something Obama did well on the foreign stage... Agreeing with the UN's condemnation of Israel settlements in the West Bank? Though not sure the effect of that as he was departing office.
Internationally, he was part of the Iran nuclear deal (which Trump is trying to undo), the Paris Climate Accords (which Trump is trying to undo) and he relaxed US sanctions on Cuba (which Trump is trying to undo). Not a lot, to be fair, but he did revitalize the US' image around the world (which Trump is succeeding in undoing).
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Stirlingsays 25 Oct 17 2.40pm | |
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Originally posted by Ray in Houston
The US troop withdrawal from Iraq was negotiated and signed and cast in stone during the Bush administration in 2008. Remember when he had a shoe thrown at him? That was the joint press conference with the Iraqi Prime Minister to announce the Status of Forces Agreement that set the timetable for the complete withdrawal of US combat forces from all cities by mid-2009 and from the whole country by the end of 2011. Yes, the exit happened during Obama's administration, but he was executing a withdrawal that was handed to him by his predecessor and which was being enforced by the Iraqi government. If you want to blame the rise of ISIS on the US' withdrawal from Iraq - not an illogical position to take at all - then make sure you're blaming the right people for the decision. Hint: Obama isn't one of them. Obama is one of them. He was talking about pulling out of Iraq all the way through his election campaign. The lack of a response presence there enabled IS to get out of hand. Obama is directly responsible for enabling that chance. I do blame Bush for a lot of things that went wrong in Iraq actually.
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Ray in Houston Houston 25 Oct 17 2.50pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Obama is one of them. He was talking about pulling out of Iraq all the way through his election campaign. The lack of a response presence there enabled IS to get out of hand. Obama is directly responsible for enabling that chance. I do blame Bush for a lot of things that went wrong in Iraq actually.
I know it's convenient for you to hang this around Obama's neck, but Bush took us into Iraq and Bush took us out - both decisions being disastrous for the region and the world. Edited by Ray in Houston (25 Oct 2017 2.50pm)
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Stirlingsays 25 Oct 17 2.55pm | |
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Originally posted by Ray in Houston
I know it's convenient for you to hang this around Obama's neck, but Bush took us into Iraq and Bush took us out - both decisions being disastrous for the region and the world. Edited by Ray in Houston (25 Oct 2017 2.50pm) Sophistry. 'For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq'. 'I was able to keep my promise and end the war in Iraq'. And again, Bush has plenty to be blamed for. Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Oct 2017 2.56pm)
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jamiemartin721 Reading 25 Oct 17 3.05pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
I didn't say they weren't active. I specifically stated they didn't grow rapidly until the departure of US troops. What cities did IS hold in Iraq before the US departure? The US withdrawed in 2011. The first city captured was in 2014.
So three years later, at the time the US had only been in Iraq for 11 years. I don't think their growth was really dependent on the withdraw of US troops per se. The swelling of IS was more about Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria merging with ISI to form ISIL /ISIS. However, I would agree that had the US military not been scaled back, the 2014 incursion may not have occurred, or if it had, the US military would likely have achieved far greater success than the Iraqi forces that effectively were routed - and they would likely have only 'lost the first city' (as US forces were largely confined to bases at that point). Long before ISIS could have pushed forwards from that first victory, the US would have deployed its forces. It was the wrong call, with hindsight, but with the Insurgents and ISI having switched their focus to Syria and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, I think the US effectively misread that as achieving a false level of security. But ISIS didn't really grow as a result of the US withdrawal, it was already a fairly substantial force in Syria and Northern Iraq.
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jamiemartin721 Reading 25 Oct 17 3.09pm | |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Obama is one of them. He was talking about pulling out of Iraq all the way through his election campaign. The lack of a response presence there enabled IS to get out of hand. Obama is directly responsible for enabling that chance. I do blame Bush for a lot of things that went wrong in Iraq actually. I don't think anyone was really looking at ISI. Attacks by the group with the Syrian civil war had slackened, as they'd focused their attention across the Iraqi border with Southern Syria, the same was true of Sunni Nationalists not involved with ISI as well - In both cases Jabhat al-Nusra benefited and would merge with ISI to become ISIS. Obama definitely got it wrong, as did the US military - They'd seen the 'pacification of violence in Northern Iraq' as maybe being progress politically via the elections etc.
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Stirlingsays 25 Oct 17 3.14pm | |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
So three years later, at the time the US had only been in Iraq for 11 years. I don't think their growth was really dependent on the withdraw of US troops per se. The swelling of IS was more about Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria merging with ISI to form ISIL /ISIS. However, I would agree that had the US military not been scaled back, the 2014 incursion may not have occurred, or if it had, the US military would likely have achieved far greater success than the Iraqi forces that effectively were routed - and they would likely have only 'lost the first city' (as US forces were largely confined to bases at that point). Long before ISIS could have pushed forwards from that first victory, the US would have deployed its forces. It was the wrong call, with hindsight, but with the Insurgents and ISI having switched their focus to Syria and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, I think the US effectively misread that as achieving a false level of security. But ISIS didn't really grow as a result of the US withdrawal, it was already a fairly substantial force in Syria and Northern Iraq. IS was always going to take advantage of the situation that was created in Syria. Watching the Vietham series is fascinating for seeing certain parallels.
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