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Stirlingsays 23 Dec 21 11.31am
Originally posted by DanH You don’t understand what that means either. Oh I understand alright. Pure sophistry. 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)
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Stirlingsays

23 Dec 21 11.31am

Originally posted by DanH

You don’t understand what that means either.

Oh I understand alright.

Pure sophistry.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 11.35am
Originally posted by DanH You don’t understand what that means either. I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time? Red and Blue Army!
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ASCPFC

Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 11.35am

Originally posted by DanH

You don’t understand what that means either.

I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time?

Red and Blue Army!

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BlueJay UK 23 Dec 21 11.39am
Originally posted by ASCPFC I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time? Out of interest I seem to recall that the vaccine side effects for you were worse than most. Did they end up offering you a different shot? If so did that make any difference? As big a proponent as I am, I appreciate that there are uncommon circumstances that can make it a more difficult decision to make. Also, in terms of requiring documentation to travel etc, there should have been exceptions to account for that.
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BlueJay

UK 23 Dec 21 11.39am

Originally posted by ASCPFC

I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time?

Out of interest I seem to recall that the vaccine side effects for you were worse than most. Did they end up offering you a different shot? If so did that make any difference? As big a proponent as I am, I appreciate that there are uncommon circumstances that can make it a more difficult decision to make. Also, in terms of requiring documentation to travel etc, there should have been exceptions to account for that.

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Rudi Hedman Caterham 23 Dec 21 11.44am
Originally posted by Mapletree This dated pronouncement has been overtaken by events. It was never feasible to follow the recommendations. The number of at risk people to protect whilst you ‘let it rip’ would have been far too great and herd immunity potentially impossible due to natural immunity neither lasting nor being effective against mutations. The pronouncement was not peer reviewed and did not stand up to either theoretical or practical tests. Anywhere trying it would have had its medical system swamped like Italy early on and latterly Brazil. It was always better to buy time and then implement a vaccination programme. There are so many rebuttals I can’t do them justice The John Snow Memorandum, published in The Lancet, is a response by 80 researchers denouncing the herd immunity approach of the Great Barrington Declaration. Taking its name from John Snow, the epidemiologist who worked on the 1854 Broad Street cholera outbreak, it states that the herd immunity idea is "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence". It acknowledges that COVID-19 restrictions have led to demoralization, making such an idea attractive, but states that "there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2", adding that "such a strategy would not lead to the end of COVID-19, but instead result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination." The Francis Crick Institute's group leader of the cell biology of infection laboratory, Rupert Beale, said herd immunity is "very unlikely" to be built up before a COVID-19 vaccine is generally implemented. Of the Great Barrington Declaration he said the "declaration prioritises just one aspect of a sensible strategy – protecting the vulnerable – and suggests we can safely build up 'herd immunity' in the rest of the population. This is wishful thinking. It is not possible to fully identify vulnerable individuals, and it is not possible to fully isolate them. Furthermore, we know that immunity to coronaviruses wanes over time, and re-infection is possible – so lasting protection of vulnerable individuals by establishing 'herd immunity' is very unlikely to be achieved in the absence of a vaccine." I have to admit it has turned out this is the case. However, they opened up too late in summer 2020 and keeping the hospitals effectively closed was criminal. But the lockdown lovers blamed ‘eat out to help out’ outside so the government were damned for anything. COYP
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Rudi Hedman

Caterham 23 Dec 21 11.44am

Originally posted by Mapletree

This dated pronouncement has been overtaken by events. It was never feasible to follow the recommendations. The number of at risk people to protect whilst you ‘let it rip’ would have been far too great and herd immunity potentially impossible due to natural immunity neither lasting nor being effective against mutations. The pronouncement was not peer reviewed and did not stand up to either theoretical or practical tests. Anywhere trying it would have had its medical system swamped like Italy early on and latterly Brazil. It was always better to buy time and then implement a vaccination programme.

There are so many rebuttals I can’t do them justice

The John Snow Memorandum, published in The Lancet, is a response by 80 researchers denouncing the herd immunity approach of the Great Barrington Declaration. Taking its name from John Snow, the epidemiologist who worked on the 1854 Broad Street cholera outbreak, it states that the herd immunity idea is "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by the scientific evidence". It acknowledges that COVID-19 restrictions have led to demoralization, making such an idea attractive, but states that "there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2", adding that "such a strategy would not lead to the end of COVID-19, but instead result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination."

The Francis Crick Institute's group leader of the cell biology of infection laboratory, Rupert Beale, said herd immunity is "very unlikely" to be built up before a COVID-19 vaccine is generally implemented. Of the Great Barrington Declaration he said the "declaration prioritises just one aspect of a sensible strategy – protecting the vulnerable – and suggests we can safely build up 'herd immunity' in the rest of the population. This is wishful thinking. It is not possible to fully identify vulnerable individuals, and it is not possible to fully isolate them. Furthermore, we know that immunity to coronaviruses wanes over time, and re-infection is possible – so lasting protection of vulnerable individuals by establishing 'herd immunity' is very unlikely to be achieved in the absence of a vaccine."

I have to admit it has turned out this is the case. However, they opened up too late in summer 2020 and keeping the hospitals effectively closed was criminal. But the lockdown lovers blamed ‘eat out to help out’ outside so the government were damned for anything.

COYP

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 23 Dec 21 12.08pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays So you can say big sites don't have the block facility and when I point out they actually do you come up with waffle that because they differ that somehow doesn't apply.....nonsense as usual. If I remember correctly the bbs has a block facility.....if that's not correct I'm happy to be corrected. You are free to comment on any subject. You are being asked to stop responding to a specific poster's posts. You do not need to attach your response directly to that poster. You are just being disingenuous. Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Dec 2021 10.50am) I didn't say you couldn't block. Only it doesn't do it the way you appear to want to. FB is, dare I say it, rather more sophisticated than even the excellent Hol. I have no idea whether the BBS has such a facility. I rarely, if ever, use it. Maybe you would be happier there? Responding directly to a post suits me, but it also leaves no doubt as to the subject being addressed. I repeat. If you don't want to read such responses you are not obliged to. Others might. The answer to your problem lies in your own hands, but why seek to interfere with the way others do things? Those who preach self-reliance ought to practise it, rather than asking others to do it for them. In most other circumstance you would agree, so why not now? Edited by Wisbech Eagle (23 Dec 2021 12.24pm) For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 23 Dec 21 12.08pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

So you can say big sites don't have the block facility and when I point out they actually do you come up with waffle that because they differ that somehow doesn't apply.....nonsense as usual.

If I remember correctly the bbs has a block facility.....if that's not correct I'm happy to be corrected.

You are free to comment on any subject.

You are being asked to stop responding to a specific poster's posts.

You do not need to attach your response directly to that poster.

You are just being disingenuous.

Edited by Stirlingsays (23 Dec 2021 10.50am)

I didn't say you couldn't block. Only it doesn't do it the way you appear to want to. FB is, dare I say it, rather more sophisticated than even the excellent Hol. I have no idea whether the BBS has such a facility. I rarely, if ever, use it. Maybe you would be happier there?

Responding directly to a post suits me, but it also leaves no doubt as to the subject being addressed. I repeat. If you don't want to read such responses you are not obliged to. Others might. The answer to your problem lies in your own hands, but why seek to interfere with the way others do things? Those who preach self-reliance ought to practise it, rather than asking others to do it for them. In most other circumstance you would agree, so why not now?

Edited by Wisbech Eagle (23 Dec 2021 12.24pm)

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 12.09pm
Originally posted by BlueJay Out of interest I seem to recall that the vaccine side effects for you were worse than most. Did they end up offering you a different shot? If so did that make any difference? As big a proponent as I am, I appreciate that there are uncommon circumstances that can make it a more difficult decision to make. Also, in terms of requiring documentation to travel etc, there should have been exceptions to account for that. Mine were two Moderna shots, I then got Covid 3 months later. I'm not eligible for the booster yet, as I've just had Covid. There is no choice of vaccine or booster in Ireland. Young people got a choice of the Jansen for a while but now it's pot luck. Main thing seems to be expiry date on the frozen ones. So Pfizer and Moderna mainly. Ireland never liked AZ and took the EU line on it, as in most decisions. I'm not keen on having the booster as I still have bad pain in my injection site and other pains since June. I just get on with it. One person I know had the Jansen jab and nearly died. They are seriously ill, basically like a paraplegic. They still say they did the right thing. To me, personally, that's a bit over the top. Red and Blue Army!
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ASCPFC

Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 12.09pm

Originally posted by BlueJay

Mine were two Moderna shots, I then got Covid 3 months later. I'm not eligible for the booster yet, as I've just had Covid. There is no choice of vaccine or booster in Ireland. Young people got a choice of the Jansen for a while but now it's pot luck. Main thing seems to be expiry date on the frozen ones. So Pfizer and Moderna mainly. Ireland never liked AZ and took the EU line on it, as in most decisions.
I'm not keen on having the booster as I still have bad pain in my injection site and other pains since June. I just get on with it. One person I know had the Jansen jab and nearly died. They are seriously ill, basically like a paraplegic. They still say they did the right thing. To me, personally, that's a bit over the top.

Red and Blue Army!

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DanH SW2 23 Dec 21 12.10pm
Originally posted by ASCPFC I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time? Yes thankfully, thank you! Wife caught it off me but thankfully very mildly and we’re both fine now. Little one’s first Christmas but plans now scuppered as the mother in law tested positive this morning. Got mine round Boxing Day so could be on chef duty twice. Pray for everyone.
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DanH

SW2 23 Dec 21 12.10pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

I presume you've recovered and out of isolation? Baby's first Christmas, or am I losing time?

Yes thankfully, thank you! Wife caught it off me but thankfully very mildly and we’re both fine now. Little one’s first Christmas but plans now scuppered as the mother in law tested positive this morning. Got mine round Boxing Day so could be on chef duty twice. Pray for everyone.

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BlueJay UK 23 Dec 21 12.20pm
Originally posted by ASCPFC Mine were two Moderna shots, I then got Covid 3 months later. I'm not eligible for the booster yet, as I've just had Covid. There is no choice of vaccine or booster in Ireland. Young people got a choice of the Jansen for a while but now it's pot luck. Main thing seems to be expiry date on the frozen ones. So Pfizer and Moderna mainly. Ireland never liked AZ and took the EU line on it, as in most decisions. I'm not keen on having the booster as I still have bad pain in my injection site and other pains since June. I just get on with it. One person I know had the Jansen jab and nearly died. They are seriously ill, basically like a paraplegic. They still say they did the right thing. To me, personally, that's a bit over the top. Due to your own experience I can see why you'd be on the wary side. All in all I think there's enough data out there that it's certainly saved a great many lives, and that there are far, far more horror stories due to avoiding the vaccine than having it. However, from an individual perspective, and taking into account that having a bad reaction to the vaccine doesn't necessarily mean that it's saved you from a bad reaction from covid, I'd either try to different vaccine (as you'd probably be fine with that - but it doesn't look like an option) or as you say not bother. Your decision certainly doesn't sound like an unreasonable one.
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BlueJay

UK 23 Dec 21 12.20pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

Due to your own experience I can see why you'd be on the wary side. All in all I think there's enough data out there that it's certainly saved a great many lives, and that there are far, far more horror stories due to avoiding the vaccine than having it. However, from an individual perspective, and taking into account that having a bad reaction to the vaccine doesn't necessarily mean that it's saved you from a bad reaction from covid, I'd either try to different vaccine (as you'd probably be fine with that - but it doesn't look like an option) or as you say not bother. Your decision certainly doesn't sound like an unreasonable one.

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Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 23 Dec 21 12.22pm
Originally posted by Phil’s Barber Yes Tim and if you read it fully they are fact Checking Dr. Hillary and Lorraine Kelly who said incorrectly that 90% of patients ‘in hospital’ were unvaccinated. That isn’t correct, the claim is 90% of people ‘in Intensive care’ with COVID are unvaccinated and that is the situation being reported this week in numerous media outlets and the point I was highlighting on here. Whether it’s actually 9 out of ten or 8 out of ten it is currently an extremely high percentage of unvaccinated people in ICU. As I have mentioned before my sister is a Doctor but her current full time employment is as a Director of the NHS, she is now back on the front line in the hospital wards helping out as they are so short staffed. She said to me two days ago that ICU’s where she is working are full of unvaccinated people with COVID who are pleading with them to be given the vaccine. I couldn’t repeat on here what else she says about the situation. Edited by Phil’s Barber (23 Dec 2021 11.38am) My wife is a nurse currently working in A & E. When I dropped her there at 6.30 this morning it was the first time for a while that the unit wasn't full of ambulances with triaged patients waiting for beds. Some ambulance staff have been spending their entire shift just parked outside the hospital. I counted around 40 on one day last week. I'll check with her later, but I am assuming they have arranged extra capacity by cancelling elective surgery. Today there were only a handful there. For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.
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Wisbech Eagle

Truro Cornwall 23 Dec 21 12.22pm

Originally posted by Phil’s Barber

Yes Tim and if you read it fully they are fact Checking Dr. Hillary and Lorraine Kelly who said incorrectly that 90% of patients ‘in hospital’ were unvaccinated. That isn’t correct, the claim is 90% of people ‘in Intensive care’ with COVID are unvaccinated and that is the situation being reported this week in numerous media outlets and the point I was highlighting on here.

Whether it’s actually 9 out of ten or 8 out of ten it is currently an extremely high percentage of unvaccinated people in ICU.

As I have mentioned before my sister is a Doctor but her current full time employment is as a Director of the NHS, she is now back on the front line in the hospital wards helping out as they are so short staffed. She said to me two days ago that ICU’s where she is working are full of unvaccinated people with COVID who are pleading with them to be given the vaccine. I couldn’t repeat on here what else she says about the situation.

Edited by Phil’s Barber (23 Dec 2021 11.38am)

My wife is a nurse currently working in A & E. When I dropped her there at 6.30 this morning it was the first time for a while that the unit wasn't full of ambulances with triaged patients waiting for beds. Some ambulance staff have been spending their entire shift just parked outside the hospital. I counted around 40 on one day last week. I'll check with her later, but I am assuming they have arranged extra capacity by cancelling elective surgery. Today there were only a handful there.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

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BlueJay UK 23 Dec 21 12.22pm
Originally posted by DanH Yes thankfully, thank you! Wife caught it off me but thankfully very mildly and we’re both fine now. Little one’s first Christmas but plans now scuppered as the mother in law tested positive this morning. Got mine round Boxing Day so could be on chef duty twice. Pray for everyone. Glad you're all well and I hope the mother in law is soon back in good health. Let's hope we're moving past the worst of it and that your little'un has appeared at the right moment to avoid these times best forgotten!
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BlueJay

UK 23 Dec 21 12.22pm

Originally posted by DanH

Glad you're all well and I hope the mother in law is soon back in good health. Let's hope we're moving past the worst of it and that your little'un has appeared at the right moment to avoid these times best forgotten!

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Mapletree Croydon 23 Dec 21 1.05pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays Nope, you have your opportunity to state what this table says. Otherwise, stop wasting my time. Who do you think you are? You are certainly not my teacher. And as far as wasting time, it is clear you do a great deal of that whereas I don't waste yours. Turning to the data, I have long understood that you don't like arguing based upon the objective facts. It therefore comes as no surprise to me that you appear incapable of interpreting them. In fact it explains a lot. As it appears you did not learn statistics in your STEM studies let me help you, just this once. The data are laid out by age group. So for the up to 18 year old group, during the relevant four week period there were 634 people with COVID going into Acute Emergency Care. That means A&E in hospitals followed by at least one night in hospital. Of those it wasn't possible to determine vaccination status for 21. Of the remaining 613, 19 were fully vaccinated and a further 37 partially vaccinated. That means they did not have two vaccinations more than 14 days before they presented at A&E. So overall 3% of this age group had been fully vaccinated. By age group: Under 18 3% 18 - 29 28% 30 - 39 31% 40 - 49 45% 50 - 59 54% 60 - 69 61% 70 - 79 70% 80 upwards 79% The overall average is heavily affected by the propensity to need medical treatment for COVID being far greater for older people. Let me now look at your demographic. In the East of England there is a population of 845,191 40 to 49 year olds. Of those 751,252 have had two vaccination doses which is 89%. Across England 6,202,696 people in that age group have had two vaccinations out of a total population of 7,114,942, which is 87%. Effectively doubling your chances of needing hospitalisation isn't smart, especially when so many medical staff in acute settings are currently off with COVID. What these data don't show is what happens next, the figures in ICUs are more dramatic in terms of high numbers of unvaccinated patients. If you would like me to walk you through the above in more detail please feel free to PM me.
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Mapletree

Croydon 23 Dec 21 1.05pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Nope, you have your opportunity to state what this table says.

Otherwise, stop wasting my time.

Who do you think you are? You are certainly not my teacher. And as far as wasting time, it is clear you do a great deal of that whereas I don't waste yours.

Turning to the data, I have long understood that you don't like arguing based upon the objective facts. It therefore comes as no surprise to me that you appear incapable of interpreting them. In fact it explains a lot.

As it appears you did not learn statistics in your STEM studies let me help you, just this once.

The data are laid out by age group. So for the up to 18 year old group, during the relevant four week period there were 634 people with COVID going into Acute Emergency Care. That means A&E in hospitals followed by at least one night in hospital. Of those it wasn't possible to determine vaccination status for 21. Of the remaining 613, 19 were fully vaccinated and a further 37 partially vaccinated. That means they did not have two vaccinations more than 14 days before they presented at A&E. So overall 3% of this age group had been fully vaccinated.

By age group:

Under 18 3%
18 - 29 28%
30 - 39 31%
40 - 49 45%
50 - 59 54%
60 - 69 61%
70 - 79 70%
80 upwards 79%

The overall average is heavily affected by the propensity to need medical treatment for COVID being far greater for older people.

Let me now look at your demographic. In the East of England there is a population of 845,191 40 to 49 year olds. Of those 751,252 have had two vaccination doses which is 89%.

Across England 6,202,696 people in that age group have had two vaccinations out of a total population of 7,114,942, which is 87%.

Effectively doubling your chances of needing hospitalisation isn't smart, especially when so many medical staff in acute settings are currently off with COVID. What these data don't show is what happens next, the figures in ICUs are more dramatic in terms of high numbers of unvaccinated patients.

If you would like me to walk you through the above in more detail please feel free to PM me.

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ASCPFC Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 3.19pm
Nearly 10,000 new cases in Ireland today. A lot when you consider the population. Obviously going to be loads more over the next few days. I wonder if the government will hold their nerve or try to police Christmas family gatherings? I expect a lot have changed their plans already. A real shame. Red and Blue Army!
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ASCPFC

Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 23 Dec 21 3.19pm

Nearly 10,000 new cases in Ireland today. A lot when you consider the population. Obviously going to be loads more over the next few days. I wonder if the government will hold their nerve or try to police Christmas family gatherings? I expect a lot have changed their plans already. A real shame.

Red and Blue Army!

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