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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 1.13pm
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman Interesting take is that Putin is restoring the spirit of what Russia was. Deaths don’t matter. National identity and stature do. You're probably right in that's about all he can hope for. He's imploded his economy, Russian military might has been revealed to be an inept [Link] broken down joke (though by numbers alone they may still get the job done), their ability to project soft power or diplomatic clout left in tatters (the bombing of a maternity hospital called a 'pathetic outcry'), and their global image is now "crazy nuclear state." Last heard they were thinking of nationalising assets of companies that leave Russia. Good luck getting anyone to invest going forward. All authoritarian countries like Russia do well is control their own people, and so they're going back to their roots. Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 1.53pm)
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 1.13pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Interesting take is that Putin is restoring the spirit of what Russia was. Deaths don’t matter. National identity and stature do.

You're probably right in that's about all he can hope for. He's imploded his economy, Russian military might has been revealed to be an inept [Link] broken down joke (though by numbers alone they may still get the job done), their ability to project soft power or diplomatic clout left in tatters (the bombing of a maternity hospital called a 'pathetic outcry'), and their global image is now "crazy nuclear state."

Last heard they were thinking of nationalising assets of companies that leave Russia. Good luck getting anyone to invest going forward. All authoritarian countries like Russia do well is control their own people, and so they're going back to their roots.

Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 1.53pm)

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 1.27pm
While there are plenty of valid ideas and discussions about what contributed to getting us here, there was always a sense of eventual inevitability to Russia's actions. We might elect not to see the world as some kind of battered wife and solely blame ourselves for barbaric actions that would manifest whatever we did. The description from the somewhat prophetic Foundation of Geopolitics gives an insight into how the likes of Putin view Ukraine: "Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire (restricted movement), which would be inadmissible" Ukraine has seen itself an a different, more autonomous light for much, much longer than any of us have been around. They have often looked to autonomy and independence from the larger Russian entity, much to the angry of various Russian leaders. Edging towards democratic freedoms and links to the west is clearly unacceptable to Putin, so he's deciding to put an end to that. However, I very much doubt his ability to rule a people he has brutalised before the world. They will never forget. Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 1.55pm)
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 1.27pm

While there are plenty of valid ideas and discussions about what contributed to getting us here, there was always a sense of eventual inevitability to Russia's actions. We might elect not to see the world as some kind of battered wife and solely blame ourselves for barbaric actions that would manifest whatever we did.

The description from the somewhat prophetic Foundation of Geopolitics gives an insight into how the likes of Putin view Ukraine:

"Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire (restricted movement), which would be inadmissible"

Ukraine has seen itself an a different, more autonomous light for much, much longer than any of us have been around. They have often looked to autonomy and independence from the larger Russian entity, much to the angry of various Russian leaders. Edging towards democratic freedoms and links to the west is clearly unacceptable to Putin, so he's deciding to put an end to that. However, I very much doubt his ability to rule a people he has brutalised before the world. They will never forget.

Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 1.55pm)

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Stirlingsays 10 Mar 22 1.56pm
Morality tales are one thing and I have sympathy for it up to a point, just not to the point where virtue signalling takes me to war. Personally I don't regard myself as a full believer in propaganda arms of different medias however I have little doubt that horrible things are being deliberately done. Far more scary is the bigger picture here. Aside from the outrageous risks being taken on nuclear and wider war and aside from the seemingly minimal efforts being put into seeking peace.....something that I'm beginning to think is deliberate...I am worried about the consequences of this new cold war. We are pushing the bread and oil basket of Russia into China's arms here. We are creating a significant opposing block in the world....Aside from China.....India, pakistan, the middle east, South America, Africa won't turn their backs to Russia.....America can't even get Mexico to side with them....and it's a joke to see them with their begging bowls in Venezuela and Iran (which will likely lead nowhere)....The Americans, were on energy independence with Trump and sit on two massive oil fields....watching this is frankly embarrassing. There are significant flash points in the world other than the Ukraine.....watching how this has been handled....which I regard as incompetence of the highest order I seriously worry for my children's future in a physical sense....which is much more immediate than the cultural and meritocratic decay surrounding them in the society as they grow. I don't shrug off the fact that the path here was completely avoidable, in fact the lack of accountability and unwillingness to recognise why we are here just makes me more and more cynical. 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

10 Mar 22 1.56pm

Morality tales are one thing and I have sympathy for it up to a point, just not to the point where virtue signalling takes me to war. Personally I don't regard myself as a full believer in propaganda arms of different medias however I have little doubt that horrible things are being deliberately done.

Far more scary is the bigger picture here. Aside from the outrageous risks being taken on nuclear and wider war and aside from the seemingly minimal efforts being put into seeking peace.....something that I'm beginning to think is deliberate...I am worried about the consequences of this new cold war.

We are pushing the bread and oil basket of Russia into China's arms here. We are creating a significant opposing block in the world....Aside from China.....India, pakistan, the middle east, South America, Africa won't turn their backs to Russia.....America can't even get Mexico to side with them....and it's a joke to see them with their begging bowls in Venezuela and Iran (which will likely lead nowhere)....The Americans, were on energy independence with Trump and sit on two massive oil fields....watching this is frankly embarrassing.

There are significant flash points in the world other than the Ukraine.....watching how this has been handled....which I regard as incompetence of the highest order I seriously worry for my children's future in a physical sense....which is much more immediate than the cultural and meritocratic decay surrounding them in the society as they grow.

I don't shrug off the fact that the path here was completely avoidable, in fact the lack of accountability and unwillingness to recognise why we are here just makes me more and more cynical.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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The groover Danbury 10 Mar 22 2.50pm
Originally posted by BlueJay It's troubling that the more Russia struggle in Ukraine the more likely they are to escalate to save face. That's why peace talks certainly have their place, but the impact of this invasion on both Ukraine and Russia has been significant, and so I'm struggling to think of what agreement could be reached. I said what the russians are asking for now at the start of all this. Recognise crimea and the breakaway states as russian satellites. And for Ukraine to declare neutrality. They have asked for that now.
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The groover

Danbury 10 Mar 22 2.50pm

Originally posted by BlueJay

It's troubling that the more Russia struggle in Ukraine the more likely they are to escalate to save face. That's why peace talks certainly have their place, but the impact of this invasion on both Ukraine and Russia has been significant, and so I'm struggling to think of what agreement could be reached.

I said what the russians are asking for now at the start of all this. Recognise crimea and the breakaway states as russian satellites. And for Ukraine to declare neutrality.

They have asked for that now.

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 3.02pm
Originally posted by The groover I said what the russians are asking for now at the start of all this. Recognise crimea and the breakaway states as russian satellites. And for Ukraine to declare neutrality. They have asked for that now. You can tell what someone wants from their actions, not their words. Ukraine to be bombed into submission until its absorbed into Russia is what they want. It's not even a secret and has been part of the plan for longer than we've even been alive. You don't behave as Russia by invading the country,has and make the treats they have, if you have reasonable 'wants'. It's clear that Ukraine was never going to be allowed into NATO anyway, so the idea that they were an aggressive neighbour is far fetched. To Russia, a 'neutral' Ukraine means one unable to defend itself.. and why I wonder would they want that. I'm all for trying to thrash out a peace agreement that is reasonable if it de-escalates things, but that's very difficult to do while women and children are getting blown up. You can't reason with that ongoing behaviour or 'ceasefires' that are anything but. If there is a genuine desire for peace, will know about it. At present there is not.
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 3.02pm

Originally posted by The groover

I said what the russians are asking for now at the start of all this. Recognise crimea and the breakaway states as russian satellites. And for Ukraine to declare neutrality.

They have asked for that now.

You can tell what someone wants from their actions, not their words. Ukraine to be bombed into submission until its absorbed into Russia is what they want. It's not even a secret and has been part of the plan for longer than we've even been alive. You don't behave as Russia by invading the country,has and make the treats they have, if you have reasonable 'wants'.

It's clear that Ukraine was never going to be allowed into NATO anyway, so the idea that they were an aggressive neighbour is far fetched. To Russia, a 'neutral' Ukraine means one unable to defend itself.. and why I wonder would they want that. I'm all for trying to thrash out a peace agreement that is reasonable if it de-escalates things, but that's very difficult to do while women and children are getting blown up. You can't reason with that ongoing behaviour or 'ceasefires' that are anything but. If there is a genuine desire for peace, will know about it. At present there is not.

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 3.07pm
I'm not sure that taking issue with maternity wards being bombed can be easily bundled into 'virtue signalling'. It's a phrase that has become so overused that it eliminates actual virtue, which explains a lot about the allegiances of some where suddenly all actions and ideas are made equal on some level. It is what it is, and an inability to do an awful lot about any of this is true no our view. If there is a desire to bring Russia in rather than leave them out in the cold (no pun), their own behaviour plays a part in that. Besides when the pipeline sanctions were lifted (for a time) that was painted as a bad idea, but you don't turn Russia away from China by turning off the connections between them (re the Germany - Russia pipeline). Of course that is now exactly what's happened on a much wider scale due to 'their actions', but we will have to see it that falls under 'long term' or is a tool in peace talks. Realistically sanctions and arming Ukraine is the minimum that was ever going to take place and is measured in comparison to the Russian 'anything goes'. It's a weird self flagellation that predominately finds fault with our behaviour and paints factual atrocities of an invading country on as 'propaganda'. At the end of the day anything said here, from me or anyone else in Armchair Commander level stuff anyway. We don't truly have a scooby about what could or couldn't have been avoided, for how long as there are so many complexities and variations at play. All we can do is hope that a de-escalation eventually takes place, rather than its opposite. No sanctions and not arming Ukraine was never an option, so what happens next is largely down to Russia rather than anything we do. Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 3.15pm)
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 3.07pm

I'm not sure that taking issue with maternity wards being bombed can be easily bundled into 'virtue signalling'. It's a phrase that has become so overused that it eliminates actual virtue, which explains a lot about the allegiances of some where suddenly all actions and ideas are made equal on some level. It is what it is, and an inability to do an awful lot about any of this is true no our view.

If there is a desire to bring Russia in rather than leave them out in the cold (no pun), their own behaviour plays a part in that. Besides when the pipeline sanctions were lifted (for a time) that was painted as a bad idea, but you don't turn Russia away from China by turning off the connections between them (re the Germany - Russia pipeline). Of course that is now exactly what's happened on a much wider scale due to 'their actions', but we will have to see it that falls under 'long term' or is a tool in peace talks. Realistically sanctions and arming Ukraine is the minimum that was ever going to take place and is measured in comparison to the Russian 'anything goes'. It's a weird self flagellation that predominately finds fault with our behaviour and paints factual atrocities of an invading country on as 'propaganda'.

At the end of the day anything said here, from me or anyone else in Armchair Commander level stuff anyway. We don't truly have a scooby about what could or couldn't have been avoided, for how long as there are so many complexities and variations at play. All we can do is hope that a de-escalation eventually takes place, rather than its opposite. No sanctions and not arming Ukraine was never an option, so what happens next is largely down to Russia rather than anything we do.

Edited by BlueJay (10 Mar 2022 3.15pm)

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 3.25pm
To my mind Trump had the right idea with Energy Independence. As in getting there, and then transitioning to cleaner energy options down the line. Of course now we see what happens when a country has other over a barrel (no pun again). But even countries gradually stripping away the need for foreign oil, create problems in said countries that had knock on effects and can create conflict. Conflict and indeed wars are not something we can always wish away if we'd done A or B, and we cannot always blame ourselves for the actions of others. Russia for a long time hasn't been a rational actor. Blowing up passenger planes, poisoning our citizens, killing political opponents by the dozen. Putin has his world view and with age or illness wishes to enact it.
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 3.25pm

To my mind Trump had the right idea with Energy Independence. As in getting there, and then transitioning to cleaner energy options down the line. Of course now we see what happens when a country has other over a barrel (no pun again).

But even countries gradually stripping away the need for foreign oil, create problems in said countries that had knock on effects and can create conflict. Conflict and indeed wars are not something we can always wish away if we'd done A or B, and we cannot always blame ourselves for the actions of others. Russia for a long time hasn't been a rational actor. Blowing up passenger planes, poisoning our citizens, killing political opponents by the dozen. Putin has his world view and with age or illness wishes to enact it.

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 Mar 22 3.47pm
Originally posted by BlueJay To my mind Trump had the right idea with Energy Independence. As in getting there, and then transitioning to cleaner energy options down the line. Of course now we see what happens when a country has other over a barrel (no pun again). But even countries gradually stripping away the need for foreign oil, create problems in said countries that had knock on effects and can create conflict. Conflict and indeed wars are not something we can always wish away if we'd done A or B, and we cannot always blame ourselves for the actions of others. Russia for a long time hasn't been a rational actor. Blowing up passenger planes, poisoning our citizens, killing political opponents by the dozen. Putin has his world view and with age or illness wishes to enact it. I have said this lots of time on this board we rely on our energy from some of the most dodgy regimes around the world. Energy and Food independence should be at the heart of most policial parties. They are supposed to protect this country. One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 Mar 22 3.47pm

Originally posted by BlueJay

I have said this lots of time on this board we rely on our energy from some of the most dodgy regimes around the world.

Energy and Food independence should be at the heart of most policial parties. They are supposed to protect this country.

One more point

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The groover Danbury 10 Mar 22 3.56pm
I see the russians are now claiming that the bombing of the maternity hospital was fake news and it was full of nazi's...... Well having seen the video's i'm sold...... They have also banned exports to countries that have sanctioned them. Good job I don't drink vodka but where am I going to get my dolls inside dolls now?
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The groover

Danbury 10 Mar 22 3.56pm

I see the russians are now claiming that the bombing of the maternity hospital was fake news and it was full of nazi's......

Well having seen the video's i'm sold......

They have also banned exports to countries that have sanctioned them. Good job I don't drink vodka but where am I going to get my dolls inside dolls now?

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 4.00pm
Originally posted by Badger11 I have said this lots of time on this board we rely on our energy from some of the most dodgy regimes around the world. Energy and Food independence should be at the heart of most policial parties. They are supposed to protect this country. Yes, it like be looked back on an archaic that we were so reliant on oil, often from dodgy regimes. The argument against due to temporarily price rises due to subsidies and the like has only succeeded in getting us massively higher bills than ever due to .... foreign oil. The day we're genuinely self reliant for our energy needs will be a good one. Renewable technologies and the like are fast improving too. It's a shame that it's another area that's been mindlessly politicised in both directions to our detriment.
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 4.00pm

Originally posted by Badger11

I have said this lots of time on this board we rely on our energy from some of the most dodgy regimes around the world.

Energy and Food independence should be at the heart of most policial parties. They are supposed to protect this country.

Yes, it like be looked back on an archaic that we were so reliant on oil, often from dodgy regimes. The argument against due to temporarily price rises due to subsidies and the like has only succeeded in getting us massively higher bills than ever due to .... foreign oil. The day we're genuinely self reliant for our energy needs will be a good one. Renewable technologies and the like are fast improving too. It's a shame that it's another area that's been mindlessly politicised in both directions to our detriment.

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 4.06pm
Originally posted by The groover I see the russians are now claiming that the bombing of the maternity hospital was fake news and it was full of nazi's...... The fake news mantra by on large is used to diminish the inconvenient rather than actual lies. No wonder they want to wish it away, but there are now so many more examples of civilian areas (and individual civilians) being targetted really they have no believable answer. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to soon see them conjure up a chemical/biological/nuclear event and point the finger at Ukraine. As the aggressor they need all the lies they can muster up to prop up supportat home. Hence the arrests, the laws against even referring to this war, ludicrous 'denazifying' reasoning etc.
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 4.06pm

Originally posted by The groover

I see the russians are now claiming that the bombing of the maternity hospital was fake news and it was full of nazi's......

The fake news mantra by on large is used to diminish the inconvenient rather than actual lies. No wonder they want to wish it away, but there are now so many more examples of civilian areas (and individual civilians) being targetted really they have no believable answer. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to soon see them conjure up a chemical/biological/nuclear event and point the finger at Ukraine. As the aggressor they need all the lies they can muster up to prop up supportat home. Hence the arrests, the laws against even referring to this war, ludicrous 'denazifying' reasoning etc.

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BlueJay UK 10 Mar 22 7.01pm
"Asked whether it was planning to attack other countries, Lavrov said: "We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn't attack Ukraine in the first place" At long last, we have a new pretender to the Baghdad Bob throne.
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BlueJay

UK 10 Mar 22 7.01pm

"Asked whether it was planning to attack other countries, Lavrov said: "We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn't attack Ukraine in the first place"

At long last, we have a new pretender to the Baghdad Bob throne.

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