Are we on a path to disaster ?

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Are we on a path to disaster ?

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cryrst The garden of England 27 Dec 19 10.14am
Originally posted by mattteo Disaster seems avoided or very much avoidable, as there are now 8 points clear of first relegation position (Aston Villa with 18 ). This is what should be counted, not that we're 3 points away from Europa League position. Cause let's face it- the attack is very poor and with only bang-average over a full year Ayew and out of form Zaha, team has the worst goalscoring record out of Top 15 teams. And many teams below will surely finish ahigher: Arsenal, Man United, Everton. Brighton is playing amazibgly well and deserved many more points (even though I know you all hate Brighton, their manager really did his job this season). So a 12-13 position at the end of the season will be golden for a team like Palace, with such a lack for goals. Edited by mattteo (26 Dec 2019 5.30pm) 'Deserve' doesnt really matter. Defend until the whistle and score before it blows. Then you get what you deserve.
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cryrst

The garden of England 27 Dec 19 10.14am

Originally posted by mattteo

Disaster seems avoided or very much avoidable, as there are now 8 points clear of first relegation position (Aston Villa with 18 ). This is what should be counted, not that we're 3 points away from Europa League position. Cause let's face it- the attack is very poor and with only bang-average over a full year Ayew and out of form Zaha, team has the worst goalscoring record out of Top 15 teams.

And many teams below will surely finish ahigher: Arsenal, Man United, Everton. Brighton is playing amazibgly well and deserved many more points (even though I know you all hate Brighton, their manager really did his job this season).

So a 12-13 position at the end of the season will be golden for a team like Palace, with such a lack for goals.

Edited by mattteo (26 Dec 2019 5.30pm)

'Deserve' doesnt really matter.
Defend until the whistle and score before it blows.
Then you get what you deserve.

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bexleydave Barnehurst 27 Dec 19 10.20am
Originally posted by mattteo Am i required to s* on Brighton for no reason to be one of you??? I'm not sure what you meant there.... I like what Graham Potter did with a team which was probably the worst which avoided relegation relegation last year. They were piss poor. Now they're domination Tottenham away and Man United and pretty much 3 quarters of the Premier League teams they play against. No you're not required to dislike our rivals, but you rarely if ever have anything positive to say about Palace and you talk about Palace in the third person e.g. "you" rather than "us" which suggests you're not a Palace fan. This is Palace Talk on a Palace fans website and excessive (and in my opinion premature) praise for a rival, particularly in light of your inability to say little or anything positive about us, is beginning to suggest that you may have a greater love for Seagulls than you do Eagles. There are the Away Fans and Football Talk forums here if you wish to have an in depth discussion about the wonders of Potterball, but please don't hijack this thread which is about Palace's fortunes. Bexley Dave Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ***** thing! "The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum)
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bexleydave

Barnehurst 27 Dec 19 10.20am

Originally posted by mattteo

Am i required to s*** on Brighton for no reason to be one of you???

I'm not sure what you meant there....

I like what Graham Potter did with a team which was probably the worst which avoided relegation relegation last year. They were piss poor. Now they're domination Tottenham away and Man United and pretty much 3 quarters of the Premier League teams they play against.

No you're not required to dislike our rivals, but you rarely if ever have anything positive to say about Palace and you talk about Palace in the third person e.g. "you" rather than "us" which suggests you're not a Palace fan.

This is Palace Talk on a Palace fans website and excessive (and in my opinion premature) praise for a rival, particularly in light of your inability to say little or anything positive about us, is beginning to suggest that you may have a greater love for Seagulls than you do Eagles.

There are the Away Fans and Football Talk forums here if you wish to have an in depth discussion about the wonders of Potterball, but please don't hijack this thread which is about Palace's fortunes.

Bexley Dave

Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ******* thing!

"The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum)

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EddieMac 27 Dec 19 10.20am
Originally posted by cryrst 'Deserve' doesnt really matter. Defend until the whistle and score before it blows. Then you get what you deserve. Exactly. You deserve what you get when that whistle is blown. Possession stats and shots on goal mean nothing. The final score is all that matters.
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EddieMac

27 Dec 19 10.20am

Originally posted by cryrst

'Deserve' doesnt really matter.
Defend until the whistle and score before it blows.
Then you get what you deserve.

Exactly. You deserve what you get when that whistle is blown. Possession stats and shots on goal mean nothing. The final score is all that matters.

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rollercoaster Cornwall 27 Dec 19 12.05pm
Back to topic: Even the most pessimistic (me) can see that we have a good chance of staying up this year. However, other teams are getting stronger year after year and we appear to have peaked a couple of years ago and are getting a weaker and older squad year after year. The recruitment philiosophy of the club looks very similar to what we saw at Sunderland. Buying prem experienced older players with little or no re-sale value and hanging in there. They managed a 10 year run in the prem but when they fell they fell big-time. Unless the club wake up very quickly (might already be too late) we will do the same. If you think this wont happen tell me why? Happened to Sunderland and they have better infrastructure than we do and, I would assume, a lower wage expectation than a London based club like us.
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rollercoaster

Cornwall 27 Dec 19 12.05pm

Back to topic:
Even the most pessimistic (me) can see that we have a good chance of staying up this year.
However, other teams are getting stronger year after year and we appear to have peaked a couple of years ago and are getting a weaker and older squad year after year.
The recruitment philiosophy of the club looks very similar to what we saw at Sunderland. Buying prem experienced older players with little or no re-sale value and hanging in there. They managed a 10 year run in the prem but when they fell they fell big-time.

Unless the club wake up very quickly (might already be too late) we will do the same. If you think this wont happen tell me why? Happened to Sunderland and they have better infrastructure than we do and, I would assume, a lower wage expectation than a London based club like us.

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Ginger Pubic Wig Wickham de L'Ouest 27 Dec 19 12.35pm
Can we get a successful squad of Ayews, Guaitas, Meyers and Cahills? Ie players who may not be around forever and have high wages but low acquisition costs. And can we do so (a ) over many years and (b ) in a way that allows the club to be profitable? If we paid an average of 80k a week (experienced players on high wages with academy kids earning far less), our annual wage would be £104 million. I've also allowed some spending on youth player wages in that, but perhaps too little? What did we have in revenue last year? £150 million? It's a very simple, achievable business model to be honest. If such players can be found and if we can get a manager who's prepared to implement such an approach. If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.
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Ginger Pubic Wig

Wickham de L'Ouest 27 Dec 19 12.35pm

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Can we get a successful squad of Ayews, Guaitas, Meyers and Cahills?

Ie players who may not be around forever and have high wages but low acquisition costs.

And can we do so (a ) over many years and (b ) in a way that allows the club to be profitable?

If we paid an average of 80k a week (experienced players on high wages with academy kids earning far less), our annual wage would be £104 million. I've also allowed some spending on youth player wages in that, but perhaps too little?

What did we have in revenue last year? £150 million?

It's a very simple, achievable business model to be honest. If such players can be found and if we can get a manager who's prepared to implement such an approach.

If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.

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JohnB 27 Dec 19 1.12pm
Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig If we paid an average of 80k a week (experienced players on high wages with academy kids earning far less), our annual wage would be £104 million. I've also allowed some spending on youth player wages in that, but perhaps too little? Our problem is if you compare to other teams in the league, the value we are getting for money in wages is not good enough. We can afford to pay players £50-130k a week but we are giving good wages to players not worthy of them. McArthur earns more than Maddison or Ruben Neves Dann earns the same as Davinson Sanchez or double Joe Gomez Benteke is earning more than Gabriel Jesus. We are in a period where we have given players with no resale value good contracts and we can't afford to replace them but also can't afford to get them off the books to free up the wages as the replacement would cost transfer money plus wages. At some point we either have to invest heavily or we take lots of gambles on unproven players that cost less in both transfer fees and wages.
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JohnB

27 Dec 19 1.12pm

Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig

Our problem is if you compare to other teams in the league, the value we are getting for money in wages is not good enough. We can afford to pay players £50-130k a week but we are giving good wages to players not worthy of them.

McArthur earns more than Maddison or Ruben Neves
Dann earns the same as Davinson Sanchez or double Joe Gomez
Benteke is earning more than Gabriel Jesus.

We are in a period where we have given players with no resale value good contracts and we can't afford to replace them but also can't afford to get them off the books to free up the wages as the replacement would cost transfer money plus wages.

At some point we either have to invest heavily or we take lots of gambles on unproven players that cost less in both transfer fees and wages.

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Ginger Pubic Wig Wickham de L'Ouest 27 Dec 19 2.17pm
You are definitely right, JohnB but that's not entirely my point. My point is whether we can identify a viable business model that is profitable and sufficient for us to stay in the top tier. And whether this is it. If we buy a player for 15m, that is (however it's accounted for) 96k a week if we get them on a 3 year contract. If they're on 80k a week, that's 176k a week. To sign a player like that, they must be a first team starter. To get a Benteke or a Sakho you're basically looking at 250k a week in outlay, potentially with very little, if any, transfer market upside. Because if they under perform, who's going to pay them 120k-ish a week in wages? Whereas Meyer, Cahill, Guaita and Ayew may seem a bit uninspiring, but financially they are probably much better. Even if we never receive a fee for them. We look at some clubs and think they've been "ambitious". But maybe they've been unwise. I suppose it ties us to a high wage structure though if we prioritise low risk, low fee players because people come to learn what others earn. If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.
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Ginger Pubic Wig

Wickham de L'Ouest 27 Dec 19 2.17pm

You are definitely right, JohnB but that's not entirely my point. My point is whether we can identify a viable business model that is profitable and sufficient for us to stay in the top tier. And whether this is it.

If we buy a player for 15m, that is (however it's accounted for) 96k a week if we get them on a 3 year contract. If they're on 80k a week, that's 176k a week.

To sign a player like that, they must be a first team starter. To get a Benteke or a Sakho you're basically looking at 250k a week in outlay, potentially with very little, if any, transfer market upside. Because if they under perform, who's going to pay them 120k-ish a week in wages?

Whereas Meyer, Cahill, Guaita and Ayew may seem a bit uninspiring, but financially they are probably much better. Even if we never receive a fee for them.

We look at some clubs and think they've been "ambitious". But maybe they've been unwise.

I suppose it ties us to a high wage structure though if we prioritise low risk, low fee players because people come to learn what others earn.

If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.

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cantrbury eagle Canterbury 27 Dec 19 4.23pm
Originally posted by manoftaste This has been an interesting thread to read. Points I take from it are: (1) We are playing very unattractive football. In the end, football is about entertainment, and there's not been much of that this season; (2) We are punching above our weight, and for that both the chairman and manager should be applauded. But it won't last for ever, and Roy will surely go sooner rather than later; (3) We have nothing tangible to show for 6 years in the Premiership. Parts of the stadium (esp. the Arthur Waite stand) are an embarrassment. We all got excited about the new main stand plans, but they seem to have come to nought; (4) Our squad is old and threadbare, Wilf is clearly going to leave, there's not much sign of youngsters emerging from the Academy, and splurging millions on signings like Benteke and Sakho has been a mistake that shouldnt be repeated. Solutions? No obvious answers but: (1) Shouldnt we recruit a young deputy to Roy now with the idea he should assume the reigns in, say, 12 months time? (2) Shouldn't we make a start on the new stand now (and if JS wont sell the bit of land we need then modify the plans accordingly, allowing for expansion when/if that land becomes available)? (3) With the £50m from AWB and £70m+ from Wilf, surely it should be possible to sign half a dozen promising youngsters from lower league clubs assuming that, with good coaching and easing into first team duties, at least half will come good over next 12-18 months? (4) Couldn't the chairman convene a public meeting fans can attend where he outlines where he sees the club going (and how we get there) medium-term, so we can at least try to understand what the strategy is? Just read the post agree with most except the 6 seasons lets not forget this is the golden age 6 years of games against Man ure Liverpool, City etc.As long term Palace fans we all feel disaster is just around the corner so lets just enjoy it for as long it goes.
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cantrbury eagle

Canterbury 27 Dec 19 4.23pm

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Originally posted by manoftaste

This has been an interesting thread to read. Points I take from it are:
(1) We are playing very unattractive football. In the end, football is about entertainment, and there's not been much of that this season;
(2) We are punching above our weight, and for that both the chairman and manager should be applauded. But it won't last for ever, and Roy will surely go sooner rather than later;
(3) We have nothing tangible to show for 6 years in the Premiership. Parts of the stadium (esp. the Arthur Waite stand) are an embarrassment. We all got excited about the new main stand plans, but they seem to have come to nought;
(4) Our squad is old and threadbare, Wilf is clearly going to leave, there's not much sign of youngsters emerging from the Academy, and splurging millions on signings like Benteke and Sakho has been a mistake that shouldnt be repeated.
Solutions? No obvious answers but:
(1) Shouldnt we recruit a young deputy to Roy now with the idea he should assume the reigns in, say, 12 months time?
(2) Shouldn't we make a start on the new stand now (and if JS wont sell the bit of land we need then modify the plans accordingly, allowing for expansion when/if that land becomes available)?
(3) With the £50m from AWB and £70m+ from Wilf, surely it should be possible to sign half a dozen promising youngsters from lower league clubs assuming that, with good coaching and easing into first team duties, at least half will come good over next 12-18 months?
(4) Couldn't the chairman convene a public meeting fans can attend where he outlines where he sees the club going (and how we get there) medium-term, so we can at least try to understand what the strategy is?

Just read the post agree with most except the 6 seasons lets not forget this is the golden age 6 years of games against Man ure Liverpool, City etc.As long term Palace fans we all feel disaster is just around the corner so lets just enjoy it for as long it goes.

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rollercoaster Cornwall 27 Dec 19 5.06pm
Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig You are definitely right, JohnB but that's not entirely my point. My point is whether we can identify a viable business model that is profitable and sufficient for us to stay in the top tier. And whether this is it. If we buy a player for 15m, that is (however it's accounted for) 96k a week if we get them on a 3 year contract. If they're on 80k a week, that's 176k a week. To sign a player like that, they must be a first team starter. To get a Benteke or a Sakho you're basically looking at 250k a week in outlay, potentially with very little, if any, transfer market upside. Because if they under perform, who's going to pay them 120k-ish a week in wages? Whereas Meyer, Cahill, Guaita and Ayew may seem a bit uninspiring, but financially they are probably much better. Even if we never receive a fee for them. We look at some clubs and think they've been "ambitious". But maybe they've been unwise. I suppose it ties us to a high wage structure though if we prioritise low risk, low fee players because people come to learn what others earn. The plan makes good sense, could mean quite a high turnover of players and integrating them. I don't understand current sign-on costs, what fees agents etc get when a player such as Cahill signs. Key would be to find motivated senior pros such as Cahill not journeymen just after an easy life and a final pay check. Recent acquisitions (bar Camarasa, and we dont know why) are doing a good job. You have decribed a policy which could actually be one the club are following. Wouldn't it be great if we actually had a policy which had a chance of working.
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rollercoaster

Cornwall 27 Dec 19 5.06pm

Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig

If we buy a player for 15m, that is (however it's accounted for) 96k a week if we get them on a 3 year contract. If they're on 80k a week, that's 176k a week.

Whereas Meyer, Cahill, Guaita and Ayew may seem a bit uninspiring, but financially they are probably much better. Even if we never receive a fee for them.

We look at some clubs and think they've been "ambitious". But maybe they've been unwise.

I suppose it ties us to a high wage structure though if we prioritise low risk, low fee players because people come to learn what others earn.

The plan makes good sense, could mean quite a high turnover of players and integrating them. I don't understand current sign-on costs, what fees agents etc get when a player such as Cahill signs.
Key would be to find motivated senior pros such as Cahill not journeymen just after an easy life and a final pay check. Recent acquisitions (bar Camarasa, and we dont know why) are doing a good job.
You have decribed a policy which could actually be one the club are following. Wouldn't it be great if we actually had a policy which had a chance of working.

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dg1937 27 Dec 19 5.17pm
Originally posted by rollercoaster Back to topic: Even the most pessimistic (me) can see that we have a good chance of staying up this year. However, other teams are getting stronger year after year and we appear to have peaked a couple of years ago and are getting a weaker and older squad year after year. The recruitment philiosophy of the club looks very similar to what we saw at Sunderland. Buying prem experienced older players with little or no re-sale value and hanging in there. They managed a 10 year run in the prem but when they fell they fell big-time. Unless the club wake up very quickly (might already be too late) we will do the same. If you think this wont happen tell me why? Happened to Sunderland and they have better infrastructure than we do and, I would assume, a lower wage expectation than a London based club like us. This ^ is the post I've been meaning to write for the past couple of days. We may well be safe this year but we will always be one dodgy season away from catastrophe. I follow Sunderland's (mis)fortunes quite closely as a friend is a season ticket holder there. They had 10 years in the PL before the wheels came off (and they have come off in spectacular fashion). Only a handful of clubs are 'established' PL clubs and we aren't one of them and are unlikely to become one any time soon. With a modern stadium and crowds of 40,000+ Sunderland had a better chance of achieving 'established' status than us and they are currently slithering down L1. Our squad if wafer thin and ageing. There is no sign of any youth talent knocking on the door. You never know who might emerge AWB style but the fact Roy doesn't play them, which some attribute to his caution, is equally likely to be because they simply aren't good enough. And we are hamstrung due to previous over-ambitious signings and FFP. We do need to change our business model because, as another poster has commented, this one is unsustainable in the long term.
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dg1937

27 Dec 19 5.17pm

Originally posted by rollercoaster

This ^ is the post I've been meaning to write for the past couple of days. We may well be safe this year but we will always be one dodgy season away from catastrophe.

I follow Sunderland's (mis)fortunes quite closely as a friend is a season ticket holder there. They had 10 years in the PL before the wheels came off (and they have come off in spectacular fashion). Only a handful of clubs are 'established' PL clubs and we aren't one of them and are unlikely to become one any time soon. With a modern stadium and crowds of 40,000+ Sunderland had a better chance of achieving 'established' status than us and they are currently slithering down L1.

Our squad if wafer thin and ageing. There is no sign of any youth talent knocking on the door. You never know who might emerge AWB style but the fact Roy doesn't play them, which some attribute to his caution, is equally likely to be because they simply aren't good enough. And we are hamstrung due to previous over-ambitious signings and FFP.

We do need to change our business model because, as another poster has commented, this one is unsustainable in the long term.

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Tickled pink Cornwall 27 Dec 19 7.00pm
Originally posted by mattteo Disaster seems avoided or very much avoidable, as there are now 8 points clear of first relegation position (Aston Villa with 18 ). This is what should be counted, not that we're 3 points away from Europa League position. Cause let's face it- the attack is very poor and with only bang-average over a full year Ayew and out of form Zaha, team has the worst goalscoring record out of Top 15 teams. And many teams below will surely finish ahigher: Arsenal, Man United, Everton. Brighton is playing amazibgly well and deserved many more points (even though I know you all hate Brighton, their manager really did his job this season). So a 12-13 position at the end of the season will be golden for a team like Palace, with such a lack for goals. Edited by mattteo (26 Dec 2019 5.30pm) Disaster is avoided because of our defending, only four teams have allowed less goals into their net, you need to observe both ends.
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Tickled pink

Cornwall 27 Dec 19 7.00pm

Originally posted by mattteo

So a 12-13 position at the end of the season will be golden for a team like Palace, with such a lack for goals.

Edited by mattteo (26 Dec 2019 5.30pm)

Disaster is avoided because of our defending, only four teams have allowed less goals into their net, you need to observe both ends.

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Ginger Pubic Wig Wickham de L'Ouest 28 Dec 19 8.30am
Originally posted by rollercoaster The plan makes good sense, could mean quite a high turnover of players and integrating them. I don't understand current sign-on costs, what fees agents etc get when a player such as Cahill signs. Key would be to find motivated senior pros such as Cahill not journeymen just after an easy life and a final pay check. Recent acquisitions (bar Camarasa, and we dont know why) are doing a good job. You have decribed a policy which could actually be one the club are following. Wouldn't it be great if we actually had a policy which had a chance of working. Yeah that's what I'm wondering. If Meyer goes for free, and if he's on 120k a week, he's basically cost us £6.24m a season. Don't get me wrong, that's obscene and he's disappointed relative to our hopes, but we could easily have bought an equivalent player for £15m and 80k a week in wages. (ie about 9m a season). If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.
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Ginger Pubic Wig

Wickham de L'Ouest 28 Dec 19 8.30am

Originally posted by rollercoaster

The plan makes good sense, could mean quite a high turnover of players and integrating them. I don't understand current sign-on costs, what fees agents etc get when a player such as Cahill signs.
Key would be to find motivated senior pros such as Cahill not journeymen just after an easy life and a final pay check. Recent acquisitions (bar Camarasa, and we dont know why) are doing a good job.
You have decribed a policy which could actually be one the club are following. Wouldn't it be great if we actually had a policy which had a chance of working.

Yeah that's what I'm wondering. If Meyer goes for free, and if he's on 120k a week, he's basically cost us £6.24m a season. Don't get me wrong, that's obscene and he's disappointed relative to our hopes, but we could easily have bought an equivalent player for £15m and 80k a week in wages. (ie about 9m a season).

If you want to live in a world full of kindness, respect and love, try to show these qualities.

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