not Convinced about Expected goals - a rather meaningless stat.

It'd be interesting to see what the table would look like if a league table was calculated where the points were allocated on xG and not Actual goals, I think it'd probably show just how unreliable it is..

i.e.
Palace 1 West Ham 1
the xG stats Show
Palace 3.16 West ham 0.73
so we'd get The 3 points

work that out for every game this season, then see what the League table looks like !

"It was a Team effort, I guess it took all players working together to lose this one"

Well yes, and no. You kind of have to accept that statistically you're basing your probability factors on the variables that are controllable. Of course you might include effectors based on the likelihood of certain factors, such as the first team to score is the most likely to be the second team to score, and the team that scores 2 in x number of cases will go onto win the game.

So you could include a co-efficient based on a teams likelihood to park the bus, based on the quality of their opposition.

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