We have now conceded 8 goals after the 80-minute mark and they have cost us 8 points with draws instead of wins against Brighton (x2) and Arsenal and losses instead of draws against Leeds and Chelsea

By contrast, the 7 goals we have scored late have not produced any extra points. If all matches in the division had ended after 80 minutes we would now be in 9th spot with 34 points. (Liverpool would be only one point behind City with a game in hand)

This is by no means the first time this has happened. Applying the same 'shorter game' approach to the very first Premier League season we would actually have finished 9th instead of getting relegated

Edited by pssguy (22 Feb 2022 12.43am)

it is extremely frustrating. We seem to be awful first half and then good for 35-40 minutes in the second (normally when behind) and then switch off and concede late. Not sure if it's fitness or whatever it is it needs to be fixed. League of fine margins and all that

Excellent analysis.

It's the hope that kills you.

It was so predictable against Chelsea.

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

A couple of the late goals we have conceded followed awful individual or collective errors (the one at home to Brighton was a joke, as was the penalty gifted to Leeds), but I'm actually more concerned about the late goals that can't be put down to an evident mistake, as they follow a pattern of unconvincing basic defending which is costing us no matter what stage of the game it occurs.

The late goals against stick in the memory, but all the poor ones cost us. We have fallen more than one goal behind on a number of occasions and rallied to get a point, or claw back the deficit, bitterly regretting the early concessions either way.

The cause seems simple - the heart of the defensive unit is not very good at traditional defending. Both centre backs were bought to play football (which they do well, and which we now base our whole game around), but both struggle with balls in the air, be it from set plays, wide areas or the other end of the pitch. This isn't helped by a goalkeeper who is a brilliant shot-stopper but not great under the high ball himself.

Andy Thorn, Eric Young and Nigel Martyn they certainly ain't - both with and without the ball.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (22 Feb 2022 5.40pm)

To me, the two obvious reasons for any team conceding late goals are 1. lack of fitness, and 2. lack of concentration, at that stage of a game usually the result of tiredness so to some extent that also comes back to fitness. When a late goal happens to you once or twice, you can write it off to chance (or whatever) but when it happens as often as it has to us, it's less certain it's entirely down to luck.

However, to me, part of the cause is actually the same reason we don't score many goals though in a slightly different way. That is, our movement off the ball, in general, is very, very poor. We don't get players making themselves available and timing runs into dangerous positions nearly often enough when we are in possession; we don't have players anticipating and closing down space competently enough when the other team has possession. The result is that despite having a lot of the ball we don't create nearly as many chances as we should and, conversely, late in the game when we don't have the ball, teams are often able to carve us open.

In the latter case, that has been particularly true as players tire near the end of the game. My conclusion is that Vieira has changed the playing style fairly effectively but for now, his job remains largely half done. We see more of the ball, but we're still nowhere near good enough in reacting to it, both when we're in possession and when we're not. That needs to be corrected by coaching and if I'm honest, it's taking longer to get the message through than I'd have thought.

One worry I have underlying all this is that while the squad presently has a lot of good parts (Wilf, Olise, Eze, Hughes, etc.), the sum of the parts seems to be rather less than the components. Often, I look at us on paper and I see the potential for goals; then I look at us on the pitch during a game and the absence of the creativity that's there on paper is quite shocking in reality. Something is quite obviously missing. One thing I do think we need in the next window is one or two more intelligent players and while Ramsay might not have been the right buy, I can see why Vieira wanted someone of his ilk. To my mind, we are sorely lacking in leaders on the pitch, players who can take a game by the scruff of the neck, slow it down or speed it up, tell their teammates what to do, and dictate the pace of the game. We are short of the experience we need to take the next step and Vieira was right to identify that we need to address that.

The late goals and more generally, the fairly modest results have been particularly frustrating this season because most of us can see we have made progress and are trending in the right direction overall but we also know we've flattered to deceive at times. There's still some way to go before we're the finished product and this summer's window will be Part 2 of what we started last summer. I'm not really that bothered by who goes (Wilf, Gallagher, or anyone else). The key thing will be who comes in because the set of players we have now are clearly not the right mix as a whole for where we need to be to fulfil the potential we obviously have.

Sydenham by birth. Selhurst by the Grace of God.

So many of the late goals are individual errors.

But there are too many for it to be bad luck or coincidence.

Can only assume its fatigue based concentration lapses.

What ever it is, we need to find a fix