I find it mildly amusing that those who were self proclaimed experts on covid matters appear to be the same protagonists who are now expert in the field of war. Is there literally no end to the stream of talent we have on here?

That's because both are "evil and irrational"! It's especially obvious now with Putin. We can keep Trump in the long grass for the moment, even though he praised Putin a day or so ago.

I listened earlier to a former senior UK general and Nato commander speaking on Radio 4. I regret I didn't catch his name, but he was clearly knowledgeable and very measured in his analysis. What he said gave me a tiny pin prick of hope.

He cannot understand Putin's strategy and said it makes no military sense at all, and seems totally irrational. This is because as he is attacking on so many fronts the objective cannot be to just take the russian-speaking regions into Russian control. It must be to take the whole country, and then install a puppet government loyal to Moscow.

This fits with Putin's view of Ukraine as a non-state. His vision going right back to the revolution with his view being that the only state which emerged was Russia. Everything he has said in recent years about Ukraine matches that perception.

The general's view is that this personal standpoint of Putin is clouding his judgement and is leading to irrational decisions. Whilst 200,000 heavily armed troops will certainly achieve their objective and a puppet government installed, that's when Putin's problems will begin. Ukraine is not Belarus. Its people are fiercely patriotic and will not accept subjugation. It will be very rough, with terrible treatment, torture and rape included, no doubt, but they will go on resisting. Enlisted troops are not trained to administer a resisting, occupied country. It will demand a lot of Russia's resources that they can ill afford, and lead to discontent at home.

This isn't my analysis. It's that of the general I was listening too.

His conclusions were just as the Russian war in Afghanistan contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union, so this war in Ukraine could, ultimately, become the point at which the tide turns on Putin. His view being that this makes no sense militarily and is the irrational act of a man obsessed by his own beliefs, which aren't shared by many others in Russia.

His own military commanders are likely to see that too. Will they allow themselves to be used like this for long?

These were interesting new thoughts.

Me & my girlfriend have agreed to take in a Ukrainian family, we have the room on our guest floor so decided to try and do what we can, all we have asked is they contribute towards the Gas/Electric, we should know a bit more in the next couple of days, genuinely have no interest taking in men running away though.

If this escalates I have a mate in rural France who said she will put my family up but I am thinking of staying behind & fighting, we're nowhere near that situation & I remain convinced this stops east of the Dnieper but its the kind of stuff floating around in the back of my mind.

Edited by Ouzo Dan (25 Feb 2022 8.44pm)

I think we all have our fingers crossed Dan.