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Originally posted by victor43
If you two are correct (that the bookies odds are only based on level of betting once the season has started), which I don't believe is true, then how about the estimations by 538 here: [Link] If you are so certain your model is better than this or the bookies - as someone said, you could earn a fortune betting against us. If you click your link, then check how they predicted last weekends results, they got them virtually all wrong. I wouldn’t put much store in what they predict.
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The day our fate is decided this season with us remaining in the Premier, will be cause for celebration.
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Originally posted by Willo
I talked about one specific incident, which was on Saturday morning, in conversation with a Brighton supporter. In terms of stats one can use them to state what has actually happened (IE no goals in the last 3 games etc) but also use them for reasons of prognostication and interpret them how one sees fit. One can talk about not playing teams in the "Top six" etc etc but as Hodgson rightly explained after we played Liverpool, one shouldn't assume that the upcoming 6 games will be easier than the previous 6 games. I appreciate this is a very negative view but all I am doing is expressing what I genuinely believe.Hopefully my analysis is awry and I am totally wrong.
Edited by Willo (09 Apr 2018 11.42am)
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Originally posted by spartakev2
Goodness grief - how long have you got ? Looked at so many things and it would take a month of sundays to go into such detail.Probably bore all and sundry.In actual fact if you read through my posts you will see my line of thinking. Hopefully my analysis proves totally wrong and if so I will be delighted.
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Originally posted by Painter
The day our fate is decided this season with us remaining in the Premier, will be cause for celebration. And I have been accused of posting "Tripe".
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At this stage last season things were not looking too good and, so on the basis that all my bets go down, I took the insurance of wagering a tenner that we would be relegated. The trick worked, we weren't. This season we are again in peril and so I have again put a tenner on us going down. This despite the fact we have no recognised goal scorer (Benteke doesn't count), we don't know how to 'park the bus' and our manager is strangely averse to making substitutions. We should all now sleep comfortably in our beds, including our dear friend Willo, bless him.
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Originally posted by Willo
I have been convinced for a while. And how have I been "Discredited" ? All I have done is to give my opinion as to our prospects.
Trolley go home.
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I haven't got into debating with willo because I see him as a "the glass is half empty instead of the glass is half full" kinda man, a worrier, a pessimist. I am sorry Willo you assessment of the fact we will be relegated is based on studying our form, inability to score, inability to defend etc, etc. but have you studied the form of the teams around us. Do you know that Huddersfield have scored only once in 8 league games and the only goal they scored was from a poor back pass. Did you know that the only team that Stoke have actually beaten in the last 16 games is Huddersfield. Did you know that Huddersfield's last three games are away to City, Chelsea and home to Arsenal. Did you know that that Southampton has a six pointer against Swansea which if the lose and we win would put us 7 points above them or two points above Swansea. Did you know that Brighton's last five fixtures after us are against, Tottenham, Burnley, Man City, Man United, and Liverpool and they may not get another point. Bookies use all these factors when analysing odds. My own feeling is that based on current form WBA, Stoke and Huddersfield are the three sides going down
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As long as wilf sees thru the end of the campaigne, we will stay up.
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Originally posted by Willo
Goodness grief - how long have you got ? Looked at so many things and it would take a month of sundays to go into such detail.Probably bore all and sundry.In actual fact if you read through my posts you will see my line of thinking. Hopefully my analysis proves totally wrong and if so I will be delighted.
Your line of thinking seems to be the form book will go out of the window and we'll lose every game and teams below us will start beating top 6 sides. No analysis just being irritating and irrational.
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Originally posted by ger20
I haven't got into debating with willo because I see him as a "the glass is half empty instead of the glass is half full" kinda man, a worrier, a pessimist. I am sorry Willo you assessment of the fact we will be relegated is based on studying our form, inability to score, inability to defend etc, etc. but have you studied the form of the teams around us. Do you know that Huddersfield have scored only once in 8 league games and the only goal they scored was from a poor back pass. Did you know that the only team that Stoke have actually beaten in the last 16 games is Huddersfield. Did you know that Huddersfield's last three games are away to City, Chelsea and home to Arsenal. Did you know that that Southampton has a six pointer against Swansea which if the lose and we win would put us 7 points above them or two points above Swansea. Did you know that Brighton's last five fixtures after us are against, Tottenham, Burnley, Man City, Man United, and Liverpool and they may not get another point. Bookies use all these factors when analysing odds. My own feeling is that based on current form WBA, Stoke and Huddersfield are the three sides going down Willo ignored my point about our form against the sides in the bottom half of the table (no losses since September) so he's unlikely to have actually taken any of the points you make into account.
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Originally posted by CambridgeEagle
Willo ignored my point about our form against the sides in the bottom half of the table (no losses since September) so he's unlikely to have actually taken any of the points you make into account. Makes you wonder what stats he used in his thorough analysis that sees us relegated. ...
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