Survival Mathmetics

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Survival Mathmetics

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CPO4OFC Redhill 16 Apr 14 12.06pm
I know people will say lets take it game by game but had anybody had the time and brains to work out the mathmetics for survial? Simple case of beat Everton tonight and as long as fulham lose againt spurs on Saturday lunchtime then a draw at West Ham at the very least would see us safe?... My mind is frazzled just looking at the table!
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CPO4OFC

Redhill 16 Apr 14 12.06pm

I know people will say lets take it game by game but had anybody had the time and brains to work out the mathmetics for survial?

Simple case of beat Everton tonight and as long as fulham lose againt spurs on Saturday lunchtime then a draw at West Ham at the very least would see us safe?... My mind is frazzled just looking at the table!

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CPO4OFC Redhill 16 Apr 14 12.07pm
Before somebody jumps all over it... I know i've spelt mathematics wrong!
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CPO4OFC

Redhill 16 Apr 14 12.07pm

Before somebody jumps all over it... I know i've spelt mathematics wrong!

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ambrose7 Croydon 16 Apr 14 12.15pm
We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get: 5 on Cardiff 6 on Fulham 7 on Sunderland 8 on Norwich 9 on Swansea 12 on West Brom 13 on Villa As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe. So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them. Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so really either Sunderland are currently on 4 or Cardiff on 2, as both cannot win. Those numbers are all excluding goal difference. Edited by ambrose7 (16 Apr 2014 1.07pm) 26th January 2010 - Enter Administration 2nd May 2010 - D-Day 1 - Survival at Hillsborough 1st June 2010 - D-Day 2 - Survival at Lloyds 7th June 2010 - CPFC2010 exchange contracts.
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ambrose7

Croydon 16 Apr 14 12.15pm

We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get:

5 on Cardiff
6 on Fulham
7 on Sunderland
8 on Norwich
9 on Swansea
12 on West Brom
13 on Villa

As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe.

So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them.

Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so really either Sunderland are currently on 4 or Cardiff on 2, as both cannot win.

Those numbers are all excluding goal difference.

Edited by ambrose7 (16 Apr 2014 1.07pm)

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Proper_Gander Anerley 16 Apr 14 12.28pm
Assuming Palace lose every single game for the rest of the season, the 3 teams currently in the relegation zone would have to make the following average points per game to have EQUAL points to Palace: Fulham: 1.75pts Cardiff: 2pts Sunderland: 2pts
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Proper_Gander

Anerley 16 Apr 14 12.28pm

Assuming Palace lose every single game for the rest of the season, the 3 teams currently in the relegation zone would have to make the following average points per game to have EQUAL points to Palace:

Fulham: 1.75pts
Cardiff: 2pts
Sunderland: 2pts

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Littlebogreek 16 Apr 14 12.30pm
Basically if we win against Everton, Sunderland and Fulham wont be able to catch us if they lose their next game (Sunderland theoretically will be able to but it will be on goal difference) and Cardiff wont be able to catch us if they draw or lose their next game. If we draw or lose against Everton all kinds of permutations can happen but we are in a far healthier position that I thought we would be. Out of sheer stubbornness I'm still saying that its going down to the last game of the season as that's what I said at the start....
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Littlebogreek

16 Apr 14 12.30pm

Basically if we win against Everton, Sunderland and Fulham wont be able to catch us if they lose their next game (Sunderland theoretically will be able to but it will be on goal difference) and Cardiff wont be able to catch us if they draw or lose their next game. If we draw or lose against Everton all kinds of permutations can happen but we are in a far healthier position that I thought we would be.

Out of sheer stubbornness I'm still saying that its going down to the last game of the season as that's what I said at the start....

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ambrose7 Croydon 16 Apr 14 12.51pm
Quote Littlebogreek at 16 Apr 2014 12.30pm Basically if we win against Everton, Sunderland and Fulham wont be able to catch us if they lose their next game (Sunderland theoretically will be able to but it will be on goal difference) and Cardiff wont be able to catch us if they draw or lose their next game. If we draw or lose against Everton all kinds of permutations can happen but we are in a far healthier position that I thought we would be. Out of sheer stubbornness I'm still saying that its going down to the last game of the season as that's what I said at the start.... Out of a demand for an overdue comfortable end to a season, I think we'll be safe due to the results the weekend of the Liverpool game. Sunderland need to win 4 of 6 to catch us, have City and Chelsea next and they've not won in 5. They should be down by then. Cardiff have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10. Their next 3 games don't look too bad and they could win all three, but would only be 1 point ahead of where we are now and have Chelsea last. Big ask. Fulham are 7 behind with 4 to go and their next game is away at Tottenham. They were battered by Norwich and just beat a very poor Villa side. I can't see them getting 6 points from Spurs, Hull and Stoke to keep it alive so can't catch us one week out. Norwich need to gain at least 3 points on us before the last weekend to keep it alive, and then would need to win on the last day. That means beating two of Liverpool H, United A, Chelsea A and Arsenal H, or a win and drawing the others. Of Villa's next 3 Southampton H, Swansea A, Hull H, I can't see them getting another point bar maybe the Hull game. They need to get 3 points just to draw level with us and on the last day, they're at City. It would be heavily unlikely for West Brom and Swansea to not be able to catch us on the last day. These teams need to have utter miracle runs and us to lose everything for us to not be safe a week out. Not that it couldn't happen, but with how efficient we look it seems unlikely. 26th January 2010 - Enter Administration 2nd May 2010 - D-Day 1 - Survival at Hillsborough 1st June 2010 - D-Day 2 - Survival at Lloyds 7th June 2010 - CPFC2010 exchange contracts.
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ambrose7

Croydon 16 Apr 14 12.51pm

Quote Littlebogreek at 16 Apr 2014 12.30pm

Out of sheer stubbornness I'm still saying that its going down to the last game of the season as that's what I said at the start....

Out of a demand for an overdue comfortable end to a season, I think we'll be safe due to the results the weekend of the Liverpool game.

Sunderland need to win 4 of 6 to catch us, have City and Chelsea next and they've not won in 5. They should be down by then.

Cardiff have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10. Their next 3 games don't look too bad and they could win all three, but would only be 1 point ahead of where we are now and have Chelsea last. Big ask.

Fulham are 7 behind with 4 to go and their next game is away at Tottenham. They were battered by Norwich and just beat a very poor Villa side. I can't see them getting 6 points from Spurs, Hull and Stoke to keep it alive so can't catch us one week out.

Norwich need to gain at least 3 points on us before the last weekend to keep it alive, and then would need to win on the last day. That means beating two of Liverpool H, United A, Chelsea A and Arsenal H, or a win and drawing the others.

Of Villa's next 3 Southampton H, Swansea A, Hull H, I can't see them getting another point bar maybe the Hull game. They need to get 3 points just to draw level with us and on the last day, they're at City.

It would be heavily unlikely for West Brom and Swansea to not be able to catch us on the last day.

These teams need to have utter miracle runs and us to lose everything for us to not be safe a week out. Not that it couldn't happen, but with how efficient we look it seems unlikely.

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lil j-eagle little bookham 16 Apr 14 1.02pm
Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get: 6 on Fulham 7 on Cardiff 7 on Sunderland 8 on Norwich 9 on Swansea 12 on West Brom 13 on Villa As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe. So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them. Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win. Those numbers are all excluding goal difference. very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7 Messi, you're good, but you can't hit a ball like ambrose
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lil j-eagle

little bookham 16 Apr 14 1.02pm

Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm

We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get:

6 on Fulham
7 on Cardiff
7 on Sunderland
8 on Norwich
9 on Swansea
12 on West Brom
13 on Villa

As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe.

So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them.

Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win.

Those numbers are all excluding goal difference.

very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7

Messi, you're good, but you can't hit a ball like ambrose

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ambrose7 Croydon 16 Apr 14 1.05pm
Quote lil j-eagle at 16 Apr 2014 1.02pm Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get: 6 on Fulham 7 on Cardiff 7 on Sunderland 8 on Norwich 9 on Swansea 12 on West Brom 13 on Villa As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe. So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them. Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win. Those numbers are all excluding goal difference. very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7 Was bound to make one mistake! have changed it 26th January 2010 - Enter Administration 2nd May 2010 - D-Day 1 - Survival at Hillsborough 1st June 2010 - D-Day 2 - Survival at Lloyds 7th June 2010 - CPFC2010 exchange contracts.
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ambrose7

Croydon 16 Apr 14 1.05pm

Quote lil j-eagle at 16 Apr 2014 1.02pm

Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm

We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get:

6 on Fulham
7 on Cardiff
7 on Sunderland
8 on Norwich
9 on Swansea
12 on West Brom
13 on Villa

As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe.

So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them.

Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win.

Those numbers are all excluding goal difference.

very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7

Was bound to make one mistake! have changed it

26th January 2010 - Enter Administration
2nd May 2010 - D-Day 1 - Survival at Hillsborough
1st June 2010 - D-Day 2 - Survival at Lloyds
7th June 2010 - CPFC2010 exchange contracts.

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lil j-eagle little bookham 16 Apr 14 1.16pm
Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 1.05pm Quote lil j-eagle at 16 Apr 2014 1.02pm Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get: 6 on Fulham 7 on Cardiff 7 on Sunderland 8 on Norwich 9 on Swansea 12 on West Brom 13 on Villa As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe. So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them. Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win. Those numbers are all excluding goal difference. very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7 Was bound to make one mistake! have changed it which essentially means that if sunderland lose to chelsea and city away in their next 2 games we have to get 1 point on them, so if they beat cardiff, realistically neither will be able to catch us. And therefore, given norwich's run in, if sunderland beat cardiff at home we will 99% stay up IMO Messi, you're good, but you can't hit a ball like ambrose
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lil j-eagle

little bookham 16 Apr 14 1.16pm

Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 1.05pm

Quote lil j-eagle at 16 Apr 2014 1.02pm

Quote ambrose7 at 16 Apr 2014 12.15pm

We need to gain/the opposition have to lose the chance to get:

6 on Fulham
7 on Cardiff
7 on Sunderland
8 on Norwich
9 on Swansea
12 on West Brom
13 on Villa

As soon as three of those teams are out of reach we're safe.

So for example if we were to win tonight, we'd need 3 points to 'vanish' to be safe from Fulham, so them losing at the weekend would mean we're guaranteed to be above them.

Therefore, if we were to lose tonight, the first time we have a realistic chance of being safe is between the City/Liverpool games. Importantly, Cardiff and Sunderland still have to play each other so one of those teams really is currently on 4, as both cannot win.

Those numbers are all excluding goal difference.

very good way of looking at it, but i think (if i understand the logic correctly) that we need to get 5 points over cardiff not 7

Was bound to make one mistake! have changed it

which essentially means that if sunderland lose to chelsea and city away in their next 2 games we have to get 1 point on them, so if they beat cardiff, realistically neither will be able to catch us. And therefore, given norwich's run in, if sunderland beat cardiff at home we will 99% stay up IMO

Messi, you're good, but you can't hit a ball like ambrose

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tonypeers5 Wallington 16 Apr 14 1.42pm
I think I heard that stats say that having beaten Aston Villa we are 98% likely to stay up It's Red and Blue that unites us
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tonypeers5

Wallington 16 Apr 14 1.42pm