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dynamicdick Dormansland 31 May 16 4.33am | |
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Originally posted by Holmesdale62
But the 1922 committee could accept an anonymous list from Tory MPs asking for a vote of no confidence. Then Cameron would have to wait the outcome of an in house election for him to continue as Tory leader and bye bye if the vote goes against him. I don't know who would be running the country if this happens though (anyone know?) but of course front runner would be Boris. So we could get a minority vote government with a leader we didn't elect and the Brexit campaign is based on the British people having control of their laws. Are you rich? No I mean very, very rich? Then don't vote Conservative. The option being Comrade Corbyn..........
Bring back Brolin |
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matt_himself Matataland 31 May 16 6.46am | |
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Following the negative campaigning by the hot potch that is the 'Remain' campaign, plus the dawning realisation that the government simply has no control over immigration, the gap between Remain and Brexit is narrowing:
"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02 |
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leifandersonshair Newport 31 May 16 8.03am | |
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Originally posted by matt_himself
Following the negative campaigning by the hot potch that is the 'Remain' campaign, plus the dawning realisation that the government simply has no control over immigration, the gap between Remain and Brexit is narrowing: As opposed to the equally negative, 'immigration, immigration, immigration' campaign run by the Leave camp? It will probably come down to turnout (or not)of the young. The old are more likely to vote leave, and vote in large numbers. The young tend to be pro Europe and more likely to vote In, but tend not to vote in GE's. Whether they will vote in the referendum is a big question mark...
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DivingIsNotGood se25 31 May 16 9.54am | |
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1. Jobs Around 3.5 million British jobs are directly linked to British membership of the European Union’s single market – 1 in 10 British jobs.
There are various possible candidates for the source of this claim, none of which really stand up Mr Clegg’s argument. In 2000 academics at South Bank University published a study that said about 3.5 million jobs were directly or indirectly dependent on exports to EU countries. As one of the authors, Professor Iain Begg, told us in a previous FactCheck, that doesn’t mean those jobs would be in danger if we left the EU. We would presumably continue to sell goods to our European neighbours even if we left the club. In 2000, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) came up with a similar estimate of jobs associated with exports to EU countries as, apparently, did the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills in 2006, although no one seems to be able to find the original research. NIESR specifically ruled out mass job losses if we pulled out of the EU. Note that both these studies are more than a decade old now, but the key question remains the same: would Britain be able to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU after leaving? Other countries, like Switzerland, have managed to strike trade deals with the EU without joining, but no one has ever tried it after leaving. Would the snub be painful enough for the remaining members to make life difficult for Britain, even at the expense of their economic interests? Since no one has ever left the EU before, this is an unknown quantity. On the other hand, Lord Lawson argues that pulling out would force British businesses out of “the warm embrace of the single market” and focus on raising exports to emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Equally, this is speculation. But there is no proof that jobs which depend on exports to EU countries would automatically be lost in large numbers in the event of a pull-out.
The EU buys over 50 per cent of UK exports (54 per cent of goods, 40 per cent of services).
Analysis of Government statistics released in October shows the true size of the EU export market is far less than the 44 per cent official total. That figure includes goods which go via ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, which are counted as exports to the EU despite them being merely in transit and immediately shipped off to other non-EU countries. While exports to the EU are in decline, business with the Commonwealth and Anglosphere markets such as the US, Australia and Hong Kong is booming. Exports to the Commonwealth and the Anglosphere have reached 33 per cent of the UK total – up from 28 per cent in 1992. The true export tally was uncovered by anti-EU campaign group Get Britain Out. Spokesman Luke Stanley said: “These figures demonstrate how redundant our membership of the EU has become to the British economy. “We must leave the EU now and press ahead arranging free trade agreements with our historic and cultural allies all across the globe. “From the US and Canada in the west to India, Hong Kong and Australia in the east, the potential markets for an independent Britain’s exports are limitless.” The export figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), highlight the decline of Britain’s trade with the other 27 countries in the EU. Even the official figure of 44 per cent is far below the 56.2 per cent share of exports which went to the EU in 1992. The ONS statistics reveal how the 44 per cent figure is arrived at by counting in exports shipped to other countries via EU ports. Ian Milne, chairman of anti-EU business pressure group Global Britain said: “The ONS, in the notes at the back of their annual ‘Pink Book’, draws readers’ attention to this statistical distortion. “Global Britain has attempted to get the ONS, and their masters in Her Majesty’s Government, to address this anomaly, but the perennially Europhile HMG doesn’t want to know. “It would be embarrassing to have to admit that they’d been overstating the importance of the EU to UK trade for years.” Britain’s trade with the EU was one of Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s key arguments for staying in the organisation ahead of the European elections in May this year during his television debates with Ukip leader Nigel Farage, Ukip trade spokesman William Dartmouth MEP said yesterday: “The UK’s rising exports to the Commonwealth and declining exports to the EU demonstrates that there is no economic reason at all for the UK to be in a political union with the low-growth economies of the Eurozone. “Back in 1973 when we joined the then Common Market, we turned our backs on the Commonwealth. “It was a bad mistake then. "Demonstrably, it is even more of a mistake in the 21st century.” 3. Trade The EU negotiates trade agreements with the rest of the world. Outside the EU Britain would have to renegotiate trade deals alone. While the EU is the world’s largest market, a UK outside the EU would not be a high priority for other counties to negotiate a trade deal. This is, again, dishonest. Plenty of countries with smaller economies than the UK have trade deals and free trade agreements with major powers. Crucially, we would not have to negotiate trade deals alone, we can flexibly form alliances and coalitions at the WTO level to secure better terms. Leaving the EU means regaining control of our trade policy, which is now an “exclusive power of the EU”. We could sign our own bilateral free trade agreements or negotiate participation in multilateral agreements in the future. Leaving the EU means we can choose with whom we trade, and on what terms, it means we can take the initiative in matters of trade, rather than taking a back seat and waiting for the cumbersome EU to lead the process, or go the EU cap in hand to ask for them to pursue an agreement to our benefit. Mexico is an interesting example of what can be achieved by a country with a relatively small economy (Mexico’s GDP is $1.295 Trillion) with the agility and independence to act in the globalised economy and take advantage of its strengths and flexibility. Through a policy of pursuing free trade agreements – including with major economies such as China, Japan and the EU – with 45 countries it has been able to lower tariffs for its car exports across the world and achieve favourable deals on the import of components. It has gained a competitive edge over the USA, the world’s largest economy, because the USA, like the EU, has protectionist trade barriers around its market. Mexico has achieved this by making simpler, separate agreement rather the kind of vast, all-encompassing deals the EU prefers. This is a better model for global trade, the EU does things in an old-fashioned and inefficient way. Imagine what the UK (with a GDP of $2.989 Trillion) could achieve if it regained control over its trade policy. We have a flourishing automotive, aerospace and pharmaceutical industry and growing creative industries and a tradition of facilitating free trade by breaking down barriers. Now we are compelled to adopt a common EU position, and wait years while the EU lumbers through negotiations for vast, bundled “big bang” trade deals – with other Member States quibbling over issues related to their own interests and holding back, or even preventing agreement – and we have to go to the EU to ask them to pursue agreements beneficial to our industries. If we leave we’d be able to act independently, and have the agility and flexibility necessary to prosper in the modern era of globalisation, this freedom to act is a fundamental strength befitting of a major modern economy. 4. Consumer clout British families enjoy lower mobile phone roaming charges, lower credit card fees, cheaper flights and proper compensation when flights are delayed or cancelled. These sorts of benefits could not be achieved by Britain alone.
Through commonly agreed EU standards, national Governments have achieved improvements to the quality of air, rivers and beaches. Good for Britain and good for Britons holidaying or living abroad! 6. Power to curb the multinationals The EU has taken on multinational giants like Microsoft, Samsung and Toshiba for unfair competition. The UK would not be able to do this alone. 7. Freedom to work and study abroad – and easy travel 1.4 million British people live abroad in the EU. More than 14,500 UK students took part in the European Union’s Erasmus student exchange scheme in 2012-13. Driving licences issued in the UK are valid throughout the EU. The concerns about high levels of immigration are widespread and need addressing in the long term. However, the fact of the matter is that mass migration is a global issue that cannot simply be managed at a national level, it has complex and multi-layered causes, and the majority of immigration to the UK is from outside the EU. Leaving the EU will however give us the freedom to initiate reforms to the global asylum rules that tarnish the reputation of free movement. The best way forward is, again, intergovernmental cooperation. 8. Peace and democracy The EU has helped secure peace among previously warring western European nations. It helped to consolidate democracy in Spain, Portugal, Greece and former Soviet bloc countries and helped preserve peace in the Balkans since the end of the Balkans War. With the UN it now plays a leading role in conflict prevention, peacekeeping and democracy building. -The forerunner to the EU, the Common Market, didn’t come into existence until 1958, and then only with 6 nations, and yet there was no war between European countries from 1945 to 1956 (except the Hungarian revolution). Whilst peaceful international cooperation is welcomed at all levels, to say the EU is the sole guarantor of peace is an extreme exaggeration that is dishonest in its application. -It is NATO, founded in 1949 and dominated by the USA, and not the EU, that has actually kept the peace in Europe, together with parliamentary democracy. Both of which are being undermined by the EU. -The former German President Herzog wrote a few years ago that ‘the question has to be raised of whether Germany can still unreservedly be called a parliamentary democracy’. This was owing to the number of German laws emanating from the EU- which he assessed at some 84%. -The break up of Yugoslavia was a major test of the EU’s ability to keep the peace. It was EU interference that helped trigger a major civil war and its dithering contributed to deaths of some 100,000 people. It was only decisive action by the US/NATO forces that stopped the violence. Peace was established by the US-brokered Dayton Agreement. 9. Equal pay and non-discrimination Equal pay for men and women is enshrined in EU law, as are bans on discrimination by age, race or sexual orientation. This benefits Britain and British people who live in other EU countries.
As 28 democracies, and as the world’s biggest market, we are strong when we work together. The UK needs agility to take advantage of the emerging global market, but we are always stuck in the same bloc, bound by geography and politican union, and worst of all, we are subordinate and cannot act according to our prerogative. The EU seeks to dictate the terms and timescales and insists upon all-encompassing trade deals that push its social agenda, while the rest of the world progresses with smaller, less complex sector specific deals. Any emerging industry that isn’t at the top of the EU’s list loses out, an emerging industry that is particularly gathering strength in Britain but not across the EU is not going to get the boost it needs if we cannot take the initiative, we shouldn’t have to go to the EU with a begging bowl. Britain is a major technological and intellectual innovator and needs to be taking a leading role on the global stage, convening meetings of nations and non-state actors who have an interest in nurturing industries and emerging economies as well as exploring new ideas. We cannot do that in the EU. The level of influence you exert on the regulatory process is proportionate to the level of technical expertise you can offer, this is an area in which Britain punches well above its weight in the world. We will have a big say in this process after we leave. We need an independent voice at the top table, and a veto, and the ability to choose our alliances according to the situation. 11. Cutting red tape Common rules for the common market make it unnecessary to have 28 sets of national regulations. First, Britain seems to be confused about why the EU regulates in the first place. Why can’t we just have free trade? The answer is that a single market, unlike a bog-standard free trade agreement, tries to pull down trade barriers that arise out of a confusing thicket of national regulations. (Tariffs between EU members were abolished long ago.) Common standards mean that a lawnmower manufactured in Britain can be sold in Germany without falling foul of the German authorities, for instance. This means that if Britain votes to leave the EU, and decides to rip up EU rules, exporters to the continent will face higher, not lower, costs. They would have to make two sets of widgets in order to meet different UK and EU standards. The second reason is that EU rules do not stop British markets from being among the freest in the developed world: the OECD ranks us second after the Netherlands, another EU member. Greece is at the other end of the scale: EU rules, then, do not appear to impose rigid harmonisation on the union as a whole. Under EU "directives", member-states are able to tighten regulation on their own firms if they wish, but must not discriminate against imports from more lightly regulated members of the club. The same story holds true for Britain’s flexible labour market. The costs of "social Europe" are small. Only 1.5 per cent of the British labour force work 48 hours a week, and thus can be said to be constrained by the EU’s working time directive. Far more people work longer hours than the 48-hour limit, because of opt-outs that the UK has negotiated. Meanwhile, the EU’s agency workers regulations – which provide agency temps with the same pay and working rights as regular employees – have not stopped the number of temps from growing quickly since the rules came into force. Fourth, many in business complain that Brussels does not do enough to test whether its regulations impose unnecessary costs. But the OECD tested the European Commission’s rule-making process alongside other countries, and found that it is of better quality than the OECD average – and similar to that of UK and Australia, which the OECD ranks highest. There can be little doubt that some proposals are forced through the EU’s legislative machine without being properly scrutinised, but it is far from clear, on the basis of the OECD’s index at least, that the EU does this more than the UK itself. 12. Fighting crime The European Arrest Warrant replaced long extradition procedures and enables the UK to extradite criminals wanted in other EU countries, and bring to justice criminals wanted in the UK who are hiding in other EU countries. Eurojust helps UK authorities work with other EU countries’ to tackle international organised crime such as drug smuggling, people trafficking and money laundering. There would be an uproar if somebody was held on remand in Britain without any evidence of wrongdoing, how can we support a situation in which someone can be dragged off to another country without a court in Britain being able to look at the evidence? T The European Arrest Warrant means once that form has been filled in, and the application to extradite received, the process is set in motion automatically and cannot be halted by any court in Britain. You can can be dragged off to Spain to face trial for a crime you have allegedly committed without ever having actually been to Spain and without a court in the land ensuring there is solid justification for it. A report by the campaign group Fair Trials International in May 2011 said EAWs “are being issued for minor offences and without proper consideration of whether extradition is proportionate”. Fair Trials International also complained that suspects were “not being provided with legal representation in the issuing state as well as the executing state”. Nobody who claims to believe in liberty and justice can possibly in good conscience support the European Arrest Warrant. “But we need the European Arrest Warrant to fight terrorism and catch paedophiles!” Do we? Really? Is this not rather duplicitous scare mongering? It was possible to extradite terror suspects and sex offenders before the European Arrest Warrant was created, and would be after we removed ourselves from its jurisdiction. The use of the EAW has risen dramatically over the past ten years but of those issued only a very tiny amount of the people arrested were accused of terrorism. Opting out of the EAW simply means that we would revert to having extradition agreements that we had before, the kind we have with many non-EU states. The difference being we would conserve our sovereignty and the suspect would not be extradited without evidence being examined in a British court. This is the crux of the matter. This European Arrest Warrant is a disgraceful interference in our internal affairs and a violation of our national independence. Extradition treaties can be signed individually with other countries, the EAW however is part of EU law which has supremacy over our own. It is one step further towards a pan-European criminal justice system that ignores the inconvenient fact that the British legal system is very different from that of other EU states. To integrate into a EU wide system would mean making our own subordinate. A stride towards a criminal justice system for a united states of Europe As there is little equivalence between our traditions of Common Law and liberty and the continental tradition that have birthed the EU criminal code, this is an unacceptable infringement upon our sovereignty and our freedom as British citizens. Without a uncorrupted judiciary, the presumption of innocence and the guarantee of a fair jury trial we cannot guarantee the liberty people benefit from in Britain will be reciprocated. We receive many EAW’s from former Communist countries with inferior criminal justice systems and a reputation for corruption. In 2009, 4,431 from Poland and 1,900 from Romania were issued and handing over our citizens to the mercy of these countries has become a trivial matter. A sovereign nation state should make its own decision about whether to hand over its citizens to other countries, but we cannot. What the EU intends is to impose a federal law code, corpus juris, on the provincial nation of the union. For Britain this is a particularly disturbing development given the incompatibility of our respective system of laws. Britain has lived under the Common Law for many centuries but it seems that the Napoleonic code will finally be imposed upon us from the continent without a shot being fired. It is happening step by step, as civil and criminal proceedings are harmonised and Europol rapidly becomes a federal police force. The European Arrest Warrant is an essential element of this and a great stride forward to the ultimate goal. Subordinating our legal system makes us an enfeebled nation , happy to have the mere vestiges of an independent country. Allowing us to have our own legal system within, but subordinate to, the EU is simply allowing us the window dressing to save face and uphold a pretence. 13. Research funding The UK is the second largest beneficiary of EU research funds, and the British Government expects future EU research funding to constitute a vital source of income for our world-leading universities and companies.
It is ludicrous and downright dishonest to suggest that leaving the EU means the end of international cooperation. All I advocate is a return to the principles of intergovernmentalism, of the kind historically preferred in Britain, and deliberately undermined by the visionaries of the European project. Leaving the EU will be a new dawn in intergovernmentalism. The EU’s research programmes are extensive and make a huge contribution. We will continue to involve ourselves in a wide range of EU programmes and non-EU programmes in a mutually beneficial relationship with our allies and neighbours. However, these programmes are also regrettably used as a means of strong-arming Member States into surrendering certain controls over their own affairs. This prevents such cooperation from moving forward and expanding. Increasingly we should again look for global cooperation, beyond the confines of the EU, there is no room for parochialism in a globalised world. Also, let’s not forget that although the EU says it funds our universities, we are a net contributor… it is in-fact our own money!
VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again |
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glazedallover Allier 31 May 16 10.03am | |
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I think the word 'muff' is missing from your user name...
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Hoof Hearted 31 May 16 10.21am | |
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Originally posted by davenotamonkey
Herein lies the problem with the referendum: acute cases of confirmation bias like this, with the fantasy £4300 figures thrown in gleefully for good measure. Tell me: where is the 2030 economic forecast for remaining in the EU. Did the treasury not produce one? Odd that. You would think, if a cost-benefit analysis were to be done, both referendum scenarios would receive the same treatment. So, um... the people can come to their own conclusions. Perhaps also to qualify a statement like "If we leave, we lose 10% GDP..." with "...but it we remain we lose 4%". But nope. Nothing there. OK then. Next question. Where is the analysis that actually includes (unlike the treasury edition) the POSITIVES of Brexit? Odd. They would take all the potential negatives from leaving, but not include the positives? Why would they do that? So let's recap the economic impact assessments as provided by the government and gleefully lorded by those on here: EU-Remain Brexit Does anyone NOT have a problem with this? If you were selectively presenting a case for the above to a jury, cherrypicking the argument, would this be even remotely objective? Would a conviction be safe? It is exactly this that causes the confirmation bias. You go out looking for the negatives in the press. You find them. Because there are no studies weighing the forecasted pros and cons for both sides. "But why don't you go and do one then"? Well, I just heard from JohnnyBoy that only the treasury had the top-of-the-range tools, data, and analysis; using alternatives would imply you were "deranged" or something. We could certainly ask them, but it's a bit embarrassing that they didn't finish the cost/benefit matrix above. Perhaps they don't want to? Still, this chap had a pretty good look at the treasury claims, and laid out his perspective: Sure, to our EUphiles on here it's "propaganda" as opposed to "treasury facts" - but then, given the seriously unbalanced treasury narrative above, it's interesting to see this Macroeconomics PhD (working for the EU Commission and producing the "essential theory" behind the UK govt deficit plan) effort. Even under the most pessimistic of conditions and assumptions, he cannot get even close to the treasury 6% GDP loss. Sexed up? As for the OECD report, the assumptions that go into that (no trade deals, ever, with any other nation / bloc in the world, apart from the EU) again bear no relation to reality. When you have a computational model, there is a phrase: "GIGO" - If you put Garbage In, you get Garbage Out..... ...which is why we have claims that leaving the EU will be more devastating than WW1, the great depression and the recent economic crash. Garbage In, Garbage Out. Dave.... stop it now.... Kermit must be fed up to the back teeth of you taking down his trousers and pants and giving him a spanking!
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mezzer Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 31 May 16 10.50am | |
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Just out of interest, how can Norwegian Air be the fastest growing budget airline in Europe if it's so hard to trade within the EU if you're outside it, and if the forecasts of more expensive travel is to be believed?
Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry. |
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Johnny Eagles berlin 31 May 16 11.25am | |
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Is it worth reading all hundred pages of this thread or is it about as enlightening as the guff in the mainstream media? I sent off my ballot yesterday. I voted 'Leave'. Remain will win. In a fit of pique I put a slightly-too-large amount of cash on 'Bremain' to get over 55% of the vote. Got 13/5, now it's down to 2/1. Just to make smug Cameron's face slightly more tolerable on June 24th when he squeaks through to victory once again.
...we must expand...get more pupils...so that the knowledge will spread... |
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We are goin up! Coulsdon 31 May 16 11.29am | |
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Originally posted by Johnny Eagles
Is it worth reading all hundred pages of this thread or is it about as enlightening as the guff in the mainstream media? I sent off my ballot yesterday. I voted 'Leave'. Remain will win. In a fit of pique I put a slightly-too-large amount of cash on 'Bremain' to get over 55% of the vote. Got 13/5, now it's down to 2/1. Just to make smug Cameron's face slightly more tolerable on June 24th when he squeaks through to victory once again.
The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money. |
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Y Ddraig Goch In The Crowd 31 May 16 11.31am | |
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It makes me laugh just how much emphasis the Brexit campaign have put on the Remain's negative campaign. Both campaigns have been woeful. Neither side with a remotely compelling reason to vote for them. I started off as a remain, now not sure (due to the non deal Cameron negotiated) but likely not to vote.
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beagle pom tiddly om pom pom 31 May 16 11.33am | |
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Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood that very long post of yours which I wont quote to save space
Good to read a reasoned Brexit argument btw
When the time comes, I want die just like my Dad - at peace and asleep. |
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Superfly The sun always shines in Catford 31 May 16 1.13pm | |
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I'm out. I've flitted back and forth and changed my mind more often than Cucking at a greased buttock presentation, but I think I'm staying with out. For a few reason (the leave side are winning the argument for me and it's the remain side that are using the most snide tactics (& I'm deeply untrustworthy of all the remain figureheads)). But as I'm overjoyed to see Johnny Eagles back posting, I think I'll let him tell me how to vote as a welcome back pressie. Over to you Johnny ps I agree with Diving I.N.G. (on most things) and Cucking. We could all vote out and it would be fiddled. The lack of panic/comment from the large corporations says to me that they already know the outcome. As if WE would ever get a say in anything that could impact HSBC's profits!
Lend me a Tenor 31 May to 3 June 2017 John McIntosh Arts Centre with Superfly in the chorus |
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