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2024 General Election
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  Hrolf The Ganger  09 Jul 24 7.18pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
To win modern elections in this country you need to be centre right or centre left. Muddled policies, a recent history of failure, poor campaigning with a lack of focus on swing voters and multiple unelected leaders in a short space of time, plus the incumbent problem did for the Tories. Just like those on the left, those on the right are guilty of confirmation bias when it comes to how large a portion of the electorate they actually have, or will ever have.' Also re. percentages, and overstating Reform performance, for ref. 'The Conservatives lost votes to everyone. 25% of the 2019 vote to Reform, 23% to the left. The latter count double. Losing votes to the left ensured election defeat. Bleeding so heavily to reform turned that defeat into a cataclysm.' Viewed from 2015, we've mostly seen the same ~15% of voters grow, collapse into the Tory vote, then re-spawn. It's not some new massive surge in right-populist voting. Edited by SW19 CPFC (09 Jul 2024 7.06pm) Why do people keep using this dog whistle term? Could it be because they can't get away with shouting racist any more? Silly lefties.
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 09 Jul 24 7.36pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
Why do people keep using this dog whistle term? Could it be because they can't get away with shouting racist any more? Silly lefties. Such a sensitive soul. The term is a bit at odds with the reality. I'd agree on that at least.
Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons. |
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 09 Jul 24 7.38pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
Spin. What you were actually saying is that you think the Tories should pretend to care about immigration and all the mess that has come with it. They did that last time and look how well it went. No one trusts Labour or the Tories on immigration, be it illegal or otherwise. Reform will not go away. The electorate have heard all the lies and broken promises before. Pretty sure quite a few people said that about UKIP.
Did you know? 98.0000001% of people are morons. |
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cryrst  The garden of England 09 Jul 24 7.57pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
If they want to win back seats they need to focus on making their policies and manifestos appealing to the wider voting demographic, not less (by moving further right) and grabbing votes off Labour and Lib Dems, not Reform who they were second to in two constituencies. Being more right of centre than right isn't what got them the boot. That will be the opinion of a left wing voter. You aren’t (and this isn’t in no way trying to be clever or patronising) a right wing thinker or voter so you would be thinking that.
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 09 Jul 24 8.15pm |
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Originally posted by cryrst
That will be the opinion of a left wing voter. You aren’t (and this isn’t in no way trying to be clever or patronising) a right wing thinker or voter so you would be thinking that. I dunno... To win elections these days you've got to be closer to the centre ground, as well as having a cohesive strategy. Also helps if you haven't been the incumbent for a decade. Demonstrably true. Also factually true as the majority of the electorate are neither left or right.
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| Hrolf The Ganger 09 Jul 24 8.54pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
Pretty sure quite a few people said that about UKIP. UKIP was all about Brexit. That is done...For now. Reform is primarily about immigration. That is on going.
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| Hrolf The Ganger 09 Jul 24 8.55pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
Such a sensitive soul. The term is a bit at odds with the reality. I'd agree on that at least. Sensitive? No, just bored with the endless stream of bollocks you get from the same old people.
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glazedallover  Allier 09 Jul 24 9.21pm |
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Indeed.
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| cryrst The garden of England 09 Jul 24 10.28pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
I dunno... To win elections these days you've got to be closer to the centre ground, as well as having a cohesive strategy. Also helps if you haven't been the incumbent for a decade. Demonstrably true. Also factually true as the majority of the electorate are neither left or right. But as you proved. We differ in our opinions the same as all voters. If the Tory party was too far to the right and reform were even farther why was their joint vote count so high?
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| The groover Danbury 09 Jul 24 10.33pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
To win modern elections in this country you need to be centre right or centre left. Muddled policies, a recent history of failure, poor campaigning with a lack of focus on swing voters and multiple unelected leaders in a short space of time, plus the incumbent problem did for the Tories. Just like those on the left, those on the right are guilty of confirmation bias when it comes to how large a portion of the electorate they actually have, or will ever have.' Also re. percentages, and overstating Reform performance, for ref. 'The Conservatives lost votes to everyone. 25% of the 2019 vote to Reform, 23% to the left. The latter count double. Losing votes to the left ensured election defeat. Bleeding so heavily to reform turned that defeat into a cataclysm.' Viewed from 2015, we've mostly seen the same ~15% of voters grow, collapse into the Tory vote, then re-spawn. It's not some new massive surge in right-populist voting. Edited by SW19 CPFC (09 Jul 2024 7.06pm) This is simply not true. The labour vote went down by 565,000 compared to 2019 so how could there have been a 23% swing from the tories to labour? This evaluation is based on percentages of vote for 2024 compared with 2019 without taking into account the turn out. Turnout was down 7.6% and there were an extra 1 million voters registered!!!! So the labour performance looks even poorer for a so called landslide. Reform achieved 4.1M votes, with 6 weeks of campaigning. The tories 6.8M. That cannot be over stated no matter what you say. And add those together and they beat labour! The tory vote was down by 7.14M!!!!! And before you do the math on those numbers and say Reform didn't take all of the tory vote turnout was down by 3.6M i.e. A lot of tory voters sat on their hands. The winner of this election was none of the above.
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| Stirlingsays 09 Jul 24 10.41pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
I dunno... To win elections these days you've got to be closer to the centre ground, as well as having a cohesive strategy. Also helps if you haven't been the incumbent for a decade. Demonstrably true. Also factually true as the majority of the electorate are neither left or right. The Tories literally ran as liberals and lost. Reform are a Thatcher lite party and Thatcher won three terms....Indeed Johnson won an eighty seat majority with the red wall thinking he was going to protect them from immigration. I predict you're wrong. Unless the Tories vote in someone like Braverman and move to the right they aren't going to compete at elections.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| EverybodyDannsNow SE19 10 Jul 24 8.03am |
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Originally posted by The groover
This is simply not true. The labour vote went down by 565,000 compared to 2019 so how could there have been a 23% swing from the tories to labour? This evaluation is based on percentages of vote for 2024 compared with 2019 without taking into account the turn out. Turnout was down 7.6% and there were an extra 1 million voters registered!!!! So the labour performance looks even poorer for a so called landslide. Reform achieved 4.1M votes, with 6 weeks of campaigning. The tories 6.8M. That cannot be over stated no matter what you say. And add those together and they beat labour! The tory vote was down by 7.14M!!!!! And before you do the math on those numbers and say Reform didn't take all of the tory vote turnout was down by 3.6M i.e. A lot of tory voters sat on their hands. The winner of this election was none of the above. But they don’t beat a coalition of left wing parties, which is surely the appropriate comparison. The left vote is split in every single election - it happens to the right once and you get people trying to invent all sort of conclusions about what I means. The winner of the election is very clearly the party with a huge majority, with Reform and Greens performing very well.
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