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Ukraine Situation - Should We Be Worried?

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Stirlingsays Flag 24 Jul 24 12.27pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

Zelenski finally making noises about negotiations with russia and peace knowing full well the gravy train will end soon when trump gets into the white house.

I think it's more than that.

Mobilisations and fleeing has meant that the economy is suffering from a lack of manpower. The economy has more job openings than applications.

The lack of realistic manpower means that from the Ukraine perspective an effective battlefield will continual to decline...and anyone actually following the battlefield knows they have been losing ground all year, and considerable amounts of it recently.....In sheer manpower terms Ukraine know that there is a timer on this war if they are going to be able to function as a state afterwards.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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silvertop Flag Portishead 24 Jul 24 1.20pm Send a Private Message to silvertop Add silvertop as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

What you see here is a complete failure to deal with reality.

It's similar to their posts on this topic all the way through the thread. If you go back and read, it shows exactly why the opportunities to end this war failed and why the situation now is far worse and with hundreds of thousands of dead in the ground....lots of them the young men of Ukraine needed to rebuild the country now gone. 15 million Ukrainians are said to have left Ukraine for other countries. It's unlikely the lion's share will ever come back.

You will notice that none of the points deal with the factual reality and that's because essentially they don't know what they are talking about. It's just surface level waffle. It's very Boris Johnson.

Let's deal with this word, 'appeasement'. It's become a word justified for continuing a war, we could use before any negotiation that isn't total victory. It's ridiculous.

Did we 'appease' the IRA?
Did we 'appease' the Taliban by abandoning Afghanistan?
Did we 'appease' insurgency groups by abandoning Iraq?
Did we 'appease' Viet Cong by abandoning Vietnam?
Did we 'appease' Stalin by not going to war over his control of Poland and Hungary and other eastern european states?

Show that to anyone who says 'appeasement' but who isn't willing to fight in a trench themselves.

All of a sudden people quickly find other ways of describing the situation and that's because it's an opinion. In the real world we have to deal in facts and what is possible. People who bet the farm because of 'dislikes' should not be in power.

No, you won't find this word used because reality overcomes the pointlessness of using words like 'appeasement'.

It's the lack of reality that annoys me. Ok, let's look back at what it would take Ukraine to beat Russia. It doesn't have the population numbers...I was saying this at the start. If you have a situation where both countries are willing to go to the wire Ukraine loses everytime....which is precisely what is happening.
Russia also has the far larger military machine.

If you want to beat Russia you have to send Nato troops and escalate to WW3. It's possible Russia can be beaten in Ukraine but its more likely we all die. It all comes down to the blood cost states are willing to give.

It really isn't that complicated.

The only way you could have convinced Russia to stop would have been by destroying its economy and that was always unrealistic given how important its massive resources are. They just redirected, meaning we get much more expensive energy long term.

The definition of stupid if you ask me.

The US state department had no business in Ukraine trying to turn that country from a neutral to anti Russian. The US wouldn't have accepted the same thing being done to them as history shows. Putin warned about this back in 2008 but was ignored....that by the way is the answer to this claim that Putin's here for continual war.

The Biden family and other movers at that time need investigation as to what went on. The massive cost to the west falls into the hundreds of billions because of these elites.


Edited by Stirlingsays (21 Jul 2024 7.28am)

Sorry to pick up on this so late. I have been avoiding the political stuff for a bit.

You present a binary choice. Ukraine v Russia or Ukraine + NATO v Russia.

There is a third choice (and I am advocating none of them). Ukraine (+ NATO) v Russia. That is NATO fighting Russia by proxy. That is, precisely where we are now.

NATO seems to think this is winnable without committing any NATO lives and without starting WWIII.

The problem I see is that, while Russia's expansionism needs to be checked, has anyone properly costed the possible reaction of Russia if they are perceived to have lost (whatever metric is applied to that determination?), especially by their own people?

As an aside, reading the recent posts on here there is a certain HOL paradox. I have found that I agree with the bulk of both yours and Wisbech's posts, yet you remain locked in passionate disagreement?

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 24 Jul 24 1.37pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by silvertop

Sorry to pick up on this so late. I have been avoiding the political stuff for a bit.

You present a binary choice. Ukraine v Russia or Ukraine + NATO v Russia.

There is a third choice (and I am advocating none of them). Ukraine (+ NATO) v Russia. That is NATO fighting Russia by proxy. That is, precisely where we are now.

NATO seems to think this is winnable without committing any NATO lives and without starting WWIII.

The problem I see is that, while Russia's expansionism needs to be checked, has anyone properly costed the possible reaction of Russia if they are perceived to have lost (whatever metric is applied to that determination?), especially by their own people?

As an aside, reading the recent posts on here there is a certain HOL paradox. I have found that I agree with the bulk of both yours and Wisbech's posts, yet you remain locked in passionate disagreement?

In my view the big problem has been the leadership of Nato. They have essentially guaranteed Ukraine into the alliance. That means Russia would have to be stupid to leave Ukraine as a functioning anti Russian state on its border.

Of course these could be the usual worthless lies of here today, gone tomorrow, politicians...the useless Stollenberg soon to be leaving.

However on the face of it, as things currently stand, positions are set in sand and the war continues with no realistic good outcome for Ukraine.

It's been so frigging stupid.

It's not complicated, Europe needs Russia's resources and in return our military stays out of their border countries.

But hey, America fear a German/Russian alliance more than anything. Better for them that we have to buy off them.....stupidly to the extent that they create a Russian/China alliance.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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Ouzo Dan Flag Behind you 25 Jul 24 6.50am Send a Private Message to Ouzo Dan Add Ouzo Dan as a friend

Ukraine shut off the Russian oil supply to Slovakia & Hungary this morning.

Lashing out against your allies is a pretty clear sign it's not going well for Ukraine.
It will likely force Slovakia to buy oil off the US at overpriced rates.

 


The mountains are calling & I must go.

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Stirlingsays Flag 25 Jul 24 9.57am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by Ouzo Dan

Ukraine shut off the Russian oil supply to Slovakia & Hungary this morning.

Lashing out against your allies is a pretty clear sign it's not going well for Ukraine.
It will likely force Slovakia to buy oil off the US at overpriced rates.

Curious behaviour when you find out that Ukraine gets about forty percent of its collective electricity from those two countries.

Can only think they have been told to do it.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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eaglesdare Flag 16 Aug 24 11.55am Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

[Link]

You were a Putin supporter or conspiracy theorist if you said this a while back.

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 16 Aug 24 12.07pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

[Link]

You were a Putin supporter or conspiracy theorist if you said this a while back.

Yep, it's remarkable how often conspiracy theorists end up being right.

Epstein didn't kill himself....I thought I'd throw that in for no apparent related reason.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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eaglesdare Flag 16 Aug 24 12.15pm Send a Private Message to eaglesdare Add eaglesdare as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Yep, it's remarkable how often conspiracy theorists end up being right.

Epstein didn't kill himself....I thought I'd throw that in for no apparent related reason.

Yes I have pretty much run out of conspiracy theories now. They keep being proven right.

 

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Stirlingsays Flag 16 Aug 24 12.21pm Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Originally posted by eaglesdare

Yes I have pretty much run out of conspiracy theories now. They keep being proven right.

The fact that state agencies keep state secrets essentially makes conspiracies factual. It becomes more the case of which official narratives you believe in rather than which ones you don't.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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