Whilst I am encouraged by the early indications regarding the Omicron variant being less severe in terms of serious illness my optimism has been tempered somewhat today by reports I have been reading from SAGE and other groups around the potential hospitalisations.

In short they have been saying that thus far most of the Omicron cases have largely been in younger people who are less likely to get seriously ill and there is real concern about what happens when it hits the old and vulnerable populations. Also that despite it being up to 70% less severe in terms of illness it is hugely worse in terms of infection rates and transmissibility so the two could cancel themselves out and we could still see huge numbers of hospitalisations in the coming weeks. All of this alongside a much depleted level of Doctors and Nurses who themselves have become infected.

Edited by Phil’s Barber (24 Dec 2021 3.57pm)

Whilst I am encouraged by the early indications regarding the Omicron variant being less severe in terms of serious illness my optimism has been tempered somewhat today by reports I have been reading from SAGE and other groups around the potential hospitalisations.

In short they have been saying that thus far most of the Omicron cases have largely been in younger people who are less likely to get seriously ill and there is real concern about what happens when it hits the old and vulnerable populations. Also that despite it being up to 70% less severe in terms of illness it is hugely worse in terms of infection rates and transmissibility so the two could cancel themselves out and we could still see large numbers of hospitalisations in the coming weeks. All of this alongside a much depleted level of Doctors and Nurses who themselves have become infected and are off work.

Edited by Phil’s Barber (24 Dec 2021 4.03pm)

Oh dear this is SO unbelievably poor Tim, have you even read the ‘Fact Check’ article that you found?!

In it it clearly states…

In the three months up to the end of July, 73% of ICU admissions were unvaccinated, but that figure had dropped to 47% in October and 48% in the first half of November.

The ICNARC data is about the number of ICU admissions, not the number of patients in ICU at any given time. It is possible unvaccinated Covid patients in ICU tend to be more severely ill. If so, it is also possible they spend longer in ICU on average, and might therefore make up the majority “in ICU” at a given time—but we don't have clear evidence on this so we can't say for sure.
The proportions may have changed again since the ICNARC data was published. It only goes up to 15 November, which predates the spread of the Omicron variant .

I clearly stated that the ‘90% of patients in ICU are unvaccinated’ claim, as reported this week by literally tens of mainstream media outlets, is for the current situation. Your alleged fact check data only goes up to 15 November which is almost 6 weeks ago AND is the number of ‘Admissions’ to ICU not the number of people actually in ICU. Your own Fact Check article even emphasises this point!

So in summary;
1) You haven’t even challenged the correct data.
2) The ICNARC data doesn’t include Scotland (which is most definitely part of the UK)
3) Your article refers to the wrong dates by some margin - so much so that ALL of the data ‘predates the spread of the Omicron’ variant.

Good Effort! You can pretty much find anything to prove anything on the internet…but when you do at least make it support your argument!

Edited by Phil’s Barber (24 Dec 2021 10.46am)

You too mate. Fingers crossed eh!

The problem with The Great Barrington declaration is the amount of people in households with people who would need to isolate. That would obviously depend on how far and how low you go with % risk but in 2020 the opposition to this had it at a very high % of the population isolating, with a lot of key workers in these households. The other big factor is how long you’d have them isolating. They would still be isolating now and into 2022.

The vulnerable isolating wouldn’t have meant this would have gone away. It might have meant Alpha and Delta blew through the population but there’s just another variant on the way, and another and another potentially. You could respond with needing to accept this and move on. To be able to do that in a responsible way the NHS would need more resources. This doesn’t happen instantly. They knew this when they dismantled the nightingale hospitals but erected them if a tsunami of death arose. They were only going to be manned by retired health workers and the army temporarily.

Whichever solution people propose there’s going to be losers, and that’s been happening with virtually every decision and restriction. I certainly agree that it’s an unfair burden of debt on the younger generations and their future, and oddly last year many remainers were arguing for a year long lockdown after pointing the finger at Leave voters for ruining the lives and futures of younger generations. But it seems we’re joining the whole of the western world on that one.

I don’t know where they’re going to go with this 4th vax in spring and one every 3 months even if they start with vulnerable, and then, as we’ve seen, move onto everyone else, and that could be it for me.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (23 Dec 2021 6.57pm)