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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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| Hoof Hearted 22 Feb 16 10.38am | |
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Originally posted by chris123
I think it's roughly 50% EU and 50% non EU on imports and exports, exports more invisible. Thanks Chris. See the last line of my EDIT.... and listen to the interview... Lawson actually says our exports to EU represent 15% of our economy.
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Tom-the-eagle  Croydon 22 Feb 16 10.47am |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Thing is, this aspect is never going to change either, because the driving force behind cheap migrant labour are corporate interests of the UK. And the government isn't going to move to prevent companies taking advantage of this, through fear of overshoring (the UK is very dependent on foreign business and investment - as you point out with the import export figures). People seem to be tied into this idea that 'leaving the EU' will result in the UK 'taking back its borders', sending back 'foreign migrant workers' and 'stopping people coming here' - which simply isn't the case. This migration hasn't been because 'everyone wants to live here' its very cost effective for business on wages, a massive boost for private landlords and financially attractive to residents in the poorer EU countries. That won't change. Especially given that the UK is dependent on international corporations in terms of employment. The problem is that the membership of the EU in terms of economy, trade and migration aren't really going to be affected, at least in the short term, by an exit or stay vote (other than impacts on the stock market) - for the most part it'll make no recognisable difference - Companies will still exploit cheap labour markets and negotiate trade on the basis of mutual best interests. Voting exit, because you want 'less foreigners long term in the UK' is as stupid as the idea that suddenly business between the EU and UK will cease. Same as the ideas on 'sovereignty'
Get it? These Polish weren’t here before Poland joined the EU, they are here now! So to say that by leaving the EU will make no difference to the amount of people who move here is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have heard on this site Jamie. Years ago people used to say that in London the streets were paved in gold. Now people say the streets are paved with Poles! As for cooperate interests – if you asked a large corporation if they wish to pay tax – they would say no! if you asked a large corporation if they wanted to adhere to paying the minimum wage – they would say no! what’s in the interests of large corporations is not always in the interests of the British people.
"It feels much better than it ever did, much more sensitive." John Wayne Bobbit |
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 chris123 hove actually 22 Feb 16 10.54am |
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Originally posted by Hoof Hearted
Thanks Chris. See the last line of my EDIT.... and listen to the interview... Lawson actually says our exports to EU represent 15% of our economy. ok - didn't see that, seems a daft way to express something that drives the balance of payments, but he's the ex Chancellor I guess!
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 22 Feb 16 10.55am |
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Originally posted by Tom-the-eagle
Get it? These Polish weren’t here before Poland joined the EU, they are here now! So to say that by leaving the EU will make no difference to the amount of people who move here is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have heard on this site Jamie. Years ago people used to say that in London the streets were paved in gold. Now people say the streets are paved with Poles! As for cooperate interests – if you asked a large corporation if they wish to pay tax – they would say no! if you asked a large corporation if they wanted to adhere to paying the minimum wage – they would say no! what’s in the interests of large corporations is not always in the interests of the British people. What I'm saying is regardless of the vote, in or out, without radical change in government, there will be no change. Corporate interests drive the EU, and they drive the UK. Oddly, if I thought it would result in an outcome that reduced the competition for wages in the lower working classes, I'd be first in line to vote 'out'. I don't disagree that the EU Freedom of Movement resulted in a massive disruption in the flow of migration. Problem is that is a symptom of a problem, which benefits probably the most influential lobby group in the UK - Business interests - and these interests have just as much influence over the UK government as the EU, probably more. Exiting the EU won't change those influences, and their ability to leverage government (bear in mind these interests are the economy and employment in the UK). All that will happen is 'more of the same' with a different name.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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Kermit8  Hevon 22 Feb 16 11.21am |
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Originally posted by Tom-the-eagle
Get it? These Polish weren’t here before Poland joined the EU, they are here now! So to say that by leaving the EU will make no difference to the amount of people who move here is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have heard on this site Jamie. Years ago people used to say that in London the streets were paved in gold. Now people say the streets are paved with Poles! As for cooperate interests – if you asked a large corporation if they wish to pay tax – they would say no! if you asked a large corporation if they wanted to adhere to paying the minimum wage – they would say no! what’s in the interests of large corporations is not always in the interests of the British people. 350,000 Polish have moved on. 675,000 are here now. My oldest friend has married one of them. NHS dentist. Looking after our nation's oral health. How dare they?
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| npn Crowborough 22 Feb 16 11.43am |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
350,000 Polish have moved on. 675,000 are here now. My oldest friend has married one of them. NHS dentist. Looking after our nation's oral health. How dare they? With respect, Kerms, I think you're muddying the waters a bit there. If we left the EU (though I have yet to see any detail on what would happen) I assume a qualified dentist would have no trouble getting in on a working visa in any case. I think it's important to separate the "I hate foreigners" brigade (which exists, I fully admit) from the "I think they should not have an automatic right to come in and work" argument. I don't think (although, again, I've yet to see anyone actually make a bloody argument with some details) anyone is advocating locking the border and not allowing anyone in, more that the UK should have the right to accept or decline people entry as it sees fit, rather than being forced to accept people based on which country they come from. Still firmly on the fence - I'll have an @rse full of splinters before June! To put the tin lid on it, my best mate lives in Spain (and has done for years) and I don't know where a brexit would leave him and his family either. Hopefully someone, at some point, will actually have some sort of debate that doesn't just end up as a "you're all racists" versus "you want to be ruled by Brussels" argument. I won't be holding my breath though
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| Kermit8 Hevon 22 Feb 16 12.10pm |
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Originally posted by npn
With respect, Kerms, I think you're muddying the waters a bit there. If we left the EU (though I have yet to see any detail on what would happen) I assume a qualified dentist would have no trouble getting in on a working visa in any case. I think it's important to separate the "I hate foreigners" brigade (which exists, I fully admit) from the "I think they should not have an automatic right to come in and work" argument. I don't think (although, again, I've yet to see anyone actually make a bloody argument with some details) anyone is advocating locking the border and not allowing anyone in, more that the UK should have the right to accept or decline people entry as it sees fit, rather than being forced to accept people based on which country they come from. Still firmly on the fence - I'll have an @rse full of splinters before June! To put the tin lid on it, my best mate lives in Spain (and has done for years) and I don't know where a brexit would leave him and his family either. Hopefully someone, at some point, will actually have some sort of debate that doesn't just end up as a "you're all racists" versus "you want to be ruled by Brussels" argument. I won't be holding my breath though I get what you say and well said it is too. I do believe, however, that without the foreign care workers, waiters, pub staff, labourers, fruit and veg pickers - and there must be many hundreds of thousands of them from the EU here- we will struggle to maintain our standards of living. Add the potential of lost jobs from the extra costs of trading and one or two other negatives of Brexit already mentioned it feels like the 'Out' campaign is very much using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. I don't see those workers being allowed into the country if we had a points based system or if they were red-tape would rear its ugly and expensive head. Cameron and around 75% of the cabinet think it is wiser to stay. The others want to risk what we already have and roll the dice with fingers crossed hoping it comes up a '7'.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 22 Feb 16 12.24pm |
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Originally posted by npn
Hopefully someone, at some point, will actually have some sort of debate that doesn't just end up as a "you're all racists" versus "you want to be ruled by Brussels" argument. I won't be holding my breath though And of course the cries of "Little Englanders" and all that hogwash.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 22 Feb 16 12.33pm |
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Originally posted by npn
With respect, Kerms, I think you're muddying the waters a bit there. If we left the EU (though I have yet to see any detail on what would happen) I assume a qualified dentist would have no trouble getting in on a working visa in any case. I think it's important to separate the "I hate foreigners" brigade (which exists, I fully admit) from the "I think they should not have an automatic right to come in and work" argument. I don't think (although, again, I've yet to see anyone actually make a bloody argument with some details) anyone is advocating locking the border and not allowing anyone in, more that the UK should have the right to accept or decline people entry as it sees fit, rather than being forced to accept people based on which country they come from. Still firmly on the fence - I'll have an @rse full of splinters before June! To put the tin lid on it, my best mate lives in Spain (and has done for years) and I don't know where a brexit would leave him and his family either. Hopefully someone, at some point, will actually have some sort of debate that doesn't just end up as a "you're all racists" versus "you want to be ruled by Brussels" argument. I won't be holding my breath though I quite agree with this, there is a necessity for the good of the nation to limit low skill migrant workers - and instead focus on shifting people already UK citizens into areas where the demand is such, that it cannot be filled locally. The problem of EU Working legislation isn't so much the numbers, its that it increases competition for jobs, and that in turn reduces wages. A consequence of this means that its viable for someone from the EU, to work a minimum wage job in the UK, because they don't have the huge overheads that someone with a family has, and they have the capacity to move to areas where there is demand. The other option is of course to subsidise the employment of UK Citizens into areas of employment demand from areas with high unemployment (which is more expensive for the state, but in long term goals results in increased employment). But the problem is, that for the state and business its a better deal to use 'temporary migrant labour' (profit for the state and for business).
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 22 Feb 16 12.35pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
I get what you say and well said it is too. I do believe, however, that without the foreign care workers, waiters, pub staff, labourers, fruit and veg pickers - and there must be many hundreds of thousands of them from the EU here- we will struggle to maintain our standards of living. Add the potential of lost jobs from the extra costs of trading and one or two other negatives of Brexit already mentioned it feels like the 'Out' campaign is very much using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. I don't see those workers being allowed into the country if we had a points based system or if they were red-tape would rear its ugly and expensive head. Cameron and around 75% of the cabinet think it is wiser to stay. The others want to risk what we already have and roll the dice with fingers crossed hoping it comes up a '7'. Well yes, if you suddenly removed 650,000 people from employment, inflation would likely go wild. Any transfer would need to be graduated over probably a decade, or subsidised by the state replacing workers from the unemployed on a one to one basis (with subsidisation for the worker).
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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 Hrolf The Ganger 22 Feb 16 12.56pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
What I'm saying is regardless of the vote, in or out, without radical change in government, there will be no change. Corporate interests drive the EU, and they drive the UK. Oddly, if I thought it would result in an outcome that reduced the competition for wages in the lower working classes, I'd be first in line to vote 'out'. I don't disagree that the EU Freedom of Movement resulted in a massive disruption in the flow of migration. Problem is that is a symptom of a problem, which benefits probably the most influential lobby group in the UK - Business interests - and these interests have just as much influence over the UK government as the EU, probably more. Exiting the EU won't change those influences, and their ability to leverage government (bear in mind these interests are the economy and employment in the UK). All that will happen is 'more of the same' with a different name. You are broadly correct but what does change things is votes.
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 22 Feb 16 1.33pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You are broadly correct but what does change things is votes. Quite a bit, as we saw with Scottish Independence - in the run up to the referendum. Fear, nonsense and hyperbole will be bouncing around for the next four or five months, with both sides feeding on the paranoia, and ultimately, it'll result in zero change. Even if we do go 'out', in likelihood the actual reality will be minimal change, a few cosmetic gestures and business as usual. I'm leaning more towards an out than an in. Whilst there are elements of the EU and membership that appeal to me, the EU exists primarily as a means of exerting Corporate pressure on other countries, including member states (things like TTIP, Tax sheltering, EU trade regulations and Freedom of Movement seriously concern me as they represent unaccountable interests).
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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