theres stuff coming our now about male Ukrainians up to 60 yrs old being forced to fight, not being allowed to leave into Hungary...president saying anyone who wants a rifle can have one...cant see this lasting long, will have a russian friendly government soon.

Sometimes I set out for Ludlow
Sometimes I end up in Chepstow

Despite the perception/reality of my 'Pro' Putin views, I must admit that I do feel a deal of sympathy with Ukraine. For the last 20 years or so the West (and primarily the US) have used it to prod and poke at Russia in a variety of ways but when the 'Bear' finally decides to take a big chunk out of it, the West is nothing other than the usual BS of lighting up buildings and virtue signalling.

But still the oil and gas flows.

A lesson there. And also potentially defining moment for Europe as a political entity. Russia is its neighbour/cousin. A shared history, culture, loss, and so much more. Yet the US seems intent on ensuring that it feels hemmed in. Trapped. Literally trying to clamp down on its ability to freely trade with who it wants.

Why does Europe tolerate this?

I appreciate that we have all effectively taken sides and that the chances of any kind of civil discourse are low (with me as guilty as anybody on that) but why on earth should Russia not be allowed to pipe its gas to who it wants?

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

That's because both are "evil and irrational"! It's especially obvious now with Putin. We can keep Trump in the long grass for the moment, even though he praised Putin a day or so ago.

I listened earlier to a former senior UK general and Nato commander speaking on Radio 4. I regret I didn't catch his name, but he was clearly knowledgeable and very measured in his analysis. What he said gave me a tiny pin prick of hope.

He cannot understand Putin's strategy and said it makes no military sense at all, and seems totally irrational. This is because as he is attacking on so many fronts the objective cannot be to just take the russian-speaking regions into Russian control. It must be to take the whole country, and then install a puppet government loyal to Moscow.

This fits with Putin's view of Ukraine as a non-state. His vision going right back to the revolution with his view being that the only state which emerged was Russia. Everything he has said in recent years about Ukraine matches that perception.

The general's view is that this personal standpoint of Putin is clouding his judgement and is leading to irrational decisions. Whilst 200,000 heavily armed troops will certainly achieve their objective and a puppet government installed, that's when Putin's problems will begin. Ukraine is not Belarus. Its people are fiercely patriotic and will not accept subjugation. It will be very rough, with terrible treatment, torture and rape included, no doubt, but they will go on resisting. Enlisted troops are not trained to administer a resisting, occupied country. It will demand a lot of Russia's resources that they can ill afford, and lead to discontent at home.

This isn't my analysis. It's that of the general I was listening too.

His conclusions were just as the Russian war in Afghanistan contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union, so this war in Ukraine could, ultimately, become the point at which the tide turns on Putin. His view being that this makes no sense militarily and is the irrational act of a man obsessed by his own beliefs, which aren't shared by many others in Russia.

His own military commanders are likely to see that too. Will they allow themselves to be used like this for long?

These were interesting new thoughts.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

For someone so against religion you certainly like its concepts and language.

I think it's too early to be certain of the extent of Putin's plans but obviously there are variations.

Personally I don't see Putin looking to take over all of the Ukraine for precisely the reasons given. I see him taking over Eastern Ukraine where his support is largest. I could of course be wrong and as the real fighting is happening we should know soon enough.

Edited by Stirlingsays (25 Feb 2022 7.36pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

I was unconvinced by Lavrov on RT today, and Putins macho meanness.

Of course there are nazis on the eastern border and a nasty little Balkans type reckoning for several years.

But that does not justify what they are doing to ordinary ukrainians, their friends, probably are totally unaware of such things.

It doesn't justify what they are actually doing, it is an excuse, a cover.

I think they have lost this, the question is what can anyone do about it.

Mr and Mrs Ukrainian like any war, will be innocent victims, when will we ever learn.

I doubt that you will ever learn, judging by the views you support on most topics.