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Palace's Survival Magic Number
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 kenbarr  Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 06 Apr 14 11.25am |
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As we go into the final phase of the season, Palace have survuval in sight. Given that Sunderland have the most points available to them of the sides in the bottom 3 (24 possible points based on 8 games left to play), any combination of Palace points gained and Sunderland points dropped adding up to 16 will ensure Palace's survival. Let the calculations begin.
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Catfish  Burgess Hill 06 Apr 14 11.40am |
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Even being generous, I think Sunderland will get a max of 11 points takng them to 36. If they do get that they will probably stay up . I thnk a win against villa would be enough.
Yes, I am an agent of Satan but my duties are largely ceremonial |
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| CPFC_1905 06 Apr 14 11.46am |
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I would like to see our safety near guaranteed before we play City
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| jamiemartin721 Reading 06 Apr 14 1.15pm |
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With a number of teams between us and Fulham now, we probably need 1 point to have a good chance of staying up, 3 more should do it, and six more absolutely will be enough. We might even be safe now. Barring a massive shift probably only Fulham and Sunderland have a decent chance of getting out of trouble. Cardiff are gone they've got fewer games and to many real stinkers, and I think Norwich will join them. If we beat Villa on Saturday, its all about where we finish, rather than if we stay up.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
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| kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 07 Apr 14 6.16am |
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Remember, I'm talking about mathematical safety. Let's say we win our next match and Sunderland loses. The magic number is reduced by 6.
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| kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 08 Apr 14 3.47am |
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With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13.
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thebob  Tatebayashi (from Croydon) 08 Apr 14 6.55am |
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Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate.
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| kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 08 Apr 14 9.10pm |
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Quote thebob at 08 Apr 2014 6.55am
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate. The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.
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| Catfish Burgess Hill 08 Apr 14 9.12pm |
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Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm
Quote thebob at 08 Apr 2014 6.55am
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate. The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.
Yes, I am an agent of Satan but my duties are largely ceremonial |
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collier row eagle  romford essex via another galaxy 08 Apr 14 9.37pm |
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Quote Catfish at 08 Apr 2014 9.12pm
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm
Quote thebob at 08 Apr 2014 6.55am
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate. The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.
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| cornwalls palace Torpoint 08 Apr 14 9.49pm |
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Quote Catfish at 08 Apr 2014 9.12pm
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm
Quote thebob at 08 Apr 2014 6.55am
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate. The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.
.......has our coach driver done a Poo'yet, without thinking about Gus! |
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| kenbarr Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 08 Apr 14 10.08pm |
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Quote cornwalls palace at 08 Apr 2014 9.49pm
Quote Catfish at 08 Apr 2014 9.12pm
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm
Quote thebob at 08 Apr 2014 6.55am
Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 3.47am
With Sunderland losing 5-1, the survival magic number drops to 13. I don't know how you work that out, I have the mathematical number as 10 pts considering the teams below us that need to play each other. But to need all 10pts there would have to be some amazing scores below us. After we play Wet Spam everything will be much easier to calculate. The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.
It really is something that we do on this side of the pond with baseball, since it is such a long season (162 games from March/April to September with the postseason playoffs and World Series in October). I've done it before with Palace in years when they either were going for promotion or trying to stave of relegation, which seems to be almost every season. It helps me keep my sanity when all others are losing theirs!
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