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Theoretical Safety Target
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 Lyons550  Shirley 13 Apr 17 5.54pm |
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Originally posted by YT
Nice try, Lyons-ey. I 'got it' straight away, but it seems maybe others didn't! It does amaze me how a) people can't read a simple graph and b) can't comprehend a title of a thread....still it's made me chuckle
The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World |
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| lefty27 ipswich 13 Apr 17 6.01pm |
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At the end of the day we are Palace fans, history tells us that anything is possible. At 3-0 on Monday there was still a little part of me telling me I'd take a point!
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| peterg Anerley 13 Apr 17 6.31pm |
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Swansea have taken 4 points from their last six matches. Their fans reckon the team is demoralised, unlike Hull and us - they commented during the Arsenal match how determined we were. Everything is looking good for Swansea to go down....
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| johnmcormick8 Brundish 13 Apr 17 6.33pm |
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Folks, at least we have this to mull over rather than the demise of our team/club. So if we get 47 pts I will smiling from now until the start of next season. When the fun starts all over again.
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| YT Oxford 13 Apr 17 7.33pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
It does amaze me how a) people can't read a simple graph and b) can't comprehend a title of a thread....still it's made me chuckle I expect it's the fault of the Tories...
Palace since 19 August 1972. Palace 1 (Tony Taylor) Liverpool 1 (Emlyn Hughes) |
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| Goldfiinger Just down the road 13 Apr 17 10.47pm |
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Originally posted by Lyons550
Ok, following on from having produced the same thing last season attached is a graph of what we need to achieve as things stand. Assuming that the club in 18th wins all their remaining games we need another 13points....or 4 wins and a draw from our last 7 games.
Edited by Lyons550 (13 Apr 2017 2.41pm) But surely that means the 18th placed team will be taking points off other clubs around us and potentially one of them will have a lower possible total. I.e. 18,17 and 16 can't all win all of there remaining games can they?
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Ketteridge  Brighton 14 Apr 17 8.34am |
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Like Allardyce I'll get my defence organised first, I adapted this from a probability calculator I did for work. I used the calculator to model the likely result for Palace and Swansea. It's based on using ratings from Statto.com which do match quiet well well with bookies odds and likely outcomes and general trends rather than specifics teams. The most likely points out come is Swansea finish on 35pts (14% chance) but there is an almost evens chance that they don't make more than 34 pts.The most likely points total for Palace is 41 or 42pts (both 13%). Our chances of not making 35pts is something like 1 in 1000. Overall there is about 4 pts chance of Swansea getting more points than us.
One supporter of hacking argued that without it "you will do away with the courage and pluck of the game, and I will be bound to bring over a lot of Frenchmen who would beat you with a week's practice -Blackheath secretary at first meeting of the F.A |
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Attachment: chateauferret  14 Apr 17 10.17am |
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Of course normally you would not worry about a 1 in 100 chance. But when you have endured Oldham and all the other improbable relegation situations we have been in there will be those who regard a 1 in 1000 chance of Palace getting f***ed over as a distinct possibility. I think the Swansea fans are calling it about right. They will soon be goosed.
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| Lyons550 Shirley 14 Apr 17 12.44pm |
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Originally posted by Goldfiinger
But surely that means the 18th placed team will be taking points off other clubs around us and potentially one of them will have a lower possible total. I.e. 18,17 and 16 can't all win all of there remaining games can they? Of course...cleaely the target will change from game to game..and like last season ill update accordingly
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| Ketteridge Brighton 14 Apr 17 9.31pm |
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Originally posted by chateauferret
Of course normally you would not worry about a 1 in 100 chance. But when you have endured Oldham and all the other improbable relegation situations we have been in there will be those who regard a 1 in 1000 chance of Palace getting f***ed over as a distinct possibility. I think the Swansea fans are calling it about right. They will soon be goosed. I avoided looking at Oldham to see what the chances were they would win their last three games for that reason.
One supporter of hacking argued that without it "you will do away with the courage and pluck of the game, and I will be bound to bring over a lot of Frenchmen who would beat you with a week's practice -Blackheath secretary at first meeting of the F.A |
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| HeathMan Purley 14 Apr 17 11.08pm |
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I am happier looking at our last six games as a template for next season. We have had five wins from six matches. We play 38 matches (six sets of six and two extra games). Six fifteens is 90 points - I wonder if Sam is selling that vision to our squad (none of whom would wish to leave assuming he succeeds). Currently Chelsea and Spurs (seven wins = 21) could reach 96 and 89 respectively. I am sure that we would all settle for 90 next season. COYP
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aquickgame2  Beni = summer,Caribbean = winter 15 Apr 17 7.28am |
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Originally posted by lefty27
At the end of the day we are Palace fans, history tells us that anything is possible. At 3-0 on Monday there was still a little part of me telling me I'd take a point!
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