I have posted this on the BBS:

[Link]

but I know that some of you would sooner visit North Stand Chat than the BBS, so as this may be of interest to the BBSphobes, here it is in a thread of its own here in the wonderful HoL:

I really do not want to tempt fate by posting this, but statistician Simon Gleave and professional sports data analyst (who many of you will remember as 'Shaggy' from e-goals days) has pointed out that his friend and colleague Mark Taylor has updated his blog today. You can read it here:

[Link]

This is what Shaggy wrote to me this morning:

"OK, time for the Monday morning update. I have now seen three different models which all estimate Palace's chances of relegation at 2% so I'm happy to go with that as the truth despite not yet seeing the Euro Club Index's assessment.

Mark Taylor - one of the best stat guys out there - has posted his update which can be summarised as follows:

If Palace take just 1 point from their last 6, they have more than 80% chance of survival. 2 points takes it over 90%, 3 to near certainty, 4 to certainty.

Most likely points total for Palace is 38 and will probably fall somewhere between 37 and 41."

Betfair's odds on Palace being relegated are a far from generous 12-1. According to Shaggy (and Mark Taylor), the real odds today are closer to 50 - 1.

Mind you - when Palace were 8 points clear of Oldham, with 3 games to play, the odds I suspect would have been far longer, so I am not relaxing just yet.

Edited by James (07 Apr 2014 11.27am)

Apology accepted.

I must admit before our last two games I would have said 4 points from them would probably be enough, but six points later I still want more to be sure. Neutrals seem to think we have done enough but the majority of Palace fans have been bitten so many times before and are taking nothing for granted. I hope we can get 3 points on Saturday (although I think Villa will be tougher than a lot are saying) and then I will be confident!! Great and interesting article though being a fan of stats myself!