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The Election Thread

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Midlands Eagle Flag 27 Nov 19 10.30am Send a Private Message to Midlands Eagle Add Midlands Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

Might be bad grace but the electoral reality is that his stance actually garners Labour more votes than it loses. That is the Elephant in the room that nobody likes to admit. In terms of voting, the Jewish vote is of far less important to Labour than that of the Muslims.

The Jews may only account for a small minority of voters but other minorities may think "who's next"

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist

Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist

Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist

Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew

Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

 

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Badger11 Flag Beckenham 27 Nov 19 10.51am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

The Jews may only account for a small minority of voters but other minorities may think "who's next"

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist

Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist

Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist

Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew

Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

And for those who don't recognise that poem is written by a German Priest who had an anti Semitic past and post war realised the errors of his way.

 


One more point

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Deleted11 27 Nov 19 11.13am

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Answer. Borrowing by releasing bonds onto the bond market. That’s fiscal policy.

Increasing money supply by printing money is monetary policy.

Private debt is indeed a big problem in Britain but it’s a system that keeps people in the sh1tty jobs to make repayments.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (26 Nov 2019 11.55pm)

Yes, however, we need to be able to service our debt. If our national debt was called up, at any point in time, we would be able to service it.

 

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 27 Nov 19 11.25am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Jway89

Yes, however, we need to be able to service our debt. If our national debt was called up, at any point in time, we would be able to service it.

Yes, although national debt from bonds isn’t ‘called up’ at any time because the bonds have a specific lifespan. In 10 years the bond holder is paid by the treasury (government).

If you’re talking about reducing the deficit so the increase in borrowing is reduced year n year then yes, you ideally don’t want the debt to forever grow.

 


COYP

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Deleted11 27 Nov 19 11.32am

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Originally posted by Jway89
I think the deficit is misrepresented, most of the time on purpose and obviously because politicians just dont understand it. There are basically 2 deficits.
1) The one the gov has with it's own country
2) Trade deficits with other countries

The first is a necessity. If the gov doesnt print money, how else are you going to get it?

I'm being a little dim here because it isn't my area ...but taxation?

Raise what you require and live within that budget.

Absolutely. Now, let's say we held a referendum on what we wanted as a society and for the sake of simplicity, the vote was 52/48 in favour of all the social services we have now. That means higher taxes for everyone, but with the 'rich' paying more, in effect having a harsher tax system than what Labour a currently proposing. Rich people will be fleeing left, right and centre.

Originally posted by Jway89
The second can be good and bad. If you have a trade deficit, the likelihood is you are in a developed country and trying to run a surplus will most likely lead to a recession.

I think Trump's approach has seriously dented some of these assumptions. He was told that re-balancing these trade agreements would send the US and world economy spiraling downwards....didn't happen.

Trump is determined to reduce trade deficits and quite frankly his approach hasn't had the 'experts' predicted downturn effects.

Big difference between trying and actually doing. If you can point out anything Trump has actually implemented, of note, with regards to trade deficits, please show me. I'd probably give him kudos for NAFTA.

This, conveniently, leads to Brexit. The idea that the UK would be able to do anything but bend over and let the EU, Asia and the USA do whatever they wanted in regards to trade is quite laughable. Not saying Brexit is stupid, as there are plenty of issues with the EU, but the protection it offers, economically, for me, outweighs the negatives.

Originally posted by Jway89
The problem is private debt, but, the genie has been let out now and the mass debt people are taking on end up being assets to the wealthy and obviously support smaller businesses, etc.

Im not even sure what would happen if the banks started lending 'conservatively'.


Didn't we have that cira 2009-2011? Exactly. and look, house prices were depressed like no tomorrow. If you live in and around Croydon, you could've bought a 2/3 bed house, not flat for around £210k in 2010. The Tories put in their policy to basically cover 20% of a deposit and now you're looking at £350k for a 2 bed flat. All to raise stamp duty earnings.

I get what you are saying....that economies run on debt and promises of interest repayments down the line.

But long term isn't this system holed below the water line? Can capitalism just continue forever with ever increasing debt levels.....Surely the interest on these things is going to be too large at some point.

Interest rates in the EU are largely 0 to negative. Base rate is 0.75% here and I think inflation is in and around 2%, so in effect negative. Bonds are basically being traded as shares with no dividends, just appreciation. God knows how that's going to work.


 

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Stirlingsays Flag 27 Nov 19 11.35am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Can you briefly say why you agree with the ethics but don’t agree with them?

I also have my views on the land grabbing and annexing and plenty of Jews would just want to change the subject quickly in their right for Israel to exist.

I agree with your opinion that Jews have been good for Britain and I keep my thoughts of Zionism separate, and I can bet some Jews won’t allow me to do so, or try to not allow me to, which could be part of the following problem, but Corbyn hasn’t convinced there’s a distinction.

With Corbyn and labour I think the distinction between the two has become confused. There’s been bullying and applying a feeling among much of the community. There’s also little doubt in my mind the politics of envy comes rushing to the surface and these lefties can’t control themselves with this passionate feeling of whoever shouldn’t have what.

Jews have got their sh1t together and in my opinion it’s a big banner saying leave these people the fvck alone, but they can’t help themselves and they need people who need Labour. I would say hopefully they’re done but we know this is the early days of the rise of socialism because of imported support.

Or Corbyn could just not get involved or poke his beak into every minority or issue everywhere, like other shadow leaders, or even PM’s, but that’s him and his protest default.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (27 Nov 2019 10.19am)

I'd agree with much of that.

I think with Corbyn it's all very well taking a position of anti zionist but when you have appeared with Hamas and been cordial with them it's pretty hard to convince the Jewish lobby that it's all about nuanced distinction....he made his own bed there.

As for my views on the Israel/Palestine question.

Essentially I agree with the Israeli view that peace is impossible. They are locked into a life and death struggle until they clear the west bank and Gaza and there are regime changes in Iran....and probably Qatar.

The ethics of it.....Well there isn't any....It's horrible and nothing but unfairness and injustice.

My advice to Palestinians is to get out into Arab lands....because no one significant really cares. Totally unjust of course but that's the reality.

That's what happened when the UN gave them that patch of land in 47. Essentially I agreed with Einstein's view.....It should never have happened and that Jews will have to fight if they want survival there.

It's a sh1tshow and the Palestinians are going to be slowly forced from the remaining land using the slow process that's been in action over decades.

So my position is the I much prefer Jews to Arabs but that it's the Arabs who have suffered the injustice since WW2. Essentially it's 'might is right', which is how the real world works and that's just how it is.

The Arabs have their chances to take back that land in five wars and lost all of them and Israel continued to expand.....Them the breaks.


Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Nov 2019 11.43am)

mightisright.JPG Attachment: mightisright.JPG (154.02Kb)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 27 Nov 19 12.33pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'd agree with much of that.

I think with Corbyn it's all very well taking a position of anti zionist but when you have appeared with Hamas and been cordial with them it's pretty hard to convince the Jewish lobby that it's all about nuanced distinction....he made his own bed there.

As for my views on the Israel/Palestine question.

Essentially I agree with the Israeli view that peace is impossible. They are locked into a life and death struggle until they clear the west bank and Gaza and there are regime changes in Iran....and probably Qatar.

The ethics of it.....Well there isn't any....It's horrible and nothing but unfairness and injustice.

My advice to Palestinians is to get out into Arab lands....because no one significant really cares. Totally unjust of course but that's the reality.

That's what happened when the UN gave them that patch of land in 47. Essentially I agreed with Einstein's view.....It should never have happened and that Jews will have to fight if they want survival there.

It's a sh1tshow and the Palestinians are going to be slowly forced from the remaining land using the slow process that's been in action over decades.

So my position is the I much prefer Jews to Arabs but that it's the Arabs who have suffered the injustice since WW2. Essentially it's 'might is right', which is how the real world works and that's just how it is.

The Arabs have their chances to take back that land in five wars and lost all of them and Israel continued to expand.....Them the breaks.


Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Nov 2019 11.43am)

Yes I can’t really disagree with that. I agree that if I were Palestinian I’d get out of there, but then if I were Israeli I’d get out of there as well and try America. I would’ve done years and years ago, especially as real estate value must be rising and rising.

Pretty difficult to accept a potential PM has been friends with terrorist groups, and then you factor in terrorist groups in opposition to his (ahem) country and its closest allies. Amazing really. Any of these politicians could be leaders or PMs in future. Frightening. No unwritten rules anymore. Gangs stampeding into power is where we’re going (again, gulp).

 


COYP

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Stirlingsays Flag 27 Nov 19 12.42pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Jway89


I think on trade until the US deals with China the ultimate conclusions can't be drawn.....Trump can be celebrated for being the one who finally drew the line in the sand.

I note that Trump drew more favourable deals with the EU and Mexico.....I don't know what the current trade situation looks like but I note the strength of the US economy.

That's really the point here....the predicted disasters that many 'experts' predicted from Trump's tax and trade plans simply haven't happened.....I've been listening to the critical book on Trump, 'Fear'....those predictions simply didn't occur.

On Brexit, I think there are both disadvantages and advantages to being outside the EU trading block. Merkel has stated her fears of how the UK can compete and it's a reality that if the EU plays dirty that we can respond dirty as well and make Ireland look like amateurs.

I think the reality will be a compromise....I think that's what Boris's deal is and I think that's how the EU/UK relations will start off post Brexit.

Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Nov 2019 12.43pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Deleted11 27 Nov 19 12.55pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Yes, although national debt from bonds isn’t ‘called up’ at any time because the bonds have a specific lifespan. In 10 years the bond holder is paid by the treasury (government).

If you’re talking about reducing the deficit so the increase in borrowing is reduced year n year then yes, you ideally don’t want the debt to forever grow.

But with lower and lower interest payments to be made on the bonds, why wouldn't you increase it now?

I can see an obvious stall in the appetite of holding bonds, if they don't pay any interest, but it seems reasonable to increase the debt now than ever before.

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 27 Nov 19 12.56pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Hearing Corbyn fear monger on the NHS over a US trade deal just smacks of desperation.....and not a little anti American sentiment.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Deleted11 27 Nov 19 1.16pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I think on trade until the US deals with China the ultimate conclusions can't be drawn.....Trump can be celebrated for being the one who finally drew the line in the sand.

I note that Trump drew more favourable deals with the EU and Mexico.....I don't know what the current trade situation looks like but I note the strength of the US economy.

That's really the point here....the predicted disasters that many 'experts' predicted from Trump's tax and trade plans simply haven't happened.....I've been listening to the critical book on Trump, 'Fear'....those predictions simply didn't occur.

On Brexit, I think there are both disadvantages and advantages to being outside the EU trading block. Merkel has stated her fears of how the UK can compete and it's a reality that if the EU plays dirty that we can respond dirty as well and make Ireland look like amateurs.

I think the reality will be a compromise....I think that's what Boris's deal is and I think that's how the EU/UK relations will start off post Brexit.

Edited by Stirlingsays (27 Nov 2019 12.43pm)

Maybe I'm too down on him, but imo, Trump either won't get a second term (Which would be most beneficial for him) or he, like most republican presidents will preside over another financial crisis.

You'll need to show me how you measure a good economy. The stock market is hitting all time highs, but I'm not sure how that is a sign of a good economy. Yes, he's got unemployment slightly lower than Obama, but the trend was there. He hasn't his the GDP growth Obama managed yet, He is increasing the deficitandx since this is partially a trade chat, his trade deficits compared to Obama's are far worse. Bringing this back to the election here, it's no different than what Farage or Boris or even Corbyn are saying. They can fix everything, but they can't really.

I'll need to read the book, but, as with anything relating to policy and economics, in this day and age, I would always advise checking the source of the prediction and then investigating the reasoning on why they have concluded on that prediction and again, back to the election/Brexit, there is no talk about solutions to problems. All I hear are catastrophes from one side and indifference from the other.

 

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Badger11 Flag Beckenham 27 Nov 19 1.25pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Hearing Corbyn fear monger on the NHS over a US trade deal just smacks of desperation.....and not a little anti American sentiment.

Corbyn is entitled to raise the issue but even the BBC has said there is no evidence that ministers agreed anything. These were preliminary talks so naturally both sides will state what they want that doesn't mean they will get it.

Now that the noise has ben made I can't see any Tory government agreeing this so to that extent its job done.

 


One more point

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