This issue regarding the North Koreans actually a real nightmare for the Chinese.

The modern day Chinese government and its general populace view the DPRK as a complete and utter liability. First it keeps picking fights with one of China's most important investors (South Korea), secondly they keep letting off nuclear weapons close to Chinese cities and thirdly they require daily Chinese humanitarian assistance which is nothing but a drain on the Chinese.

So why don't the Chinese simply let the North Korean's collapse? Two main reasons. China spend a considerable amount of time, energy and manpower keeping the DPRK alive back in the Korean War losing hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of men. Although most veterans of that war have now died off, plenty still remain. If China were to let the DPRK collapse through the denial of aid it would struggle to justify the loss of huge numbers of its troops in the first place. Kind of like is the UK ceded the Falklands to Argentina while we still have Falklands veterans alive.

Give it 20 years for the last veterans to go to better place and perhaps this way of thinking will begin to subside.

Secondly China is very conscious of strategic disadvantages. China feels very much 'boxed in' by foriegn powers. It has Russia to the North, US troops to the East (South Korea & Japan) and US sponsored countries to its South & West (Afganistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Guam etc). As China grows it is now trying to flex its muscles to try and break free of the US and Russian box that surrounds it. Seeing as the South Korean military is still technically under the command of the USA, China would be very wary of Korean unification under a South Korean regime as it would mean directly having US troops on its borders.

The situation in North Korea doesn't have to end in war, not will it probably. It will end when North Korea's 'usefulness' as political gap between China and South Korea sinks below the level of annoyance it is causing the Chinese government. For that to happen though there needs to be a total re-think in the way we, the West, approach China regarding issues like the 钓鱼鸟 (Daio yu Islands) with Japan and China's island building in the South China Sea.

No, its not stupid, risky - yes, stupid no!

As I explained a previous post, Both Korea's have a strategically strong position as a victim, but a very weak one as an aggressor. The Korean DMZ is basically a 3 mile wide hell hold of barbed wire, booby traps and mines. It would be nothing short of a tactical nightmare to attack through - thus favouring the defender. Both Korea's have a very simple plan, lure the other Korea into making the first blow then retaliate with bone crushing force.

Since North Korea detonated another nuclear device its power has shifted. While it almost certainly wields more physical power having nuclear weapons and one of the worlds largest militaries, its links with China begin to erode with each nuclear test. If South Korea (and the USA) can drive a wedge between the North and China, that might be enough to make the latter abandon its ally. A North Korea aggression followed up by a decisive counter attack from the South might be enough to make China think twice before rushing to defend its 'communist' ally paving the way for a UN initiative to polish off the North once and for all. The Chinese hate being dragged into issues not of their own making (for general reference).

Now here comes the risky part, if the South chooses to draw the North into a 'border war' as such, it will almost certainly come at the cost of civilian lives. The North currently has the ability to launch crude but effective artillery attacks on the Southern capital (Seoul). While South Korean's are well rehearsed for such an event, it would undoubtedly cause civilian casualties which might not be acceptable to the South Korean people (and its free press) depending on their effectiveness.

A best case scenario for the South is that is antagonises the North into a poorly planned and rash attack on the South, perhaps shelling its 'propaganda broadcast speakers'. This allows the South to 'defend' itself by returning fire with heavy weapons and engaging the North Korean Airforce / Navy with significantly better technology, decisively defeating both and making it hard for the North Korean propaganda machine to claim a victory. The international embarrassment might be enough for the Chinese to write them off as a strategic ally while the domestic fallout might allow the North Korean military brass to topple the Kim leadership.

The risky part of this plan is that the North fight better than expected (which is very possible), they inflict high civilian casualties on the South causing the general populace to question why this passive aggressive stance was adopted to start with with and its economic confidence is smashed due to its volatile relationship with the North. China then benefits from the shift of investment away from South Korea towards a more stable market.

That might be true, but the NK Army have basic artillery which is within range of Seoul. I'm not saying it would be in anyway skilled but the North definitely has the ability to inflict plenty of civilian casualties on the South. The question is how well would the North be able to hold the line agains't a US / SK counter strike i.e. with heavy bombers / cruise missiles etc.

Are you refering to Nick Griffin, EDL, or UKIP none of which has expressed a interest in punishing kids.

If the extreme left had there way known terrorists would be allowed to walk the streets of britain, freefrom the threat of deportation,and claim government handouts, whilst at the same time trying to prosicute war veterans who served their country on jumped up war crime charges.........oh wait a minute

Edited by dannyh (12 Jan 2016 12.07pm)

"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

If the right wing knicker wetters had their way, everyone who looked funny or dodgy would be in prison or deported and the poor would be staving, whilst innocent people would be a fair price to pay for killing a suspect, and the law would only apply to people based on their general feeling about the crime and victim.

They'd be about six white people left in the UK, sitting looking at one another, trying to work out how to prove the others are planning to ruin their country.

Know terrorists should be charged and arrested, esp given its almost impossible not to convict someone of conspiracy to commit terrorism, benefits should go to those who are eligible to claim them and the law should apply to everyone, even those who have performed public or military service and those suspected of terrorism.

"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
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